The Global Food Security Challenge ( GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th

World Development Report 2008 Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security  In ensuring adequate food supply  Global food supply and demand (and shocks)  National food supply and demand for many countries (Africa, China, India)  In providing means for poor to access to food  75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and most depend on agriculture for livelihoods  Essential role of agriculture in providing subsistence and incomes of the poor 2

World Development Report 2008 Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing Incomes of the Poor  Major conclusion of World Development Report 2008: Agricultural growth is two to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth coming from other sectors 33 Agricultural growth is especially beneficial to the poor

World Development Report 2008 WHITHER GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND? 4

World Development Report Critical land and water constraints % of population in absolute water scarcity Cropland per capita of agricultural population Global Markets ̶ Supply Side

World Development Report Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing Global Markets ̶ Food Supply

World Development Report 2008 Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change Price of Urea Fertilizer ($US/t) Climate change will negatively affect yields in the tropics, Source: Cline (2007) Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by at least 20%

World Development Report Changing diets ̶ Rising demand for high value products (and feed grains) Developing and transitional country exports Developing and transitional country consumption Meat Cereals Horticulture Global Markets: Demand Side

World Development Report 2008 Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New Factor in Global Markets 9 Source: OECD and FAO, 2008

World Development Report 2008 Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with Current Investment Trends 10 Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008

World Development Report Food Production—Continuing Challenges in the 21 st Century  A greater global challenge  More from less  The end of long-term falling food prices?  Trade offs with the environment  Increased volatility  Climate change, energy prices  Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export bans  Inclusive growth  Sharing benefits between producers and consumers  Connecting smallholders to emerging markets

World Development Report 2008 INVESTING FOR FOOD SECURITY 12

World Development Report Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and Institutional Innovations:  Technological innovations  Higher yield potential to revamp productivity growth  Overcoming key resource constraints (water, drought)  Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers  Substitution of fossil energy use  Adaptation to climate change and reduced GHGs  Institutional innovations  More efficient and inclusive supply chains  Collective action by farmer organizations  Risk management for more frequent price shock

World Development Report 2008 Agricultural R&D Intensity 2000 (% AgGDP) Agricultural R&D as a Share of Budget, More and Better Investments in R&D to Bridge Growing Divide Source: Pardey and Beintema,

World Development Report 2008 Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for R&D to Reverse Trends 15

World Development Report 2008 Implications for the Global Community  Do no harm  Reform farm and biofuel subsidies  Mitigation of climate change  Invest in global public goods  R&D (CGIAR)  Get agriculture back on the agenda  Reverse trend in foreign assistance  Revamp national food and agricultural strategies 16