need to clarify what is possible.... Variables  settable  measurable  inferrable  observable  estimable  aspirational  hypothetical Relationships  simple causal  causal (with hysteresis)  ‘goldilocks’ – need tuning  ‘more is better’ – drive tuning  conditional... independent, settable ‘in principle’  possible interventions independent but unsettable  uncontrollables, contingent deterministically dependent  simple causality holds, predictable outcome of interventions and uncontrollable factors ( but need to know them and the causal relations ) emergent  causal and influence network operates, still dependent, but not computably so Overall Effectiveness articulate value success/failure measures Intermediate emergent properties observe, set targets, use to understand intervention opportunities too many interrelated influences, too many factors, some not measurable,...

can we make these choices so as to ensure success??? new org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc for 20xx + new stuff to be delivered by 20xx + what we retain or modify of what we have in staff, equipt, extant org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc Force Effectiveness measures of success and failure for the force intervention opportunities How it all fits together

new org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc for 20xx + new stuff to be delivered by 20xx + what we retain or modify of what we have in staff, equipt, extant org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc Emergent properties #$ ^&... elements of adaptivity - resilience - agility - responsiveness - flexibiility Force Effectiveness measures of success and failure for the force complex causal and influence networks contingencies intervention opportunities Observables can support adaptive approach How it all fits together complex causal and influence networks contingencies formulate hypotheses about what goes on in here i.e. how sets of emergent properties might arise in 20xx from choices of settable and possible uncontrollable factors formulate hypotheses about how the 20xx force and its emergent properties might interact with the context to produce outcomes

can we make these choices so as to ensure success??? new org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc for 20xx + new stuff to be delivered by 20xx + what we retain or modify of what we have in staff, equipt, extant org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc Emergent properties #$ ^&... elements of adaptivity - resilience - agility - responsiveness - flexibiility Force Effectiveness measures of success and failure for the force complex causal and influence networks contingencies intervention opportunities Observables can support adaptive approach How it all fits together complex causal and influence networks contingencies formulate hypotheses about what goes on in here i.e. how sets of emergent properties might arise in 20xx from choices of settable and possible uncontrollable factors formulate hypotheses about how the 20xx force and its emergent properties might interact with the context to produce outcomes Contain many interacting feedback and adaptive processes Contain many interacting feedback and adaptive processes

can we make these choices so as to ensure success??? new org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc for 20xx + new stuff to be delivered by 20xx + what we retain or modify of what we have in staff, equipt, extant org’n policy doctrine TTPs etc Emergent properties #$ ^&... elements of adaptivity - resilience - agility - responsiveness - flexibiility Force Effectiveness measures of success and failure for the force complex causal and influence networks contingencies intervention opportunities Observables can support adaptive approach How it all fits together complex causal and influence networks contingencies formulate hypotheses about what goes on in here i.e. how sets of emergent properties might arise in 20xx from choices of settable and possible uncontrollable factors formulate hypotheses about how the 20xx force and its emergent properties might interact with the context to produce outcomes set targets for these based on growing understanding of how they enable effectiveness Can use adaptive process to develop models of these networks

Linking operations and capability development – the CAS perspective close parallel between problem of operational design (creating effective interventions in complex operations), and problem of system design (creating effective interventions in our own complex systems). In both cases there are: –a large number of possible interventions, –complex interdependent multi-dimensional and multi-scale measures of success and failure, –our interventions play out through a complex causal and influence network (C&IN) of people, contextual elements, systems, processes and relationships, and interact with a large number of contingent and uncontrollable factors to produce outcomes in the measures of success and failure, and –this C&IN is opaque, ever-changing, and can never be grasped in its entirety. Therefore in both cases we have to take an adaptive approach to our interventions, i.e. –seek to learn about the dynamics of the C&IN, in order to build some confidence in developing a strategy for intervention, and then within the context of that strategy, –undertake an iterative process of generating, evolving and evaluating specific intervention options, selecting those for actual employment in the real system (or a representation of it), observing relevant feedback from their employment and using that feedback to review and evolve the understanding of the C&IN, the strategy and the specific interventions themselves.

Methodology - Conceptual and Analytical Framework C&IN explore conceptual model  develop conjectures, questions  refine collection plan Observe C&IN and develop conceptual model Collection plan 1 2 explore conceptual model  develop intervention strategy  identify critical uncertainties  develop probes to inform  refine collection plan actions Analytical framework Indicators Contingent factors Analytical framework Indicators Contingent factors MoS/F Proxies Develop specific intervention options to implement strategy  Implement them and  refine collection plan 3 Observe results of probes and further develop conceptual model and intervention strategy Analytical framework Indicators Contingent factors MoS/F Proxies MoP time

Methodology: Conceptual and Analytical Framework relates intervention options through the conceptual model to the proxies and ultimate MoS/F captures the rationale for the stratagem being pursued, exposes the conjectures and assumptions underpinning them, and explicitly supports their ongoing testing and refinement. captures the rationale for what is being measured (the collection plan) and what adaptive processes those measures are supporting, and therefore where the information has to go and what has to be done with it. supports the identification of problems and the creative generation of solution options. supports two different kinds of investigation: what stratagem to use, and how to execute it. Intervention options (settable parameters) Contingent factors Emergent properties Proxies Indicators Unintended consequences MoS/F other consequences Conceptual Framework Analytical framework MoS/F Proxies Indicators Contingent factors MoP observations Analytical Framework