Water Resources and International Conflict: Game Theory Kristina Schneider CE 384D Kristina Schneider CE 384D

“ The wars of the next century will be about water” - Ismail Serageldin, Vice – President of the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.

Overview The Nature of Water Resource Conflict Game Theory: A Brief Introduction Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin Conclusions The Nature of Water Resource Conflict Game Theory: A Brief Introduction Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin Conclusions

The Nature of Water Resource Conflict Water is not contained in political boundaries. Boundary over which rivers cross! Water is not contained in political boundaries. Boundary over which rivers cross!

Natural Limits Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources: Level of development desired Absolute availability Water Population supplied The quality of the water Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources: Level of development desired Absolute availability Water Population supplied The quality of the water

Resource Rivalry Potential causes of water disputes: Amount the resource is shared among the nations Degree of scarcity of water Relative power of each nation Accessibility of alternative fresh water supplies. Potential causes of water disputes: Amount the resource is shared among the nations Degree of scarcity of water Relative power of each nation Accessibility of alternative fresh water supplies.

Will War result? Most likely not! It is not strategically rational. It is hydrographically ineffective. It is economically infeasible. Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still: Causes more poverty Shortens lives Decreases the stability of the nation Most likely not! It is not strategically rational. It is hydrographically ineffective. It is economically infeasible. Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still: Causes more poverty Shortens lives Decreases the stability of the nation

Game Theory: A Brief Introduction Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome. -MSN Encarta Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible. - Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome. -MSN Encarta Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible. - Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy

Game Theory: A Brief Introduction The decision makers are called players. Two person or multi-person games exist. The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game. Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points. The decision makers are called players. Two person or multi-person games exist. The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game. Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points.

Game Theory: Assumptions Each player can chose between two or more clear choices. Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw. The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants. The players will act rationally. Each player can chose between two or more clear choices. Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw. The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants. The players will act rationally.

Game Theory: Payoffs Payoffs are often represented in matrix form. Payoffs determine what type of game is played. Zero-sum Games One player wins while the other loses. Non-zero-sum Games No straight forward answer exists. Payoffs are often represented in matrix form. Payoffs determine what type of game is played. Zero-sum Games One player wins while the other loses. Non-zero-sum Games No straight forward answer exists.

Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin

The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR Republics Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions: The river was contained in one nation Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels. Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions: The river was contained in one nation Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels.

The Toktogul Reservoir Main reservoir along the river Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Provides power - Kyrgyzstan Main reservoir along the river Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Provides power - Kyrgyzstan

Toktogul Model Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs. Three scenarios: Maximize irrigation needs Maximize power generation for both summer and winter. Baseline – no dam exists. Two flow regimes NNNNN NNDNN Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs. Three scenarios: Maximize irrigation needs Maximize power generation for both summer and winter. Baseline – no dam exists. Two flow regimes NNNNN NNDNN

Economic Results of the Model

Game Theory: Syr Darya Two person non-zero-sum game Players Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Upstream – Kyrgyzstan Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered Two person non-zero-sum game Players Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Upstream – Kyrgyzstan Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered

Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr Darya River Basin

Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr Darya River Basin

Analysis of Game Theory Application Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game. The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis. If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP. This is a logical choice. Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game. The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis. If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP. This is a logical choice.

Conclusions International Water Conflict will occur. Conflict situations will not be violent. Game theory is a valid tool to help in water resource decision making. The correct payoffs must be used to receive a correct solution to a game. International Water Conflict will occur. Conflict situations will not be violent. Game theory is a valid tool to help in water resource decision making. The correct payoffs must be used to receive a correct solution to a game.