How is the Climate Changing in the Prairie Provinces? What can we expect in the future? Elaine Wheaton Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas/ Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, SK December 11-12, 2000

Overview Past climate changes Past ecosystem changes Climate change factors Greenhouse gas concentrations Future expected climate changes Future expected climate impacts and adaptations

Global Annual Surface Air Temperatures This observed change is unlikely to be due entirely to natural fluctuations of the climate system 1 Huang and Pollack WMO Bulletin IPCC 1996

N. American Air Temperature Trends ( )

Prairies’ Temperature Trend (After Gullett and Skinner 1992)

Ecosystem Changes related to Climate Widespread changes in ecosystems are already occurring as affected by these climate changes These changes are consistent with climate change projections For example

Long-term snow cover variations for the Western Prairies The snow cover season has been shrinking, especially in the last 30 years (after Brown et al. 1995)

A widespread retreat of glaciers is occurring in the northern hemisphere Glaciers are an important source of river flow for the prairies (Demuth 1996)

Annual Ground Surface Temperature Change (1950 – 1990) (MBIS, 1997

Frequency of Winter Storms in the Northern Hemisphere

Frost Free Season …. ……is Lengthening

Heating and Cooling Degree-days for Regina and Saskatoon (Wilson, 1990)

Plant Growth Increased in Northern High Latitudes from Associated with lengthening of active growing season earlier disappearances of snow cover marked warming in the spring time an advance of up to 7 days in the timing of the drawdown of CO 2 in spring and early summer Myneni et al, 1997 Nature 386,

Time Variations in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for Selected Latitudinal Bands

Other Ecosystem Changes Edith’s Checkerspot butterflies have moved north and to higher elevations Sachem skipper butterflies have expanded their range from N. CA to Oregon and SE Washington Mexican voles have expanded their range into NE Arizona and Colorado Prairie grasses are declining in NE Colorado and being replaced with exotic weeds (Levy 2000) There are many more……

Climatic Change Factors and their Effects on the Earth's Climate Analysis demonstrates (statistically significant) that GHG’s are the dominant driver of climate changes in the past century. (Mann et al., others)

Greenhouse Gas Time Series

CO 2 Trends

Goldilock’s Earth

Balance of Evidence Suggests a Discernible Human Influence on Global Climate - IPCC 1996

Future Expected Climates Climate Models Agree that: (for mid-latitude N. Hemisphere) Winter temperatures increase faster than summer temperatures Night temperatures rise faster than day time temperatures Soil moisture decreases in summer and increases in winter Snow cover area and duration decrease Precipitation increases in winter, some decreases in summer

Global mean temperature change (°C) associated with the six IS92 emissions scenarios and the four SRES scenarios. Until recently, GCM experiments generally used the IS92a emissions scenario to define the future forcing. ( Barrow et al, 1999) Global Mean Temperature Change

Projected Winter Average Temperature Change 2010 to

Projected Winter Average Temperature Change 2040 to

Projected Summer Average Temperature Change 2010 to

Projected Summer Average Temperature Change 2040 to

Comparison of Observed and Modeled Climates General patterns and global temperatures are reasonably simulated. CGCM1 Simulation of 20th Century Change

Expected Changes in Extreme Weather- Examples Thunderstorms and hail events to increase Number of heat waves to rise Number of cold spells to decrease Northward shift of tornado and dust storm alleys Droughts and floods to increase and intensify Surprises?? Abrupt climate changes within decades have occurred before and are even more possible now

Annual Number of Hot Days - Now and in the Future

Drought and Flood Frequencies - Now and in the Future

Some Projected Agroclimatic Futures Longer growing seasons More frequent extremes – drought, floods, heat waves, hail storms, dust storms, wind storms, etc. Decreased snow cover area and spring re-charge Increasing demands for water and conflicts over water Northward expansion of insects and diseases Decreasing air, soil, and water quality Decreasing space heating demands, increasing air conditioning demands

ADAPTATION Share the Loss Bear the Loss Modify the Events Prevent the Effects Research Education, Behavioral Avoid the Impacts Structural, Technological Legislative, Regulatory, Financial Institutional, Administrative Market-based On-site Operations Change Use Change Location Adaptation Framework

Adaptation Research and Monitoring Needs Drought and frost tolerant crops Heat stress effects on livestock Water and soil conservation Irrigation improvements More fall seeding of crops More & improved climate information for management and planning

Adaptation Research and Monitoring Needs Modeling of climate-production- management relationships Nutrient management Enhanced communication among producers, climatologists, agrologists, and policy makers Preparation/coping with extreme events

Enhanced Monitoring SRC’s Saskatoon Climate Reference Station (C.Beaulieu )

More Climate Impacts and Adaptation Information

Public accessible information

More Collaborative Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research The Prairie Adaptation Research Cooperative is a facilitative, interdisciplinary research network established to understand the potential impacts of climate change on the Canadian Prairie Provinces and conduct research necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies.

C. Beaulieu

1988 Palmer Drought Index for the Prairies

Earth’s Heat Engine

Global Temperatures Comparison of Simulated by CGCM1 Historical and Modeled Patterns Observed