Student Visa Dashboard Year-to- date May 2014 Overall For discussion

Introduction The following dashboard is based on Immigration New Zealand (INZ) data on Student visas issued. This data source is the most immediate/instantaneous data available on the international education sector, as there is only a one month lag between student visas approved and INZ publishing the data. Student visa data is a strong indicator of whether students are remaining, leaving or entering New Zealand to study, which can be used as a predictor for future enrolment trends. Student visa trends allow us to analyse two key indicators: 1) retention of students and 2) growth of new students. We use first time student visas as an indicator of growth as it represents new students and the pipeline of students entering New Zealand. Total student visas gives us an overview of all student visas (ie: first time student visas and students re-issuing their visas). We can analyse the retention of students by subtracting first time student visas from total student visas.

Caveats and notes Student visas vs. visitor visas: –Total student visas (TSV), First time student visas (FSV), and renewed student visas (RSV) only capture students who enter New Zealand with a student visa. These students are planning to study for more than three months. –Students who undertake a course less than three months are not required to enter on a student visa – these students can enter on a visitor visa and therefore will not be captured in this dashboard. –This will impact the PTE (including the ELS) sector numbers. Student visas vs. enrolments: –There is potential delay of up to three months between students having their visas approved and actual entry into New Zealand, therefore the figures shown here may not necessarily represent the actual number of students currently in New Zealand. Work in progress: –ENZ is currently working on: Understanding the true demand of student visas – ie: TSV applications vs. TSVs approved. Understanding the correlation between ENZ Activity and policy changes on FSV trends Understanding the impact of RSV on overall trends. Further discussion will be required on the ownership and responsibility for retaining these students. Further work is being undertaken to understand a relatively large number of “Not recorded” entries for FSVs at the provider level Further analysis is being undertaken on understanding the correlation between student visas and enrolments.

How to read the dashboard Overall indicator of the overall performance of the market Name of the market/region The monthly result: Actual change in visa numbers Percentage change in visas Directional indicator The year-to-date result: Actual change in visa numbers Percentage change in visas Directional indicator Shows the year- end sector performance of actual FSVs numbers. Shows the Monthly sector performance of actual FSVs numbers. Shows the calendar year results for FSV + RSVs. This also demonstrates the proportional make-up of a market as we progress through the year, while comparing the overall result from previous years. These graphs show a monthly trend of actual visa numbers from 2011 – Key trends or interesting trends to consider This pie graph represents the sector distribution of FSVs YTD.

Key trends Year-to-date (YTD) January to May: There has been a 14% increase (5,541) in the total number of student visas approved year-to-date (2014 calendar year), when compared to the same period in India continues to grow with a 71% (3,273 TSVs) increase YTD. Indian FSVs have grown by 92% (2,329) YTD. There has also been some steady growth coming out of ASEAN up 9% (464 TSVs) and Latin America up 37% (433 TSVs) YTD. Growth experienced by Colombia is at record levels, with growth of 116% (175 TSVs) YTD. All sectors have experienced positive YTD growth in FSVs. Growth in the university sector has been steady, with a 3.5% (101) increase. The PTE sector is experiencing significant growth, up 76% (2,531 FSVs) YTD. May: May is the first negative result since June 2013, which is due to a “decline” in RSVs. The following slide explains this irregular result. May saw another strong result for FSVs up 36% (1,095 FSV). This is the strongest May on record, with over 4,100 FSVs being approved. The previous strongest May was in 2002 which had 3,850 FSVs approved. The growth in FSVs is driven by the Indian market, up 189% (664 FSVs). Colombian FSVs are at record levels up 400% (48). These students are predominantly enrolling in the PTE sector. With the exception of the primary school sector, all other sectors have seen strong growth in FSVs in May. May: The top five TSV increases : India ↑ 52% (528) USA ↑ 22% (92) Philippines ↑ 39% (78) Nepal ↑ 210% (42) Colombia ↑ 129% (40) May: Declines: China ↓30% (-643) South Korea ↓ 48% (-295) Saudi Arabia ↓ 33% (-102) Japan ↓ 38% (-101) Vietnam ↓ 49% (-74 ) Sector FSV trends, May Primary schools ↓ 2% (-2) Secondary schools ↑ 8% (46) ITPs ↑ 54% (46) Universities ↑ 15% (133) PTEs ↑ 80 % (701)

Analysis: Total student visa applications received These graphs demonstrate that RSVs and FSVs have two very distinct application processing trends. Some of the larger providers incentivise students to apply for RSVs earlier. This should create two peaks in RSVs: one in March and one in July. May 2013 saw a irregular peak. Anecdotal evidence from the sector suggests that this was a result of a backlog caused by a delay in processing of February and March 2013 onshore visas. The onshore graph shows that the 2012 and 2014 trend is very similar, however 2013 drops in February and March and peaks in May. This explains the sudden drop in RSVs that we are currently experiencing, as we are comparing May 2014 to a month that experienced inconsistent activity (May 2013). This irregular trend has impacted the onshore China market results the most (as it is largest overall market and therefore irregulars trends are more noticeable). July 2014 RSVs will be a key month as it should show another peak. This should even out the drop in RSVs experienced in May. The offshore applications (FSVs) are trending above previous years.

Overall performance RSV = Renewed student visas (TSV – FSV = RSV) FSV = First time student visas TSV = Total student visas Month on month performance:

Overall: Takeaways: The 2014 academic year continues to trend positively – with 52% of all students that are intending to study on a student visa, have had their visas approved. RSVs for May are down due to irregular visa processing trends. This should even out over the next couple of months YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

China: Takeaways: China continues to grow at a steady rate. RSVs declined by 49% in May – which is caused by students renewing their visas earlier than previous years, as YTD RSVs are still positive. YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

India : Takeaways: India continues to grow significantly, both in RSVs and FSVs We have experienced a significant, and a constant, “wave” of FSVs since September 2013 Since January 74% of all Indian FSVs intend to enrol in a PTE YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

ASEAN : Takeaways: The ASEAN market continues to trend positively for 2014 FSVs continue to grow Uni sector saw strong growth in May YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Thailand : Takeaways: There has been strong growth in FSVs It is difficult to forecast how this market preform, in-light of the current domestic political environment and the irregular FSVs trends it has experienced over the past three years YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Indonesia: Takeaways: This market has been tracking relatively flatly, however has taken a dive in May YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Viet Nam: Takeaways: This market appears to have started the 2014 academic well, however has taken a dive in May YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Malaysia Takeaways: This market continues to decline. The past three months has seen steady growth in FSVs YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

North East Asia (Korea + Japan): Takeaways: This region had a strong first quarter, however started to slow in April and has significantly declined in May - this is due a decline in Korean students YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Korea: Takeaways: This market started the 2014 academic year strong, however a sharp decline in April and May has slowed the YTD position. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this may be related to a change in domestic settings for traveling students YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Japan: Takeaways: This market has started the year in a strong position, however there was a sudden dive in May The PTE and Uni sectors have seen strong growth YTD. PTEs for May declined. YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

United States of America: YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs Takeaways: This market had a strong May result and has offset some of the decline seen in the earlier part of the year

Latin America: Takeaways: This market has started the year in a strong position The university and PTE sectors have seen strong growth YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Brazil: Takeaways: This market is trending positively, despite less secondary school scholarship students arriving in January, when compared to 2013 The university and PTE sectors have seen strong growth YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Chile: Takeaways: This market has had a very strong start to This is predominantly driven by the Chilean Penguins YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Colombia: Takeaways: This market has had a strong start to 2014 There has been significant growth experienced in the PTE and university sectors YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Middle East: Takeaways: This market has had a good start to the year, however has taken a significant dive in May While there has been growth across most sectors, there has been significant growth in the ITP sector YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Saudi Arabia : Takeaways: This market has started the year off strong, however has taken a significant dive in May. YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Europe: Takeaways: This market has been in steady decline, however a strong April and May has slowed the overall decline – which was driven by the secondary school and PTE sectors. YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs

Germany: YTD Sector breakdown of FSVs Takeaways: This market has been in steady decline, however a strong April and May has slowed the overall decline – which was driven by the secondary school sector