Economic Outlook Nevada Taxpayers Association March 02, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Outlook Nevada Taxpayers Association March 02, 2010

Nevada Taxpayers Association 2 Where Are We Now? Source: What is your outlook for… Inflation Interest Rates Growth Profits The Dollar

Nevada Taxpayers Association 3 Business Quality: Where Are We Now? Sustained recovery in 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 4 Business Quality: Where Are We Now? Some measures of growth show a gloomier result Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 5 Where Are We Now? Employment will eventually regain its peak, but not quickly Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 6 Inflation Inflation is not yet a concern for the Fed Timing of Recovery Will Vary Across Metro Areas Inflation Indicators Historical Perspective Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor, NYMEX and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 7 Credit Spreads The monetary base continues to grow, more slowly now Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 8 Bank Viability—Supply: Financing Lending standards have eased noticeably for large & medium firms Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 9 Bank Viability: Yield Curve Yield curve is steep but we expect flattening ahead Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 10 Business Demand: Manufacturing Manufacturing sees recovery in output and orders Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 11 Business Demand: New Orders Signs of life have appeared in business spending Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 12 Business Demand: Housing The declines in construction are behind us, but recovery will not be quick Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 13 Business Demand: Small Businesses Renewed confidence is still distant Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 14 Business Demand: Large and Medium Firms Credit demand is still minimal Source: Federal Reserve and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 15 Difficult Choices The deficit soared during the crisis, and remains large relative to the economy Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 16 Global Economies Economic and political fundamentals will drive the dollar upward Source: Federal Reserve and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada

Nevada Taxpayers Association 18 Nevada Construction, leisure & hospitality services were important drivers of NV growth, but were crushed in the recession Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 19 Nevada The housing boom generated an excess supply of new homes, and new activity is on hold until existing inventory is absorbed Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 20 Nevada Migration patterns in the west support Nevada’s population growth, though the boom years will not likely return in the near future Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 21 Nevada The overbuild in housing and flood of foreclosures continue to wreak havoc on prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 22 Nevada Las Vegas’ reliance on gaming helped in the boom, but now retards the recovery Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 23 Nevada The majority of home sales are the result of foreclosure—no new construction is needed Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 24 Nevada Population growth will likely be slower than average for several years Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nevada Taxpayers Association 25 Nevada The market is flooded with properties and prices will continue to fall until supply and demand begin to align Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Appendix

Nevada Taxpayers Association 27 Recent Special Commentary Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications To join any of our research distribution lists please visit our website: economics A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary

Nevada Taxpayers Association 28  Diane Schumaker-Krieg Global Head of Research & Economics Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group  John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist   U.S. Macro Economy  Real Estate   U.S. Macro Economy   U.S. Macro Economy   Global Economies Mark Vitner Senior Economist Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D. Global Economist Scott Anderson, Ph.D. Senior Economist Eugenio Aleman, Ph.D. Senior Economist   U.S. Macro Economy   U.S. Macro Economy  Business Investment   U.S. Macro Economy   Global Economies  Business Investment Ed Kashmarek Economist Tim Quinlan Economic Analyst Kim Whelan Economic Analyst Yasmine Kamaruddin Economic Analyst   U.S. Macro Economy  Financial Services   Quantitative Macro- Economic Modeling   U.S. Consumer  Real Estate   Real Estate  Retail & Automotive Sam Bullard Economist Anika Khan Economist Azhar Iqbal Econometrician Adam G. York Economist Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wachovia Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Bank N.A, Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2010 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE