1. ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. AEDGE, AgentKind, and Unique Tools for Complex Systems are registered trademarks of 21 st Century Systems, Inc. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI 1 June 17-19, 2008 Adding Culture to Command Decisions Robert Woodley, Michael Gosnell, and Warren Noll 21 st Century Systems, Incorporated

2. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 2 Outline 21CSI Introduction 21CSI Introduction Problem Space Problem Space Game Formulation Game Formulation Initial Data Source Initial Data Source Translating Data to Probabilities Translating Data to Probabilities Example Example Conclusions and Future Development Conclusions and Future Development

3. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 3 About 21st Century Systems 21st Century Systems, Inc.® (21CSI®) is a pioneer in agent-based decision support systems for time- & mission-critical uses 21st Century Systems, Inc.® (21CSI®) is a pioneer in agent-based decision support systems for time- & mission-critical uses Veteran-owned, founded in 1996 Veteran-owned, founded in 1996 Advance decision support tools with broad, highly diverse applications Advance decision support tools with broad, highly diverse applications Military Force Protection and Command & Control Military Force Protection and Command & Control Transportation & Logistics Management Transportation & Logistics Management Energy Assurance Energy Assurance Data Mining/Data Characterization Data Mining/Data Characterization 2005 & 2006 Inc. 500 List Selectee 2005 & 2006 Inc. 500 List Selectee 514% growth rate over last 3 years 514% growth rate over last 3 years Military Small Business Innovative Research Success Story Military Small Business Innovative Research Success Story 100% SBIR commercialization index 100% SBIR commercialization index 10 Offices located throughout U.S. 10 Offices located throughout U.S. Top Secret Facility Clearance Top Secret Facility Clearance 21CSI ® software technology patented with extensive, ongoing internal R&D 21CSI ® software technology patented with extensive, ongoing internal R&D

4. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 4 Cultural Significance "We can no longer bypass the population centers if we expect to win." "We can no longer bypass the population centers if we expect to win." General George William Casey, Jr. (Brookings Institution December 2007) Interaction must occur locally Interaction must occur locally Local culture can vary Local culture can vary How to incorporate cultural knowledge? How to incorporate cultural knowledge?

5. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 5 Threat Response Framework Provide a dynamic game-theoretic framework for analyzing threat response Provide a dynamic game-theoretic framework for analyzing threat response Anticipate responses Anticipate responses (LA) Lethal Action (LA) Lethal Action (VA) Violent (non-lethal) Action (VA) Violent (non-lethal) Action (NA) Non-Violent Action (NA) Non-Violent Action

6. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 6 Game Theory Review Simultaneous vs. Sequential Games Simultaneous vs. Sequential Games Payoff MatrixExtensive Form

7. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 7 Zero-Sum and Payoff Player gains at expense of other Player gains at expense of other Monetary payoff? Monetary payoff? Loss of life? Loss of life? Probabilistic Payoff Probabilistic Payoff

8. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 8 Framework Basics Probabilistic Payoff Probabilistic Payoff Extensive Form Extensive Form Sequential Game Sequential Game How is culture incorporated? How is culture incorporated?

9. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 9 World Value Survey Around 80 countries (6 continents) Around 80 countries (6 continents) Local researchers Local researchers Questionnaires covering hundreds of aspects Questionnaires covering hundreds of aspects Social Social Cultural Cultural Religious Religious Political Political

10. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 10 World Value Survey Questions Have you, might you, or would you never participate in … Have you, might you, or would you never participate in … Signing a petition Signing a petition Joining in Boycotts Joining in Boycotts Attending lawful demonstrations Attending lawful demonstrations Joining unofficial strikes Joining unofficial strikes Occupying buildings or factories Occupying buildings or factories Please choose the one which best describes your own opinion. Please choose the one which best describes your own opinion. The entire way our society is organized must be radically changed by revolutionary action The entire way our society is organized must be radically changed by revolutionary action Our society must be gradually improved by reforms Our society must be gradually improved by reforms Our present society must be valiantly defended against all subversive forces Our present society must be valiantly defended against all subversive forces Of course, we all hope that there will not be another war, but if it were to come to that, would you be willing to fight for your country? Of course, we all hope that there will not be another war, but if it were to come to that, would you be willing to fight for your country?

11. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 11 Preliminary Probabilities Baseline generated from WVS answers Baseline generated from WVS answers Response to each type of initiating action Response to each type of initiating action Violent action response to initiating non-violent action Violent action response to initiating non-violent action

12. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 12 Preliminary Probabilities Response to each type of initiating action Response to each type of initiating action Responses to initiating violent actions Responses to initiating violent actions

13. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 13 Individual Matrices

14. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 14 USA Initiating Action Against Mexico

15. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 15 Mexico Initiating Action Against USA

16. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 16 Conclusions A culturally-aware response framework A culturally-aware response framework WVS data was used to automatically provide a baseline payoff matrix WVS data was used to automatically provide a baseline payoff matrix Multiple payoff matrices provides insight into the likelihood of nonviolent, violent, and lethal response actions Multiple payoff matrices provides insight into the likelihood of nonviolent, violent, and lethal response actions A tool which dynamically provides tangible, quantitative values of the probabilities of each outcome from an interaction between groups A tool which dynamically provides tangible, quantitative values of the probabilities of each outcome from an interaction between groups

17. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 17 Future Development WVS data only provides a starting point WVS data only provides a starting point More detailed group analysis (more detailed than countries) More detailed group analysis (more detailed than countries) Automated methods for payoff calculations Automated methods for payoff calculations

18. UNCLASSIFIED Proprietary to 21CSI ©2005-2008 21 st Century Systems, Inc. 18 Questions? Dr. Robert Woodley Ft. Leonard Wood, MO Robert.Woodley@21csi.com (573) 329-8526 www.21CSI.com