Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 What is Public Opinion? Chapter Five

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What is Public Opinion? The aggregation of people’s views about issues, situations, and public figures. Important to democracy. –Why? Need not be actively expressed. Law of anticipated reactions. –Public opinion influences government even though it does so indirectly and passively.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Sources of Public Opinion Socialization Personal Experiences Self-Interest Education Reference Groups The Media

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Measuring Public Opinion Sampling Error –The error that arises in the public opinion survey as a result of relying on a representative, but small, sample of the larger population. –Margin of error The answers provided by a random sample of 1500 Americans on any political question would fall within 3 percentage points of national opinion 95 percent of the time.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Measuring Public Opinion Selection Bias –The error that occurs when a sample systematically includes or excludes people with certain attitudes. –If a survey has selection bias it will NOT be representative of the larger population. –Of no scientific value. Measurement Error

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Measuring Public Opinion Measurement Error –The error that arises from attempting to measure something as subjective as opinion –Opinions are hard to quantify. –Answers can vary dramatically depending on how a question is asked. –Question wording can be: confusing, leading, or oversimplified.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Characteristics of Public Opinion Public Opinion is Uninformed –On many issues people have little information, here and in other countries as well. –Information costs are high. These are the time and mental efforts required to absorb and store information, whether from conversations, personal experiences, or the media.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Characteristics of Public Opinion Public Opinion is Uninformed –Issue publics: group of people particularly affected by, or concerned with, a specific issue –These people find relevant information valuable and can gather it more cheaply. Why does an ignorant America hinder measurement of public opinion? –People answer the questions whether they know anything or not.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Characteristics of Public Opinion Public Opinion is Not Ideological –Ideology: A system of beliefs in which one or more organizing principles connect the individual’s views on a wide range of issues. –Political elites tend to have well-structured ideologies. –Mass public: ordinary citizens for whom political involvement is limited--usually are NOT ideological

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Characteristics of Public Opinion Public Opinion is Inconsistent –Public may say one thing, but when asked again, may seem to say something else. –Sentiments may not always match their principles. –Why? –Ignorance, insufficient, and inaccurate information.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Governing by Public Opinion Power of Public Opinion –Does it influence public policy? –Public as a whole can be accurate reflection of public’s attitudes and concerns. –“Mood” of the public; can be rational. –In the aggregate = very stable –Clear trends are often followed by government.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Governing by Public Opinion Limits of Public Opinion –Public does not always get what it wants. –Small, vocal, and influential groups can sway congressional action.

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Governing by Public Opinion Ex: gun control –NRA versus a public that favors limits on guns –Theory: Public opinion in voting districts mattered most to members of Congress. Gun control was not a highly salient public opinion issue. Anti-gun lobby not as intense as pro-gun lobby.

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