Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 1 Climate and Related Decision Making in the Face of Irreducible Uncertainties M. Granger Morgan, PI Head, Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University tel:

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 2 Proposed Agenda 8:00Room open with coffee, etc. 8:15-8:30Introductions 8:30-8:40Welcome by Carnegie Mellon’s President - Jared Cohon 8:40-9:00Questions and Discussion 9:00-9:15Overview of Proposed Center - Granger Morgan 9:15-9:25Questions and Discussion

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 3 The Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP) EPP is a department in the Engineering College that addresses policy problems in which the technical issues really matter. Faculty: Total of 41. Include true 50:50 joint appointments with all five engineering departments as well as joint appointments with four different social science units in three other colleges (women: 3 tenured full Professors, 2 untenured). Undergraduate double major degrees with traditional departments (570 BS graduates to date). Graduate program is a research-oriented Ph.D. focused on problems in which the technical details really matter (current enrollment 48 (16 women), 119 Ph.D. graduates to date (30 women, 6 black).

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 4 Research Four major areas: 1.energy and environment. 2.risk analysis and communication. 3.telecommunication and information policy. 4.technology policy. In the context of these four areas, we also work on issues in technology and development (China and India) and on issues in dual-use technology, arms control, and defense policy. EPP currently has several large collaborative group efforts: Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change. The Electricity Industry Center. Green Design Initiative. Center for Energy and Environmental Systems. Center for the Study and Improvement of Regulation. Brownfields Center. IT and telecommunications policy. Risk analysis, ranking, communication.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 5 Our proposal… …is predicated on the belief that irreducible uncertainties in the problem preclude the adoption of the traditional decision analytic model: Our center will characterize the (often irreducible) uncertainties and develop strategies to deal with them.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 6 Research and Uncertainty The conventional decision-analytic model assumes that research reduces uncertainty:

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 7 Research and Uncertainty …(Cont.) or even grows… Sometimes this is what happens, but often, for variables we really care about, the reality is that uncertainty either remains unchanged… When the latter happens it is often because we find that the underlying physical model we had assumed is incomplete or wrong.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 8 An example: David Keith and I conducted a set of expert elicitations among 16 leading climate scientists in The figure summarizes their estimates of climate sensitivity for a 2xCO 2 climate change. We asked the experts to design a $10 9 /yr. 15yr. research program designed to reduce this and other key uncertainties. Later we asked the experts to tell us how they thought their estimates of climate sensitivity might change. Source: Morgan and Keith, 1995.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 9 For example… 12% chance uncertainty might grow by >25% …here is what Expert 9 told us:

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 10 Overall… …the experts gave us estimates that their uncertainty about climate sensitivity might grow by > 25% that ranged from a low of 8% to a high of 40%! Like all experienced scientists, they knew that research does not always reduce uncertainty. Source: Morgan and Keith, 1995.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 11 The work of our proposed Center… …will start by acknowledging that, while some key uncertainties related to climate change, its impacts, and the options available for mitigation, will be reduced with additional research and experimentation, many will remain large, and some may even grow over the coming decades. Our objective will be to: Develop better insight about what we are likely to be able to know, and not know, about the climate and energy systems over the course of the coming decades. Develop and demonstrate improved methods for decision making under this uncertainty, focusing on key problem domains both in climate impact and climate mitigation.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 12 Irreducible uncertainty…(Cont.) In Part 3, we will consider a second important set of irreducible uncertainties involving the future structure of the energy system in which path dependency will be critical. While future climate policy will be a key factor in shaping the future energy system, again, other social and economic factors will also play key roles. These uncertainties will both shape the problems faced by decision makers in Part 3, and also will be shaped by decisions made by decision makers in domains such as insurance and electric power, two of the groups of decision makers we'll be working with in Part 2.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 13 Why is our approach important? For the first time it will focus on what we are not likely to be able to know about future emissions (the energy system) and about climate change, as well as on what we do know and can expect to know. It will develop and demonstrate specific tools to support decision making in that environment. Since some key uncertainties simply cannot be reduced, this means the tools we develop will include a focus on robust and adaptive strategies.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 14 David Keith jokingly refers to this design as a sandwich But that description is actually too simple and too static…

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 15 The three parts interact

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 16 Methods development and useful results The Center will have a strong focus on developing and demonstrating new tools and methods. We'll give examples as we discuss the various parts of the research. But, we also plan to produce results that will be directly useful in the ongoing work of the climate research and policy communities, and to decision makers in several key domains. We see no conflict between these two objectives, since, in a complex problem domain such as this, progress on basic methods is often best made in the context of applied problem solving.

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 17 Examples of methods Here are some of the methods we'll be using and developing across several different parts of the Center's work:

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 18 Proposed Agenda 8:00Room open with coffee, etc. 8:15-8:30Introductions 8:30-8:40Welcome by Carnegie Mellon’s President - Jared Cohon 8:40-9:00Questions and Discussion 9:00-9:15Overview of Proposed Center - Granger Morgan 9:15-9:25Questions and Discussion

Proposed NSF Center on Climate Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University 19 Agenda - Part 1 9:25-9:50Irreducible uncertainties in climate science - Steve Schneider and Granger Morgan 9:50-10:15Questions and Discussion 10:15-10:40The thermohaline circulation Stefan Rahmstorf and Kirsten Zickfeld 10:40-11:00Questions and Discussion 11:00-11:25Break/Executive Session