1. The Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 Simulations
Yanni Ding1, James Carton1, and Gennady Chepurin1 (& Mike Steele & Sirpa H.)
1Dept. Atmospheric and Ocean Science, UMD
FAMOS 2013
11/21/2018
ERS-2/Envisat tandem flight (from pictures kindly provided by ESA)

2. Historical ensembles full forcing
Models
Historical ensembles full forcing
Model Name
Model Center
Ocean resolution
Grid 1
CanESM2
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
1.4⁰x0.9⁰x40lev
regular 2
CCSM4*
National Center for Atmospheric Research
1.1⁰x(0.27⁰-0.54⁰)x60lev
displaced 3
CNRM-CM5
CNRM, France
1⁰x(1/3⁰-1⁰)x42lev
tripolar 4
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0
CSIRO, Austrilia
1.875⁰x0.9375⁰x31lev 5
GFDL-CM3
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
1⁰x(1/3⁰-1⁰)x50lev 6
GFDL-ESM2M 7
GFDL-ESM2G 8
GISS-E2-H
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
1⁰x1.25⁰x32lev 9
GISS-E2-R
1⁰x~1⁰x32lev 10
HadCM3
Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K.
1.25⁰x1.25⁰x20lev 11
HadGEM2-ES*
1⁰x(1/3⁰-1⁰)x40lev 12
IPSL-CM5A-MR
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France
2⁰x2⁰x39lev 13
MPI-ESM-LR*
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
1.5⁰x1.5⁰x40lev 14
MRI-CGCM3*
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
1⁰x0.5⁰x50lev 15
NorESM1-M
Norwegian Climate Centre
1⁰x1⁰x70lev
*Wang and Overland (2012) approved

3. Annual Sea Level Pressure L L H H L L
HadSLP2 L
Siberian & Beaufort High, Aleutian and Icelandic lows H L
(Allan and Ansell 2006)
Unit: mb

4. Fresh Water storage (for Andrey)
Observation
Fresh water is defined as the the salinity less than the mean SSS to the north of 75N
(Serreze et al. 2006)
Unit: m

5. Mean ocean volume transport {still checking this}
Obs
CanESM2
GISS-E2-H
HadGEM2-ES
Bering Strait
0.96Sv
0.16Sv
0.66Sv
Greenland-Iceland
-5.97
-4.16
-7.84
East of Iceland
5.02
4.08
7.72
West of Greenland
-0.01
-0.2
-0.67
0.8Sv
7-7.2Sv
Gfdl cm3 has +2Sv through CAA Sv

6. Salinity (colors), Temperature (contours) at 150m depth
Annual climatology
TEMPERATURE
SALINITY
(Carton et al. 2011)

7. Differences in Atlantic water along 68N Salinity (colors), Temperature (contours) along 68N

8. AW variability

9. AW Temperature anomalies
CCSM4
AW Temperature anomalies
GFDL-CM3

10. Temperature/Salinity relationship for GFDL-CM3

11. Advection: lag correlation between SST’ and AW SST’
HadCM3 Run # 5 3 1
Local net surface heating rate vs heat storage anomalies 4 2 4

12. NAO Forcing
OBSERVED
(Dickson et al., 2000)

13. NAO index vs heat content for HadCM3 [NAO index : 1st PC of winter SLP’]
HC’
NAO

14. Arctic Ocean HC changes: 1986-2005mean – 1861-1880mean
(e.g. Boe et al. 2009)

15. Some Points for Discussion
Time mean
Time mean states ~ in line with observations but transports are different.
‘Atlantic Water’ is present, although its T/S characteristics vary
Seasonal
{see poster}
Variability
Active AW variability. Both interactions with the atmosphere (e.g. surface heating) and exchanges with the Atlantic subpolar gyre are involved.
NAO in all models but its centers are displaced. NAO not driving most AW variability.
The way heating is being distributed in the Arctic on centennial timescales varies(we’re just beginning to look at this).
We’d be interested in a group organizing some comparative analysis of the CMIP5 results