Results presentation for the year ended 30 September 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

Results presentation for the year ended 30 September 2006

2 To bring prices down substantially for clients, ABIL set goals in mid Strategic context Over the next 3 – 5 years At the timeProgress 18 months later Double the advances book to R12 billion Advances book was R6 billion Advances book of R7,7 billion, targeting above R9 billion in 2007 Improve cost efficiency to 10% of advances Cost-to-advances 15,6% Cost-to-advances 14,7%, targeting 12,5% in 2007

3 Strategic context... and to develop a comprehensive client strategy. Our objectives in this regard are to –Get to understand our clients better Buying behaviour Product needs Causes of delinquency Dormancy patterns –Significantly expand the client base Successfully attracting new clients Retaining existing clients for longer Finding ways to rehabilitate delinquencies

4 Preparing to grow beyond the limitations of the exemption notice... FROM –Multiple operating units –Separate brands –Monoline, one-size-fits-all products –Reliance on preferred debit order mechanisms Over the past two years, ABIL has moved... TO –Integrated business –Single brand –Differentiated pricing –More product choice, ie long-term loans, short-term loans, standby loans, credit cards –Extended term and size –Collection platform neutrality

5 Reducing the cost of credit... Yield curve

6 Reducing the cost of credit... Yield curve

7 Reducing the cost of credit... Yield curve

8 A R500 instalment... Loan size and term per risk group

9 A R500 instalment... Loan size and term per risk group

10 A R500 instalment... Loan size and term per risk group

11 The operating environment... –Strong demand for credit –Positive response from clients to new pricing models –Risk conditions remain healthy – some warning signs –Increasing competition

12 Operational features –Headline earnings up 20% to R1 145 million –Sales up 26% to R5,5 billion –Total advances increase by 20% to R7,7 billion, lending books up by 24% –Yields reduce from 54,6% to 53,8% –R119 million (2005: R34 million) in IFRS 2-related charges for group incentives –Operating costs excluding IFRS 2 charges flat on 2005 –Bad debt-to-advances up from 7,9% to 8,5% –NPLs increase by R571 million on the back of higher sales and lower write-offs –Funding costs decrease from 12,2% to 9,9% due to refinancing of debt at lower levels

13... resulting in HEPS up 13% and dividends of 200 cents HEPS diluted by shares issued ito BEE programme

14 Medium term objectives continuing to improve...

15... and improved RoA and increased gearing translating into higher RoE... Lead and lag effect on RoA and RoE: –Lower prices generate higher volumes –Higher volumes translate into immediate gains in operating efficiency –Portfolio yields only reduce gradually as the proportion of new, lower-priced loans grow –RoA and RoE expected to fall over the next three years

16 Performance against short-term financial objectives... Objective Target for 2006 Actual achieved Sales growth18% – 22% 26% (disbursed) 14% (principal debt) Lending book growth18% – 22%24% Ordinary dividend cover1,25 – 1,5 times1,2 times Bad debt to interest income20%20,4% Cost to advances16%14,7%

17... and medium-term hurdles Objective Medium-term hurdles Achievement RoE30%55,3% RoA10%14,2% Economic profit growthCPI + 15%34,2% Capital adequacy optimised Minimise surplus capital R55 million surplus retained

18 Sales and advances

19 Robust sales growth... Original principal debt Disbursements Monthly sales history

20 Clear growth trend now visible... Advances

21 Underwriting margins and costs

22 Monthly administration fee building up... Non-interest income

23 Effect of insurance premium changes almost normalised... Drop in income from change to monthly fees compensated for by amortisation of credit life reserve

24 Price vs volume trade-off positive Revenue vs yield Saambou acquisition

25 Operating costs kept largely flat for five years... Operating costs

26... allowing volumes to improve cost efficiencies... Operating cost ratios

27... but volumes also increase risk... Bad debt ratios

28 Convergence creating a positive trade-off... Bad debt vs operating costs

29 Credit quality

30 NPLs higher from: Substantially higher sales volumes; Increase in ABIL’s risk appetite as indicated in vintages; and Significantly lower write-offs at 6,4% of advances (2005: 19,7%). NPLs beginning to rise in delayed reaction to sales volumes... Non-performing vs performing loans

31 Vintages still performing within defined parameters... Vintage graph – African Bank More than three missed instalments

32 NPLs and provision coverage... R million30 Sep 0630 Sep 05 Gross advances Performing loans15% Non-performing loans35% Total gross advances20% NPLs as a % of gross advances28,6%25,4% % change Total impairment provision coverage64,8%68,0% Impairment provisions and insurance reserves Impairment provisions46% Stangen credit life reserves(93%)10138 Total provisions and insurance reserves28% Impairment provision coverage of NPLs Impairment provisions64,4%59,6% Stangen credit life reserves0,5%8,4%

33 Increasing benefit from high bad debt recoveries...

34 Credit environment

35 Client debt levels are increasing... Client average debt burden – ABIL tracking population of

36... and elevated levels for higher risk groups... Client average debt burden by risk group

37 Affordability rules tightened further (Debt + expenses)/net income <= now 90% (from 100% in 2006) As a result, ABIL has been pulling back on extended customers... African Bank – monthly distribution of approved loans Increase in indebtedness Underwriting intervention

38 Growth sought within targeted risk parameters... High risk groups Low risk groups Vintage graph – African Bank More than three missed instalments

39 Outlook for 2007

40 Initiatives for –Continuous refining of segmentation of product term and pricing Segmentation expanded from 8 to 24 risk groups in October 2006 –Further testing price elasticity –Targeting an increased client base –Deepening our understanding of client dynamics –Expanding the product range –Finalising implementation of National Credit Act and NPS amendments Compliance with interest rate caps Debt mediation initiatives

41 Targets for –Sales growth target of 20% – 25% –Advances growth target of 18% – 22% –Decline in total yield target of 2% – 4% –Costs to advances target of < 12,5% –Bad debt to advances target of 8,5% – 9,5% –Ordinary dividend cover target of 1,0 – 1,5 times

Thank you