Analyzing Population Growth in Carbondale and Du Quoin with the expansion of the Railroad over 150 years. Railroads in Illinois

The 1800’s witnessed dramatic expansion of the railroads throughout the United States.

Early Railroad Planning Map for Illinois

Illinois Central Railroad builds railroad line from Cairo to Chicago Entrepreneurs in Du Quoin and Carbondale purchase land near the planned rail lines. The cities of Du Quoin and Carbondale are surveyed and plots sold to potential citizens. Both cities incorporate in 1853 The first train rolls through the cities on July 4 th, 1854.

Carbondale Depot

Carbondale

Depot at Du Quoin

Southern Illinois Railroad Plans 1854

Southern Illinois Railroad Plans

Southern Illinois Grows Railroad Depots now indicated on maps.

YearPassengers Passenger Train Travel

Railroad travel was the preferred mode in the early 1900’s and the number of passengers grew dramatically. Photos supplied by family of Celeste Naumer Flavell

Passenger Traffic Data

CarbondaleDu Quoin Census Data Through 1920 Data as shown on TI-83 Calculator Population

Populations through 1920

Exponential Regressions Note: Logistic Regression will not work with the given data. The calculator gave a domain error. Du Quoin Carbondale

Predictions for 2000 Evaluate the exponential regression equations using the data through 1920 at the year 2000 PredictionActual Carbondale22,22925,063 Du Quoin44,8606,448 Carbondale Du Quoin

How good was prediction Original regression lines with all data. Carbondale Du Quoin Using Exponential Regressions, Carbondale was very close, but Du Quoin was far from correct. Carbondale: Predicted

Moving on to 2000

Current Amtrak Routes

New Carbondale Depot

Current Du Quoin Depot

Only 2 stops per day in Du Quoin

CarbondaleDu Quoin Census Data Through 2000

Populations through 2000

Exponential Graphs Carbondale Du Quoin All data was used to compute regression curve.

Exponential Predictions Exponential prediction for 2000 Actual population for 2000 Exponential prediction for 2050 Carbondale32,77825,06393,618 Du Quoin8,6256,44812,222

Logistic Regressions CarbondaleDu Quoin Carbondale Du Quoin

Logistic Predictions Logistic prediction for 2000 Actual population for 2000 Logistic prediction for 2050 Carbondale28,08325,06333,054 Du Quoin6,9756,4486,977

Conclusions The populations of Carbondale and Du Quoin can be modeled with a logistic equation that will predict population more accurately that an exponential regression. It appeared that both towns were growing exponentially prior to 1920 due to the fast growth of railroad usage for travel and freight. Carbondale still grew at a near exponential rate due to the expansion of SIU in the 1960’s. Du Quoin’s population leveled off and has shown little change in many years. Has SIU originally located just north of Du Quoin as was discussed, the population curves may be reversed.

Railroad Movies A romance of the rail A romance of the rail / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., Black Diamond express Black Diamond express / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., Arrival of McKinley's funeral train at Canton, Ohio Arrival of McKinley's funeral train at Canton, Ohio / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. OTHER TITLES Funeral train arriving at Canton Station CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Thomas A. Edison, Inc., Going through the tunnel Going through the tunnel / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898 Freight train Freight train / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898.

Current Passenger Train View a short movie

Links and References SIU-Carbondale Site for Adventures of the American Mind American Memories Collection Library of Congress Site Southern Illinois University at Carbondale Citing Internet Resources – Perry County Historical Society Book – 1984 United States Census 1850 through 2000 International Historical Statistics, The Americas City of Carbondale Website