Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION CLIMATE EFFECTS AND FEEDBACKS OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES 36th Open-ended Working Group of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol 20-24 July 2015 Paris, France Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK) HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY

Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel THE 2014 ASSESSMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS BY WHICH STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION CAN AFFECT HUMANS, OTHER ORGANISMS, AND THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PRIMARILY THROUGH RESPONSES TO UV RADIATION. 44 authors/co-authors from 17 countries, and 45 reviewers. Report assessed 1600 research papers, covering subject areas from cancer biology to construction polymers, and from marine phytoplankton to global changes in UV radiation. THIS SUMMARY WILL FOCUS ON THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS RELEVANT TO THE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY

STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES CLIMATE EFFECTS AND FEEDBACKS INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B) RADIATION UV-B radiation = 280-315nm EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY

CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITH THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL With few exceptions, changes in UV-B radiation since the 1990s are small, and due less to the effects of ozone depletion than to other factors (cloud, snow and ice cover) At several Arctic and Scandinavian sites, this led to an averaged increased erythemal (sunburning) dose by 40-50% Large short-term increases in UV-B have been measured at some locations in response to episodic decreases of ozone at high latitudes, including the Northern hemisphere. Arctic ozone depletion in spring 2011 led to measured short-term increases (80-160%) in UV-B radiation in Alaska, Canada, Greenland & Scandinavia, and modelled increases (15-25%) at lower latitudes

CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL Without the Montreal Protocol, by the end of 21st century UV radiation around the globe would have exceeded levels previously experienced even in the most extreme environments. Now a body of published research modelling the changes in UV radiation that would have occurred over the 21st century WITHOUT successful control of ODS. The calculated clear-sky UV index for November 2065 in the “expected future” (with the Montreal Protocol) compared with that in the “world avoided” (with no Montreal Protocol). From Newman and McKenzie, 2011 Values over 11 are considered extreme Maximum UVI without the Montreal Protocol is approx. 25 WITH MONTREAL PROTOCOL WITHOUT MONTREAL PROTOCOL

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION Future changes in UV radiation may affect tropospheric chemistry in ways that will increase the severity of ground- level ozone and particle pollution, with possible negative consequences for health in some areas. EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation UV exposure Detrimental effects of too little UV Damaging effects of too much UV RESEARCH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAS CLARIFIED THAT HUMAN HEALTH CAN BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED FROM EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE UV RADIATION With the Montreal protocol (Now) the balance between these contrasting effects of UV RADIATION is largely determined by personal circumstances and behaviour

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation With the Montreal protocol, changing behaviour by many fair-skinned populations with regard to sun exposure has probably had a more significant effect on human health than increasing UV-B irradiance due to ozone depletion. Strategies to avoid over-exposure to solar UV radiation remain important for public health, but should aim to balance the harmful and beneficial effects of sun exposure. With the Montreal protocol (Now)

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too much UV SHORT TERM LONG-TERM SKIN Sunburn Increased skin-cancers Basal cell & squamous cell carcinomas Malignant melanoma EYES Inflammation (photo-conjunctivitis) Increased cataract and pterygium IMMUNE SYSTEM: immune suppression leading to increased susceptibility to infection, reduced response to vaccinations

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Models can, necessarily, only estimate skin cancers in the “world avoided.” Further refinement is required but the “ball-park” estimate of two million fewer cases of skin cancer per year by 2030 indicates the scale of the health benefits of the Montreal Protocol. Total number of new cases of skin cancer per million people per year avoided by the Montreal Protocol in the year 2030. From van Dijk et al., 2013 Without the Montreal protocol (world avoided)

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation The success of the Montreal Protocol in protecting human health will be covered in more detail in the OzonAction side event at lunch-time today. 13.00 in Conference Room IX.

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION OZONE-DEPELTION-RELATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems No new negative environmental effects of the substitutes for the ozone depleting substances or their breakdown-products have been identified EEAP is producing an updated paper on the environmental effects of TFA for its interim report later this year. EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS HFCs degrade to produce tri-fluoroacetic acid (TFA) which accumulates in water bodies. No new evidence that predicted TFA accumulation will pose a significant threat to aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Improved understanding: The role of solar UV radiation in air quality (e.g. aerosols, ground-level ozone) and water chemistry (e.g. heavy metals), and that such changes may affect ecosystems. Solar UV radiation has significant direct effects on many organisms and environmental processes. INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B) RADIATION INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems New understanding highlights the vulnerability of organisms and environmental processes (including food production) to very large increases in UV radiation that would have been caused by uncontrolled stratospheric ozone depletion. However, there have been no “world-avoided” models for these effects, so their magnitude in a world where the Montreal Protocol had not controlled ozone-depleting substances has not been quantified for ecosystems. Without the Montreal protocol (world avoided)

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems With a few exceptions, changes in UV-B irradiances due to factors such as cloud, snow and ice cover, and UV penetration into water bodies have a more significant effect on ecosystems than UV changes due to ozone depletion over the last three decades. Southern hemisphere ecosystems have responded to severe ozone depletion, partly due to increased UV radiation, partly due to climate-mediated effects. With the Montreal protocol (Now)

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS REGIONAL CLIMATE OZONE-DEPELTION-RELATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN CLIMATE DUE TO OZONE-DEPLETION RAINFALL TEMPERATURE WIND EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Widespread climate-mediated ecological changes in the S Hemisphere correlated with the Antarctic ozone “holes” since the 1980s. Increased tree growth in southern Alps. Decreased tree growth due to drought. Slower moss growth & changes in lake biodiversity Rapid changes in phyto-plankton communities

EEAP REPORT Overview The success of the Montreal Protocol in preventing large, wide-scale increases in UV radiation has now been quantified through modelling “the world avoided”. Because large increases in UV radiation have been prevented, major effects of ozone depletion on human health have been avoided. The scale of damage to health in the “world avoided” is beginning to be quantified. Major effects of ozone depletion on most ecosystems have also been prevented, but the effects of Antarctic depletion on regional climates is having measurable impacts in the S Hemisphere, even outside of Antarctica. Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)