ASEAN, Japan, & China

Outline zASEAN & Japan yLegacy of World War II yHistorical development of 3 periods yEconomic versus political/security spheres zEmergence of China zASEAN+3

Historical legacy zJapan’s aggression in Southeast Asia during World War II

Japan’s Appeal in WWII zJapan’s appeal to Southeast Asia during World War II yEconomic benefits xJapanese model for economic development since the Meiji Restoration of 1868 x``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” yAnti-colonialist x``Asia for the Asians” xnationalist movements

``Co-Prosperity Sphere” z``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” zJapan’s economic foreign policy During World War II zAbsorption of the economies of all occupied countries zExtraction of resources to fuel the war against the Allies

Consequence of WWII zHow did Southeast Asia change? yDecline of xWestern colonial power xthe myth of European superiority yRise in xSoutheast Asian independence movements xJapanese interests and influence in Southeast Asia xUS interests and influence in Southeast Asia yIntegration into global economy & community

Japan Returns (1950s) zUS strategy concerning Japan y``dynamo of wider regional recovery in Free Asia” ycontain Communism zClosure of China market in ‘50s & ‘60s yJapan’s economic dependence on US ymaterials & markets of Southeast Asia

Japan & Southeast Asia: 1 zJapan’s economic diplomacy in ASEAN ybilateral trade promotion & economic linkage x>1/4 of ASEAN’s total trade was with Japan xJapan invest more in ASEAN than US yAsian Development Bank ( ) yavoid taking any political initiative z1974: anti-Japanese demonstrations during Japanese Prime Minister’s visit

ASEAN Attitudes zSingapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew said in 1969: y``My generation and that of my elders cannot forget [WWII] as long as we live” y``The policy of our government is not to allow the unhappy experiences of the past to inhibit us from a policy which can enhance our growth rates by Japanese participation”

Japan & Southeast Asia: 2 zAnti-Japanese demonstrations of 1974 zFall of South Vietnam in 1975 zJapan began taking an active interest in the political affairs of Southeast Asia yfrom bilateral relations to focus on ASEAN

Japan’s Reaction to 1978 z1978: Vietnam invaded Cambodia ythreatened Japan’s economic interests yJapan maintained a dialogue with Vietnam zJapan’s reaction yaligned with US-ASEAN-PRC camp yhalted economic assistance to Vietnam ycalled for Vietnam to withdrew all troops from Cambodia

ASEAN’s Attitude to Japan zDistrust remained but reduced zFears of Japan’s imperialist tendencies remained but reduced

ASEAN-Japan Econ. Links zEconomic links strengthened yASEAN countries’ development programs needed Japan’s support and investment yJapan as an economic model & partner xMalaysia’s ``Look East”, Laos and Singapore’s ``Learn from Japan” yComplementary economies of Southeast Asia and Japan

Complementary Economies

Japan & Southeast Asia: 3 zSince the end of the Cold War zJapan redefined its role in international affairs after the Cold War zJapan-ASEAN relationship strengthened ygreater interactions xASEAN as a region and as an institution yJapan’s deeper involvement in regional affairs xmore politically engaged

Japan’s Political Role z1990: Tokyo Conference on Cambodia z1992: Japan sent 1,800 troops as UN peacekeeping forces to Cambodia zsince 1994: active participant in regional multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) zsince 1997: political/security dialogues with Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia

ASEAN Receptiveness zMalaysia Prime Minister Mahathir said in 1991: y``As we approach the year 2000, it is our hope that Japan will initiate changes in its policies that will effectively bring about an enhanced political, socio-cultural role in not only the Southeast Asia region but also in the global context”

Diminishing Role of History zAfter the Cold War yIncreasing economic interdependence between Japan & Southeast Asia yFear of Japanese remilitarization reduced yGeneration change y``China threat”

Rise of China zChina’s ``Reform & Opening-up” policy zIncreasing presence in Southeast Asia yExpanding trade yPolitical relations and influence xvisits by leaders xsummit meetings xsubstantive agreements on issues ranging from trade to military cooperation

Growing Regionalism (A+3) z1995: Asia-Europe Meeting in Bangkok yASEAN asked Japan, China, & South Korea to join as Asian representatives yJapan feared alienating US & China zUS & Australian reservations about a regional grouping in Pacific Asia yimpact on the success of APEC ypossible division of global economy

ASEAN+3 Summit zChina & Japan compete for regional leadership position zASEAN+3 summit has taken place at each of the ASEAN summit since 1997 zregular ASEAN+3 meetings of finance & economic ministers

Asian Financial Crisis (‘97) zJapan’s role in Southeast Asia ycontribution of funds and initiatives xemergency financial assistance xaid plan for regional human resource development xcooperation in information technology sector yinaction on banking reforms yineffective economic stimulus measures yASEAN urged faster action to help recovery

Asian Financial Crisis (‘97) zChina’s role yrefrained from devaluing yuan ycontribution of funds and initiatives yentry into World Trade Organization (2001) yASEAN-PRC Free Trade Area (2001) ythreatens Japan’s economic leadership in Southeast Asia

2001 ASEAN Summit zChina and ASEAN formally announced intention to start talks on establishing a free-trade zone within 10 years zSouth Korea proposed an ASEAN+3 free- trade area zPossibility of establishing an ASEAN+3 secretariat

2002 ASEAN Summit zChina yforgave the debts of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar yduty-free privileges for exports of the least developed members of ASEAN ysigned declaration on South China Sea ysigned framework agreement for ASEAN-PRC FTA beginning in 2010

Japan zJapan signed its first-ever free-trade agreement (with Singapore) in 2002

Conclusions zASEAN+3 have considerable potential yAPEC may be too broad yASEAN may be too narrow zContested regional leadership position between Japan and China yJapan most advanced economy yChina’s momentum