Counting Votes US- First Past the Post Plurality System May Minimize representation of minority opinions Partly responsible for 2 party politics Proportional representation Assign seats in proportion to total vote De-emphasizes individuals, emphasizes parties

Voter Behavior Two Key Issues Decision to participate Decision whom to vote for

Turnout Voting one form of political participation Lowest “cost” of participation Decision to vote a function of perceived benefit, probability of influencing outcome, cost of voting V=P(B)-C Doesn’t have to be explicit Most reasons people don’t vote fit into P, B, or C

Reasons for not voting Inconvenience (cost) One vote doesn’t matter (probability) Little difference between parties (benefit)

Reforms To Increase Turnout Motor Voter (1992) Easier Absentee voting National Holiday 2 Day voting

Who Doesn’t Vote? Those less interested in politics Young Less Educated Lower Income Blacks?Why? Job Flexibility Lack of Efficacy Lack of Civic Skills?

Non voting- Does it matter? No- Sign of general satisfaction No- curbs radicalism No- Sends message of dissatisfaction Yes- Winners will claim mandate anyway Yes- Opinions of non-voters very different from those of voters Yes- weakens system

What determines the vote? Long term predispositions Party Identification As a social grouping As a heuristic Ideology Ticket Splitting

What determines the vote? Demographic factors Race Blacks- Heavily Democratic Whites- Slight tilt Republican Asian/Latino- Mixed GenderIncomeEducationReligion

What determines the vote? Short term forces Issues Single issue voters Issue ownership Issue salience

What determines the vote? The economy RetrospectiveProspectivePocketbookSociotropic Most Important- Prospective Sociotropic Economy and prediction

What Determines the vote? CandidatesTraitsLeadershipStrengthCompetenceCompassion/empathyInsider/outsiderExperience

What determines the vote? The media PrimingImage Horse race

Political Campaigns-History Local campaigns- hands on Early Presidential Campaigns- not very public Various reforms make incentive for presidential campaign Popular vote tied to Electoral College Popular vote tied to Electoral College Nominating conventions Nominating conventions “Australian Ballot “Australian Ballot

Early Presidential Campaigns Considered tacky to directly seek office Surrogate campaigners first modern campaign: William Henry Harrison First person to directly run for office First national product campaign

Harrison 1840 Campaign Creation of image Log Cabin Log Cabin Hard cider Hard cider Tippecanoe Tippecanoe Media Mobilization Network of Whig newspapers, main one: The Log Cabin Network of Whig newspapers, main one: The Log Cabin Reinforced imagery Reinforced imagery Included songs, poems, stories, Included songs, poems, stories, Some issues Some issues Attacks on Van Buren Attacks on Van Buren

Harrison 1840 Campaign Rallies Bands Bands Banners Banners Floats Floats Log Cabins… Log Cabins… Rallies adapted from other forms, but new to campaign Whistle Stop

McKinley 1896 Changed Campaign Finance McKinley-business friendly “had about as much backbone as a chocolate éclair” – Teddy Roosevelt

McKinley 1896 Mark Hanna William Jennings Bryan “Education” campaign Front porch campaign State campaigns coordinated by national campaign New financing Don’t rely on party Don’t rely on party Solicit business Solicit business 1907 Tillman act

Campaign functions Raise awareness Create candidate image Convert undecided voters, weak supporters of opponent Mobilize supporters Emphasize key issues? Debate on the issues?

Do Campaigns Matter? Campaigns have become more professionalized $2.2 Billion Spent on 2004 Presidential campaign Republicans $1.14B Republicans $1.14B Democrats$1.08B Democrats$1.08B Does this buy anything?

Do Campaigns Matter Mixed findings Party preference still key determinant of voting Economic models strong predictors Alvarez successful predictions of winner and close to margin until 2000 Alvarez successful predictions of winner and close to margin until 2000 Based entirely on economic variables Based entirely on economic variables

Do Campaigns Matter Dalager-Voters uninformed or misinformed Looks at responses to Senate campaign Among voters, only 61% attempted to name an issue in their senate race Only 57% identified a correct one 42% of voters identified as most important a little mentioned issue

What determines the vote? Campaigns Public Appearances SpeechesDebatesSpinMisstepsAdvertising

General Campaign Turn out supporters Convert swing voters Target certain states Swing States Electoral College Votes Public Appearance

Campaign and the Media The Message Sound Bytes Campaign handlers Spin Horse race coverage Debates

Advertising Largest Campaign expenditure Narrowly or Broadly targeted Usually short spots IssuesImagesAttack

Negative advertising Widely despised May be effective Issue content Turnout Iyengar- Demobilizes voters Others- No effect on turnout, or even slight increase Stevens- Mobilization depends on expertise Backlash Interest Groups Free exposure

Campaign Finance FECA 1971-Federal Elections Campaign Act Caps donations Individuals $2000 per candidate per year $25,000 to party per year $95,000 per 2 year election cycle Majority of contributions from individuals, most well under limit

Campaign Finance and PACs Political Action Committees PACs-$10,000 Per candidate/year $15,000 to parties Parties- $30,000 to house candidates Most money to congressional candidates Usually to incumbents

Candidates Can fund themselves No limit on what may be contributed

Public funding Matching funds Accept limit on spending Matches donations of less than $250 up to $67,000,000 Bush 2000 does not take public funds in primary

Hard vs. Soft Money Hard Money- Limited by Federal Election Commission Soft money-mostly unlimited Organizational expenses National parties to local parties Issue advocacy ads Good or bad? Limited power to some groups Perhaps limited influence

Campaign Finance Reform Effects of money? Bob Dole- When people give money, they aren’t trying to buy good government Limited direct evidence Money and Speech?