From Models to Decisions Amir Hakami Carleton University

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Where do models fit? Emissions are the only variable we can control. –Use models to provide Policymakers with tangible “decision metrics”. Emissions Meteorology Pollution Health Outcome Transport and Transformation Exposure Health Influences

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Improving air quality Reducing emissions is costly. Assessing the benefits of emission reductions in terms that are comparable with costs (i.e., monetized) enhances the decision-making process. What is the cost of action vs. inaction?

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Benefit from one average vehicle Value for Toronto and coastal California: $400-$800/yr Estimated benefit from the Toronto subway: $130,000,000/yr NB: A fraction of benefits (non-fatal, long-term, or PM effects not included) Pappin and Hakami, 2013

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Health benefits: marginal benefit/damage Mobile sources Point sources What the numbers mean? Marginal benefits are key decision parameters.

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Health benefits are substantial Abatement costs Health damage Marginal benefits and costs of NOx emission reductions from power plants in the US. Mesbah et al., 2013

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Bonus: increasing benefits with controls! Mobile Sources Point Sources

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Next steps for air quality scientists Facilitate integrated assessment. –Enhance our communication skills with other disciplines. Quantify/reduce various uncertainties in our understanding of processes that affect air quality. –Uncertainty is not a justified reason for inaction.

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Next steps for air quality scientists - II McRae and Cass (1981) Air quality model Decision model

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Next steps for air quality scientists - III Air quality model Decision model

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Comments/questions Thank you! Funding provided by NSERC, CIHR, Environment Canada, Health Canada

For Life and Breath May 1, 2014 Rate of change in marginal damage $ Marginal cost Marginal damage Emission level New optimal level