RATIONAL DECISION MAKING MODEL 1. RECOGNIZE, DEFINE PROBLEM OPPORTUNITY

RATIONAL DECISION MAKING MODEL GATHER “RELEVANT” INFO DIAGNOSE CAUSE(S) ASSUMPTIONS! BE AWARE OF THEM UNDERSTAND THEM

REARRANGE “NEW DOOR” TO MAKE ONE WORD.

IN WHAT ORDER ARE THESE NUMBERS?

PROBLEMS WITH DEFINING PROBLEM TASK INSTRUCTIONS PERCEPTIONS “EXPERIENCE” “MENTAL SETS” JUDGEMENTAL

PROBLEMS WITH DEFINING PROBLEM (CONT’D) “SOLUTION MINDED” NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION NOT ENOUGH TIME CONFUSING PROBLEM AND CAUSE(S) INITIAL “SUCCESS/FAILURE”

PROBLEMS WITH DEFINING PROBLEM (CONT’D) LIMITED/BOUNDED RATIONALITY –LIMITED CAPACITY/CAPABILITY –SATISFICING –SEQUENTIAL ATTENTION –BARGAINING “BEHAVIORAL MODEL”

RATIONAL DECISION MAKING MODEL 2. DEVELOP ALTERNATIVES 3. EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES –UNDERSTAND CONSEQUENCES

RATIONAL DECISION MAKING MODEL 4. CHOOSE (DECIDE) 5. IMPLEMENT 6. EVALUATE, CONTROL

TYPES OF DECISIONS PROGRAMMED –REPETITIVE –ROUTINE –HANDLED WITH DEFINITE APPROACH

TYPES OF DECISIONS NON-PROGRAMMED –UNIQUE –NONRECURRING –HANDLED WITH CUSTOM RESPONSE

DECISION CONDITIONS CERTAINTY –100% SURE RISK –REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF PROBABILITY UNCERTAINTY –CANNOT EVEN ESTIMATE PROBABILITY

DECISION MAKING STYLES DELIBERATE/RATIONAL IMPULSIVE

DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES INDIVIDUAL GROUP –BRAINSTORMING –NOMINAL –DELPHI

FOCUS STRATEGIC OPERATING TACTICAL

TOOLS MARGINAL ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT EXPERIENCE EXPERIMENTATION

TOOLS MATHEMATICAL MODELS DECISION TREE CHARTS

I IIIIV II URGENT NOT URGENT IMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT SETTING PRIORITIES

“WE SELDOME HAVE TIME FOR THE IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE ARE WORKING ON THE IMMEDIATE AND THE IMMEDIATE IS SELDOM THE IMPORTANT” - Peter Drucker