Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Sonja Vidič Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia Overall responsibility for V&A in National Communication Sonja Vidič Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia Overall responsibility for V&A in National Communication For Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communication from annex I parties, Dublin, 30 September – 1. October, 2004 For Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communication from annex I parties, Dublin, 30 September – 1. October, 2004

Adaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation... UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation... Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation... UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation... UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation... Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation...

Adaptation to Climate Change Adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate change stimuli, their effects or impacts Adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate change stimuli, their effects or impacts to reduce vulnerability to moderate damages to realize opportunities to reduce vulnerability to moderate damages to realize opportunities By climate change we understand climate, climate variability and induced climate change (natural and anthropogenic). By climate change we understand climate, climate variability and induced climate change (natural and anthropogenic).

Vulnerability to Climate Change depends upon Vulnerability to Climate Change depends upon Exposure to Climate Change Risks and Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks Exposure to Climate Change Risks and Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE for NCR Croatian Case 22 scientists and experts working in 8 teams, coming from 10 Institutions

Sectors considered: Climate Water resources Agriculture Forestry Biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems Coastal areas Marine ecosystems and fishery Health Past and present climate Future climate Structure of research in V&A of the FNCCC

CLIMATE CHANGE incl. Variability CLIMATE CHANGE incl. Variability Human Interference Human Interference Initial Impacts Effects Initial Impacts Effects Expected Adaptations Expected Adaptations Residual or Net Impacts Residual or Net Impacts VULNERABILITIES IMPACTS Policy Responses Policy Responses dangerous? vulnerable? MITIGATION of Climate Change via GHG sources and sinks MITIGATION of Climate Change via GHG sources and sinks Planned ADAPTATION to the Impacts and Vulnerabilities Planned ADAPTATION to the Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Synthesis: Main Assumptions and Findings 1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts How ? Examples from present 2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs How ? Examples from present 3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes Show, connect different sectors 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits How ? Examples from present 5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes Examples from present 1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts How ? Examples from present 2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs How ? Examples from present 3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes Show, connect different sectors 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits How ? Examples from present 5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes Examples from present

6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups Present knowledge should be used to stress important national circumstances 7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks Explain, give examples from present knowledge 8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable International co-operation ! 9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient 6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups Present knowledge should be used to stress important national circumstances 7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks Explain, give examples from present knowledge 8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable International co-operation ! 9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient Main Assumptions and Findings

The way forward Continue to improve/exchange methods and tools Closer co-operation among parties and more direct exchange of experiences, framework that will support it More integrated approach: More information for the assessment should come from knowledge and data about present climate/adverse climate events and related socio-economic consequences Continue to improve/exchange methods and tools Closer co-operation among parties and more direct exchange of experiences, framework that will support it More integrated approach: More information for the assessment should come from knowledge and data about present climate/adverse climate events and related socio-economic consequences

The way forward up to now Climate change Climate scenarios Downscaling, other methods Assessment of impacts and vulnerability (different methods) Adaptation Capacity Adaptation measures to be integrated over oll sectors Climate change Climate scenarios Downscaling, other methods Assessment of impacts and vulnerability (different methods) Adaptation Capacity Adaptation measures to be integrated over oll sectors

The way forward Present data on climate and climate variability Assess impacts, vulnerability, adaptive capacity over all sectors, each sector should evaluate the the consequences of the same event integration !! Investigate adaptation measures taken (social, economical, institutional) Put the whole exercise in the contecst of future climate scenarios discuss probabilities for non-linear events conclusions about best mitigation options Present data on climate and climate variability Assess impacts, vulnerability, adaptive capacity over all sectors, each sector should evaluate the the consequences of the same event integration !! Investigate adaptation measures taken (social, economical, institutional) Put the whole exercise in the contecst of future climate scenarios discuss probabilities for non-linear events conclusions about best mitigation options