28/05/2008 The demand for personal air transport in Europe ILA Conference Berlin, 28 May 2008

28/05/2008 Page 2 Which potential transfer of traffic from existing transport modes to personal air transport in 2020?

28/05/2008 Page 3 Method Estimation Method Generalised Cost method including: –The direct cost borne by the traveller –The travel time and its associated cost value  A traveller will choose the transport mode that minimizes his/her generalised cost

28/05/2008 Page 4 Indifference curves

28/05/2008 Page 5 Method

28/05/2008 Page 6 Connections Potential connections total regional connections in Europe potential connections for Personal air transport (=24% of the total connections) Criteria Accessibility Economic attractiveness Curent traffic Distance

28/05/2008 Page 7 Transport modes –EPATS generalised cost for traveller compared with the corresponding gesneralised costs of Road transport Traditional air transport High speed rail transport –High-speed rail not kept since always preferred to EPATS

28/05/2008 Page 8 Data collection –Sources: Various databases from previous EU projects: DATELINE, TREMOVE, ASSESS, etc. EUROSTAT National statistics organisms Etc. –2020 scenarios: ASSESS scenarios (Assessment of the contribution of the TEN and other transport policy measures to the mid-term implementation of the White Paper on the European Transport Policy for 2010)

28/05/2008 Page 9 Traffic 2020 European Personal Air Traffic 100% Business traffic 2020 European people: wealthier and more mobile 152 billions passengers kilometres 319 millions passengers

28/05/2008 Page Flights 44 Million Flights 43 Million Flights

28/05/2008 Page Flights TOP 10 connections between countries 1.France-Spain 2.Portugal-Spain 3.Italy-France 4.United-Kingdom-Ireland 5.Poland-Germany 6.United-Kingdom-France 7.Italy-Spain 8.Italy-Austria 9.France-Germany 10. Italy-Greece

28/05/2008 Page Fleet personal aircraft in Europe

28/05/2008 Page 13 France EPATS traffic and fleet in France –302 French domestic EPATS connections –Estimated Traffic: 15 billion Passenger-Km 36 million passengers 4.7 million flights –8400 personal aircraft: 71% piston 23% turboprop 6% jet

28/05/2008 Page 14 Poland EPATS traffic and fleet in Poland –70 Polish domestic EPATS connections –Estimated Traffic: 8 billion Passenger-Km 28 million passengers 4 million flights –7000 personal aircraft: 87% piston 13% turboprop 0% jet

28/05/2008 Page 15 Sensitivity analysis Operating cost may increase in the future: Strong fuel price increase New environmental taxes New material in aircraft to be compliant with SESAR Etc. An increase of 30% in the personal air transport cost would lead to: 40% traffic decrease : 191 million Pax 65% flight decrease: 15 million flights 72% fleet decrease: personal aircraft

28/05/2008 Page 16 Sensitivity analysis France: 44% traffic decrease : 20 million Pax 67% flight decrease: 1.5 million flights 80% fleet decrease: personal aircraft Poland: 90% traffic decrease : 3 million Pax 95% flight decrease: flights 72% fleet decrease: 200 personal aircraft

28/05/2008 Page 17 Conclusion –  demand in personalized transport services –  needs in high-speed transport in remote areas  –Transferred traffic to personal air transport in 2020: 3% of the total European traffic – personal aircraft – personal aircraft if their operating cost increases by 30% (fuel cost, taxes, SESAR requirements, etc.)

28/05/2008 Page 18 Thank you very much for your attention! Any questions?