The Impact of Land Use Changes on the Future Tree Distributions Presented by Jin-Oh Kim Community and Regional Planning School of Architecture University of Texas at Austin

- Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) forms ozone in ground-level when mixed with nitrogen oxides from anthropogenic sources. - Differences in climatology including temperature and cloud cover, and land use strongly affect biogenic emissions. - Few studies have focused on the relationship between land use patterns and its impact on spatial variation in biogenic emissions densities. - Few studies have focused on the relationship between land use patterns and its impact on spatial variation in biogenic emissions densities. Introduction

Land Development Disaster (fire, flood, etc), disease (oak wilt) Natural Environment (soil, water, temperature etc.) Trees (oak) BVOC + Nitrogen Oxides Temperature, Cloud cover Relationship of Trees and Land Development in Air Quality Context Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds VOC Volatile Organic Compounds Human  Health

- In Texas, vegetation and forests in eastern and central Texas are the main sources of emissions of BVOC. - Even though most plants emit some VOCs, the largest emitters are oaks, pines, sweet gums, eucalyptus, and poplars. Problem Statements Density Map of Biogenic Emission in Texas in 1997 (EPA) High Emission Density

1. Predict Future Tree Distributions based on Land Use Scenarios 3. Recommendations to Improve Land use Scenarios Objectives 2. Understanding the Impact of Land Development on Oak Trees

Central Texas region (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell) Research Areas Data Sources Texas Vegetation Map (From Dr. David Allen) Land Development Scenario Maps (Dr. Barbara Parmenter, Envision Central Texas Project) USDA Soils Data for Central Texas Area (Statsgo State Soil Database) Color infra-red Digital Orthophoto  TNRIS,

Live Oak, Ashe Juniper Parks Post Oak, Woods, Forest and Grass Post Oak Woods and Forest Live Oak, Mesquite, Ashe Juniper Analysis of Vegetation Types in Central Texas

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Impact of Land Development on Trees Tree Distribution in 2001 Land Development Scenarios Proposed by Envision Central Texas Project

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Projection of Future Land Development Impact on Trees Trees in 2001

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Future Land Development Impact vs. Trees Downtown Town Residential Activity Center Large Lot Commercial Industrial

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Tree Existing Areas Predicted to be Developed Downtown Town Residential Activity Center Large Lot Commercial Industrial

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Development Types where Trees exist under Scenarios 1. Rural 2. Large Lot 3. Conservation rural 1. Residential 2. Rural 3. Large Lot 1. Large Lot 2. Residential 3. Rural 1. Conservation Rural 2. Activity Center 3. Rural

Prediction of Tree existing Areas Tree Area to be Preserved (under Scenarios) Pervious Cover Assumption (%) Tree Keeping Assumption (%) Actual Area of Trees to be Preserved Arc GIS Raster Calculations

Trees predicted to be preserved for each development type under Scenario A Development Types Area (square feet) Pervious cover (%) Pervious cover (square feet) % of Tree keeping (assumption) Area of Tree Preserved Rural Housing Large Lot Conservation Rural Residential Subdivision Activity Center Highway Commercial Industrial / Office Park Town City Downtown  ssumption Qualitative Research needs to be conducted

Areas where Trees exist predicted to be developed under Scenario A

Oak Tree Distributions 1. Post Oak, Woods, Forest and Grass 2. Live Oak, ashe Junifer Parks 3. Post Oak Woods and Forest

Soil Composition in Oak Tree Areas

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Land Development Impact on Oak Trees

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Future Development vs. Oak trees

Scenario AScenario B Scenario C Scenario D Future Development within Oak tree area

Conclusion & Future Work Some highly urbanized area was revealed in dense oak tree areas  Need to focus specific types of land development to avoid air quality deterioration