Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Environmental Effects Assessment Panel
22nd MOP Bangkok Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change Janet F. Bornman, co-chair Nigel Paul, Xiaoyan Tang, co-chairs

SAP EEAP TEAP Stratospheric chemistry, climate
Depletion of strato-spheric ozone (O3) UV-B radiation O3 depleting substances Air Quality Ecosystem health and services Materials Human health ODS applications, cost-effective options

Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP
22nd MOP Bangkok Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP KEY FOCUS AREAS FROM THE FULL ASSESSMENT REPORT 2010 Interactions with climate change Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation Human health Terrestrial ecosystems Aquatic ecosystems Biogeochemical cycles Air quality Materials

Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation
KEY FINDINGS Strong interactions between O3 depletion & climate change Future predictions for sun-burning UV-B radiation - effects of O3, clouds & aerosols Consequences for human Vitamin D production World avoided – implications for effects (UV-B radiation, nm) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

sufficient to induce sunburn
Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation Currently UV-B radiation: Large variability due to clouds & aerosols Mid-latitudes: increased UV-B irradiances: ca 5% relative to 1980 Large increases in UV-B radiation in areas of large O3 depletion sufficient to induce sunburn S Hemisphere: cloudier overall than corresponding NH (global satellite data)

Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation
Projected changes in ozone and clouds Cloud cover increases at high latitudes (by ca 5%) Reduction of UV radiation (UV already low) More difficult to achieve optimal exposure times for sufficient vitamin D production Cloud cover decreases at low latitudes by ca 3% (near the equator) Increase in UV radiation (UV already high) Additional increase in sunburning-UV of 3 to 6%

The Montreal Protocol has PREVENTED
large increases in sun-burning UV radiation (UV index) 1980 2020 2040 2065 Total chlorine (ppbv) 2 11.5 20 40 O3 (DU) 310 250 220 100 UV Indexmax 10 12.5 15 30 UV Index: an estimation of the UV levels important for the effects on the human skin calculated using observed & currently predicted chlorine concentrations UV index for clear skies predicted by a climate-chemistry model versus year for two future scenarios: (black curve) the “world avoided” by implementing the Montreal Protocol, and (red curve) a “reference future” calculated using the observed and currently predicted chlorine concentrations. The UV index is calculated using the July 30o – 50o N zonal-mean ozone, and for local noon on 2 July. The horizontal grey line shows the 1975–1985 average from the fixed chlorine simulation

Human health Impacts of UV-B radiation on:
KEY FINDINGS Impacts of UV-B radiation on: Increasing cataract & skin cancer incidence Decreased immunity Interactions with climate change Vitamin D production Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Human health Need for balancing potential beneficial effects of UV with over-exposure: Importance of vitamin D Produced in the skin following UV-B irradiation Supports bone health May decrease risk of: - several internal cancers - autoimmune & infectious diseases - cardiovascular diseases Effectiveness of oral vitamin D supplementation? High vitamin D status beneficial? Internal cancers. Suggested mechanism Solar UV radiation prevents cancer through vitamin D production Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Human health Exposure to sunburning UV-B radiation
Major environmental risk for skin cancers Cutaneous malignant melanoma Squamous cell carcinoma SUPER-IMPOSE A TEXT BOX WITH INFO BELOW: annual incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) varies geographically from between 5 and 24 per 100,000 in Europe and the USA34-36 to over 70 per 100,000 in higher ambient UV radiation regions of Australia and New Zealand Even in locations with lower incidence, there are specific high-risk groups such as non-Hispanic white men older than 65 years in the USA, where the incidence is greater than 125 cases per 100, In Australia, melanoma is currently the third most commonly reported cancer in men and women overall, and the commonest in women aged years.40 CMM is uncommon in individuals under the age of 20, although an increase of 2.9% per year between 1973 and 2003 in the USA has been reported in a recent review.41 Many studies in various countries indicate that the incidence of CMM has increased by 1-3% per year over the past half century In a few instances it has stabilised over recent years,37, 47 particularly in people younger than 40 years. For example, in Sweden, the previously rapid increase in the incidence of CMM in teenagers from 1973 levelled off between 1983 and 1992, and since then has decreased.48 This situation has been attributed to intensive public health campaigns over the past 30 years or so advocating avoidance of sunburn and seeking medical care promptly if pigmented skin lesions arise.49-53 _______________ non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs): basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) For example, the incidence of BCC increased by 3% per year from in the UK,75 and the incidence of SCC increased four-fold from in Sweden.54 The incidence of NMSC in Australia in 2002 was five times greater than the incidence of all other cancers combined.76 Non-melanoma Basal cell carcinoma M. Norval Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Human health Most common eye cancer in adults May be a link between
UV-B radiation & incidence Malignant melanoma of the eye A. Cullen Occurs in ca 5-20% of the population Often after first spring/summer exposure UV-induced allergy S. Ibbotson Legend: Figure 1. Intraocular malignant melanoma: (a) an amelanotic iris melanoma with nutrient blood vessels, causing a rolling out (ectropion) of the pigment layer and distortion of the pupil, and (b) a dome-shaped choroidal melanoma with mottled appearance (photographs supplied by Dr A, Cullen, University of Waterloo, Canada). Ocular melanoma Limited evidence indicates that there may be a link between solar UV-B radiation and the development of ocular melanoma. Such tumours include both external, involving the eyelid and conjunctiva, and intraocular tumours, involving the iris, ciliary body and choroid (collectively known as the uvea). The latter comprise the majority of ocular melanomas and are the most common primary eye cancer in adults with a reported annual incidence per million of 6 in fair-skinned and 0.3 in dark-skinned individuals ______________ UV-induced sun allergy Polymorphic light eruption (PLE) is the most common of the disorders that are provoked by sunlight, occurring in about 5-20% of the population. It is most frequent in the spring or early summer, or during a sunny holiday, following the first exposure to an intense dose of sunlight, and is characterised by red, itchy skin eruptions (Figure 4). Figure 4. Subject with polymorphic light eruption showing pruritic skin eruptions on sun-exposed body sites (photograph supplied by Dr S. Ibbotson, University of Dundee, Scotland).

World avoided: Human health protected
By 2065: Peak values of sun-burning UV radiation could have tripled at mid-northern latitudes With the MP, clear-sky UV radiation _only slightly greater than that prior to the start of O3 depletion Future sun-burning UV radiation with and without the Montreal Protocol. Sun-burning UV radiation with and without the Montreal Protocol P. Newman, R. McKenzie

Human health Combinations of climate change & solar UV radiation
Higher temperatures likely lead to more skin cancers For the same UV irradiance: for every 10C increase, estimated 3-6% increase in skin cancers Several indications of further interactions Increase in certain infectious diseases (malaria, Lyme) Increase in allergic diseases Suppression of the immune response to disease Increased photosensitivity of the skin (temp., dust -deserts) Higher temperatures likely lead to more skin cancers for the same exposure to UV radiation Lyme disease (a bacterial infection spread by ticks) and leishmaniasis (a protozoal infection spread by sand-fly bites) Climate factors suggested to affect infectious and other human diseases include increased water temperature leading to increased survival of waterborne agents, increased rainfall leading to increased breeding sites for insect vectors, increased humidity leading to enhanced microbial survival in the environment, decreased seasonal exposure to solar UV-B radiation leading to lower vitamin D levels with diminished protective effects, increased atmospheric pollutants leading to less efficient mucociliary action, and changing rainfall patterns and ocean temperatures that result from long term natural variabilities such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation events. Skin sensitivity increase: UV, and Recent changes in the climate of Pusan include increased air temperature all year round, expanding desertification with Asian dust and a year-by-year increase in sunshine duration.

Terrestrial ecosystems
KEY FINDINGS Decreased plant productivity in areas of large ozone depletion Climate change & land-use change: Regional increased UV-B radiation UV radiation and climate change: - Implications for food security & quality - Evolving ecosystem modifications & acclimation to UV radiation & climate Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Plant productivity & adaptation/repair Plant growth is reduced in response to increased UV ca 6% reduction in plant growth since 1980 in areas of significant ozone depletion Caused by: - direct damage - increased diversion of plant resources towards protection and repair processes Consequences: - long-term effects of reduced plant growth may be important for potential carbon capture/retention

UV-B radiation causes damage in Antarctic plants
Loss of green pigment Reduced growth Green pigment used for energy capture & growth Pigment loss + UV - UV High pigment levels UV-B causes -yellow plants Loss of chlorophyll Increase in antioxidant pigments No change in UV-B screening pigments Shorter stems First evidence of negative effect of UV on an Antarctic plant Leaf density 7% higher under UV 26% of leaves mutant form compared with 12% without UV Confocal pics show healthy chlorophyll as red, can see in the UV treatment cells with no chlorophyll and that means no photosynthesis. Microscopic views Turnbull et al. 2005

Many plants produce screening pigments that protect against UV damage (induced antioxidants)
Mosses Lettuce + UV + UV - UV Other examples of the protective molecules produced by plants, in response to UV radiation include the red pigments seen in lettuces (c; top), whilst those shielded from UV are mostly green. Similarly, Antarctic mosses shielded by small stones are green (d: centre) whilst the plants around them produce protective red pigments. Nigel’s lettuce picture + UV S. Robinson N. Paul

Combinations of predicted climate change & UV radiation Effects on plant and ecosystem response Example 1 Spread of plant pests with increasing temperature, rainfall + >>> UV-B radiation: large effects on plant interactions with pests Induces increases in certain compounds usually decreases plant consumption by e.g. insects Important implications for food security and quality

Combinations of predicted climate change & UV radiation Effects on plant and ecosystem response Example 2 Moderate drought: decreases UV sensitivity in plants But further decreases in rain + increasing temperatures: Reduced plant growth and survival Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

UV radiation and global environmental change Example 3 Predicted reduced cloud cover (low latitudes) Deforestation Land-use changes Increased UV radiation exposure Promotes decay of dead plant material important ecosystem process for nutrient cycling also CO2 loss to the atmosphere

Aquatic ecosystems KEY FINDINGS Increased exposure to UV radiation with climate change Potentially greater vulnerability to UV radiation Changes in UV transparency of waters Increased in some regions Decreased in others Consequences for sensitivity of waterborne human pathogens to UV radiation Detrimental effects of solar UV‐B radiation have been demonstrated for many aquatic organisms. In contrast, relatively little information is available regarding consequences on biodiversity and species composition as well as the interactions between trophic levels within natural ecosystems. Climate change will alter the exposure of aquatic organisms to solar UV radiation by influencing their depth distribution as well as the transparency of the water. Increased temperature due to climate change tends to decrease the depth of the upper mixed layer, thus exposing cells to higher irradiances. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is the major factor influencing UV transparency in most inland waters and coastal areas. In some regions, DOM concentrations have nearly doubled in the past 20 years. Since some waterborne human pathogens are sensitive to solar UV radiation, changes in DOM may alter their exposure and inactivation. Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Main factors affecting the quantity & quality of UV radiation received by aquatic organisms Ozone layer UV attenuation Clouds,aerosols Main factors affecting the quantity and quality of UV radiation received by aquatic organisms

Penetration of UV-B, UV-A radiation and visible light
in an alpine lake High UV irradiance Low levels of dissolved organic matter >>> penetration Irradiance as % of surface 1 10 100 UV-B, 305 nm 5 UV-A, 380 nm Depth, m 10 Visible light 15 20 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Aquatic ecosystems Climate change and solar UV radiation
Environmental climate‐driven changes may exceed protective strategies to adapt to UV radiation Increasing temperature increases breakdown of dissolved organic material More UV exposure to aquatic organisms Increasing CO2 Increases acidity (low pH) Decreases skeletal formation in calcified organisms more vulnerable to solar UV‐B radiation Increases acidity Decreases skeletal formation in calcified organisms (e.g., phytoplankton, corals)

Biogeochemical cycles
KEY FINDINGS UV radiation & climate change interactions accelerate global carbon cycling Effect of decreased uptake of atmospheric CO2 by oceans on living organisms Causes & consequences of increased production and release of nitrous oxide Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
Central to UV and climate change Solar UV radiation Carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Climate change Biogeochemistry of trace gases and aerosols Feedbacks Quantification of the scale remains difficult, but the interactions and feedbacks have been established

Biogeochemical cycles
Predicted increase in atmospheric CO2 may enhance global warming beyond current predictions Projected warmer and drier conditions increases UV-induced breakdown of dead plant material Negative effects of climate change & UV radiation on aquatic organisms decrease uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the oceans Climate-related increases in run-off of organic material from land to oceans and UV-induced breakdown of this material increase emission of CO2 from the oceans

Biogeochemical cycles Increasing production of nitrous oxide, (N2O)
Climate-related increase in run-off also increases nitrogen input in to the oceans; further N inputs from atmosphere Increasing production of nitrous oxide, (N2O) Increases O3-depletion Increases the GH effect Increases UV radiation N2O: Mainly from natural sources & human activities (e.g., agric.) _____________________________ Oxygen depletion in the ocean, coupled with increased inputs of reactive nitrogen from rivers and the atmosphere, will lead to changes in nitrogen cycling that will result in increased production and release of nitrous oxide that will further increase global warming as well as stratospheric ozone depletion (Figure 7) As CFC emissions drop in response to compliance to the Montreal Protocol, the importance of nitrous oxide as an ozone depleting substance (ODS) will escalate throughout the 21st century. ___________________________ From Richard Z Climate-change related changes in circulation are leading to decreases in oxygen concentrations that enhance nitrous oxide production in the ocean. The increases in N2O production are projected to be particularly pronounced in near coastal areas as shown in Figure 7. The UV connection relates to the fact that N2O is playing an important role in stratospheric ozone depletion (which enhances UV-B radiation reaching the Earth's surface), This role is on the upswing as N2O fluxes increase and CFC levels decrease. N2O also is an important greenhouse gas and increases in stratification linked to climate change lead to reduced productivity and increased UV penetration into the upper ocean. This in turn positively feeds back to oceanic N2O production by reinforcing decreases in oceanic oxygen concentrations. _______________

Tropospheric air quality
KEY FINDINGS Projected increase in tropospheric ozone (low & mid-latitudes) Implications of changes in climate, pollutants & stratospheric O3 on human health & the environment Likely insignificant effect of breakdown products of ODS substitutes -hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) -hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Future changes in emissions of pollutants together with changes in climate and stratospheric ozone will modify the chemistry of the lower atmosphere and thus directly affect human health and the environment. Ultraviolet radiation is one of the controlling factors for the formation of photochemical smog which includes tropospheric ozone and aerosols; it also initiates the production of hydroxyl radicals, which control the amount of many climate- and ozone-relevant gases in the atmosphere. Uncertainties still exist in quantifying the chemical processes and wind-driven transport of pollutants. The net effects of future changes in UV radiation, meteorological conditions, and anthropogenic emissions may be large but will depend on local conditions, posing challenges for prediction and management of air quality. Aerosols composed of organic substances have a major role for climate and air quality, and contribute a large uncertainty to the energy budget of the atmosphere. Aerosols are mostly formed via the UV-initiated oxidation of volatile organic compounds from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, although the details of the chemistry are still poorly known and current models under-predict their abundance. A better understanding of their formation, chemical composition, and optical properties is required to assess their significance for air quality and to better quantify their direct and indirect radiative forcing of climate. Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

∙OH is predicted to decrease globally by ca 20% by 2100
Tropospheric air quality Future changes in UV radiation & climate will modify air quality UV initiates production of hydroxyl radicals (∙OH) A controlling factor of photochemical smog With O3 recovery, less UV ∙OH is an atmospheric ‘cleaning agent,’ destroys many air pollutants, ODS, GHGs ∙OH is predicted to decrease globally by ca 20% by 2100 Certain regions of low and middle latitudes Tropospheric ozone - projected to increase over the next years because of interactions of emissions (nitrogen oxides), chemical processes, and climate change drivers (temperature, humidity) Of concern for future protection of human health and the environment Consequences Potential for increased photochemical smog Negative effects on human health, environment

Tropospheric air quality
Predicted changes in surface ozone between 2000 & 2050 because of climate change and interactions with atmospheric chemistry Tropospheric air quality Further increase in tropospheric O3 in mid-latitudes (ca 4 ppbv) Drivers used in the models for this: - doubling of CO2 - 50% increase in emissions of plant compounds (isoprene) - doubling of emissions of soil-derived NOx (from human activity, and from the ocean) Alternate graphic for Figure 4 Predicted changes in surface ozone between 2000 and A, shows changes predicted for additional emissions of precursors. B, shows the change in ozone predicted to result from changes in climate. C, shows the result for the Combined impact of increased emissions of precursors of O3 and increases resulting from climate change.

Breakdown of CFC replacements into trifluoroacetic acid (TFA)
Salt lakes with no outflow, loss by evaporation only – negligible effects from TFA Small fraction of TFA from natural sources – negligible effect Breakdown in soil and water TFA HFCs, HFOs, and HCFCs CF3- CXyH O CF3-C-OH CF2Cl-C-OH Breakdown of CFC replacements into trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) chlorodifluoroacetic Q&A CH6 Fig 2 The main breakdown product, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and other related short-chain fluorinated acids are presently judged to present a negligible risk to human health or the environment. The hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as they have a smaller effect on the ozone layer. The HFCs and HCFCs are largely degraded before reaching the stratosphere. HFCs and HCFCs break down relatively rapidly into several products including persistent substances such as trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and chlorodifluoroacetic acid. The compounds are washed from the atmosphere by precipitation and reach surface waters, along with other chemicals washed from the soil. Microbiological degradation slowly removes these substances from the water. In locations where there is little or no outflow and high evaporation (seasonal wetlands and salt lakes), these products are expected to increase in concentration over time. The effects of increased concentrations of these naturally occurring mineral salts (from natural sources such as undersea vents and volcanic activity) and other materials would be greater and more biologically significant than those of breakdown products of the HFCs and HCFCs. TFA is very resistant to breakdown, and amounts deposited in flowing surface water will ultimately accumulate in the oceans. Based on estimates of current and future use of HFCs and HCFCs, additional inputs to the ocean will add only fractionally (less than 0.1%) to amounts already present. ___________________________ Decomposition of substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can break down into trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and monofluoroacetic acid MFA accumulates in oceans, salt lakes, and desert basins (playas) However, increased loadings of TFA and MFA judged to have an insignificant effect on humans and other organisms __________________ From previous report: Trifluoroacetic acid -- breakdown product of HCFC, HFC No new evidence to suggest that TFA will have adverse effects on humans or the environment Worst-case estimate of release of TFA from complete conversion of HFCs and HCFCs  global increase of 22,000 kt of TFA by planned phase- out of the HFCs and HCFCs increase in TFA in the oceans by ca ng/l TFA: currently judged to present a negligible risk to human health or the environment

Materials damage Implications of climate change for
KEY FINDINGS Implications of climate change for construction materials UV radiation degrades plastics & wood Increased damage with high temperatures, humidity, & atmospheric pollutants Current availability of photostabilisers as protective measures/agents Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Effect of climatic variables on light-induced degradation of materials
+, effectiveness Increase in Solar UV Increase in Temp. Increase in Humidity Increase in Pollutants S, NOx, O3 Polymer ++++ +++ + Wood ++

Materials damage UV radiation and climate change shorten useful outdoor lifetimes of materials Improved stabilisation technologies Allow service lifetimes of materials to be maintained or improved Some control of deleterious environmental effects Stabilisers Relatively high solar UV radiation stability Plastic nanocomposites and wood-plastic composites Nanofillers in composites Improved stabilisation technologies allow service lifetimes of materials to be maintained or improved, despite increased solar UV-B levels can control the deleterious effects of environments with enhanced UV radiation and temperature to some extent and only for some types of the common plastics relatively high solar UV stability Plastic nanocomposites and wood-plastic composites use of nanofillers in composites is effective Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

UV radiation discoloration effects on polymer pigments
UV-caused chalking of vinyl siding & rundown with rain UV-caused chalking from titanium dioxide in rigid PVC Degraded surfaces release titanium dioxide bound in the PVC matrix Titanium dioxide (TiO2)-photostabiliser for plastics Titanium dioxide (TiO2) Photostabiliser for plastics shows chalking due to UV degradation of vinyl (or PVC) siding and rundown with rain water Chalking in rigid PVC siding is due to UV in sunlight. This is because the degradation of surfaces releases the titanium dioxide bound in the PVC matrix. When the hand is run over the siding, the titanium dioxide ribs off like chalk Discoloration due to UV is common. This shows that the organic pigment in the polymer or paint underwent degradation and changed color (not the plastic itself) ______________________ Control of photodegradation of plastics & wood: Using surface modification with appropriate coating chemistry Clear polyurethane coatings reduce UV-B-induced yellowing/ discoloration of wood Photostabilisers for plastics: Hybrid organic-inorganic polymers (ceramers)

Adapted from Fabiyi et al. 2008 & Taylor et al., 2009
Materials damage Use of composites to lessen UV degradation of materials Adapted from Fabiyi et al & Taylor et al., 2009 Products made with wood-plastic composites Pine wood surface after 2 years of outdoor exposure Figure 1: Left: Magnified image (electron micrograph) of HDPE/Pine wood composite with an inset at the same magnification, showing the surface after 2 years of outdoor exposure in Idaho (USA). Adapted from Fabiyi et al., Right: Processed wood plastic composite product. Reproduced with permission from Taylor et al., 2009.

Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
LINKAGES: Environmental effects of O3 depletion & its interactions with climate change Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Current & future climate change interactions with UV radiation add to the uncertainty of many aspects of environmental impacts Solar UV radiation Climate change Processes are defined, but the magnitude of the effects remains a challenge Previous central box: Changes in the concentration of aerosols and atmospheric gases: Stratospheric ozone and ozone-depleting gases CO2 and other greenhouse gases Aerosols and gases that affect tropospheric air quality Human health Materials

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