1. #CHAMBERECON

2. Dr. Jay Bryson Global Economist

3. The U.S. Economic Outlook
Jay H. Bryson, Managing Director and Global Economist
January 24, 2017

4. Real GDP Forecast
Our forecast looks for the economic expansion to continue in coming quarters
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

5. Growth in consumer spending should generally remain solid
Real PCE Forecast
Growth in consumer spending should generally remain solid
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

6. Business Fixed Investment Forecast
Growth in BFI spending should stabilize once the cutbacks in the energy sector come to an end
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

7. Government Spending Forecast
Growth in government spending likely will strengthen somewhat, even without more infrastructure spending
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

8. Current Account Deficit
What will happen to U.S. trade policy in coming years?
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

9. Federal Deficit
As a percent of GDP the budget deficit is less than 3 percent at present
Source: CBO, U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 9

10. Under current legislation, the long-term trend is not very encouraging
U.S. Debt Held by Public
Under current legislation, the long-term trend is not very encouraging
Source: Congressional Budget office and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 10

11. There is less slack in the labor market today
U.S. Unemployment Rate
There is less slack in the labor market today
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 11

12. Average Hourly Earnings
Wage inflation is trending higher
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 12

13. The underlying rate of inflation is slowly starting to trend higher
PCE Inflation
The underlying rate of inflation is slowly starting to trend higher
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 13

14. The Fed likely will tighten further, albeit at a slow pace
Fed Funds Target Rate
The Fed likely will tighten further, albeit at a slow pace
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 14

15. Global GDP Growth
We forecast that global GDP growth will remain below its long-run average in 2017 and 2018
Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

16. Oil Prices
Slow global growth and excess supply likely will keep oil prices depressed for some time
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017

17. Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group
Diane Schumaker-Krieg …………………
Global Head of Research & Economics
Global Head of Research and Economics
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist
Sarah House, Economist …………… …………
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… …
Jamie Feik, Economist
Economists
Chief Economist
John E. Silvia … …
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....……
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist …
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist…
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………
Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist …………… …………….
Economic Analysts
Senior Economists
Misa Batcheller, Economic Analyst
Michael Pugliese, Economic Analyst
Julianne Causey, Economic Analyst
E. Harry Pershing, Economic Analyst
Administrative Assistants
Donna LaFleur, Executive Assistant.
Dawne Howes, Administrative Assistant
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities. ("WFS") is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. ("WFBNA") is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. Wells Fargo Securities does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2017 Wells Fargo Securities.
SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE
Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients
For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited ("WFSIL"). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. For purposes of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the "Materials") are provided for general informational purposes only. 17 17 17