Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi

Lambert and Chiang, (2007)

OLS regression for Model Φ GFDL CM /- 0.2 GFDL CM /- 0.2 GISS E-R1.5 +/- 0.1 MIROC 1.5 +/- 0.2 MRI0.9 +/- 0.2 Observations1.6 +/- 0.1

OLS regression for : residual variance Modelr GFDL CM GFDL CM GISS E-R0.013 MIROC0.016 MRI0.029 Observations0.009

Into the future

Some references Hansen et al., (1983) Manabe et al., (1991) Huntingford and Cox, (2000) Sutton et al., (2007) Joshi et al., (2008)

Structure of talk Motivation Simple model of land-sea contrast. Comparison with complex models. Some stuff that I don't really understand.

∆N = ∆Q, ∆T = 0

∆N = 0, ∆T = ∆T eq

∆T = 3K, ∆N = ∆T / λ

∆A in some idealised 2xCO 2 and prescribed SST experiments.

And ∆T L against ∆T O

Structure of talk Motivation Simple model of land-sea contrast. Comparison with complex models. Some stuff that I don't really understand.

© Crown copyright Met Office CRUTEM3 vs HadISST

© Crown copyright Met Office CRUTEM3 vs HadISST2 (masked to 1900)

© Crown copyright Met Office CRUTEM3 vs HadISST2 (masked to 1900) 1.5 +/ /- 0.3

© Crown copyright Met Office HadISST2 (masked to 1900)

© Crown copyright Met Office , constant Φ HadISST2 (masked to 1900)

Conclusions Annual mean ∆T L / ∆T O is remarkably constant – especially in observations. Simple model and GCM study suggests powerful land-ocean heat transport. Early 20 th century behaviour is different / problematic.