Risk Management CS 414, Software Engineering I Mark Ardis, Rose-Hulman Institute January 28, 2003

2 Outline u Identification u Estimation u Mitigation u Exercise

3 First Cartoon of the Day

4 Risk Item Checklists u Product Size u Business Impact u Customer-related u Process u Technology u Development Environment u Staff Size and Experience

5 Product Size u Estimated size of the product in LOC or function points? u Degree of confidence in estimated size estimate? u Number of users of the product? u Number of projected changes to the requirements for the product? Before delivery? after delivery?

6 Business Impact u Affect of this product on company revenue? u Number of customers who will use this product? u Number of other products/systems with which this product must be interoperable?

7 Customer-related u Does the customer have a solid idea of what is required? Has the customer spent the time to write it down? u Is the customer willing to participate in reviews? u Is the customer technically sophisticated in the product area?

8 Process u Are staff members "signed-up" to the software process as it is documented and willing to use it? u Is the software process used for other projects? u Are formal technical reviews conducted regularly?

9 Technology u Are specific methods used for software analysis? u Are configuration management software tools used to control and track change activity throughout the software process? u Are metrics collected for all software projects?

10 Development Environment u Are compilers or code generators available and appropriate for the product to be built? u Are all software tools integrated with one another? u Have members of the project team received training in each of the tools?

11 Staff Size and Experience u Do the people have the right combination of skills? u Are enough people available? u Are staff committed for entire duration of the project? u Will some project staff be working only part time on this project? u Have staff received necessary training?

12 Outline u Identification u Estimation u Mitigation u Exercise

13 Second Cartoon of the Day

14 Risk Estimation 1. List all possible risks 2. Assign a probability to each 3. Assign an impact to each 4. Sort by probability and impact

15 Sorted Risks Low Impact Moderate Impact High Impact Low Probability Moderate Probability High Probability Criticality 1 Criticality 2 Criticality 3 Criticality 4 Criticality 5 Criticality 6 Yellow Green Red

16 Outline u Identification u Estimation u Mitigation u Exercise

17 Risk Mitigation u Develop a strategy for each risk – May require some creativity – May use successful strategies from past u Apply each strategy u Monitor for changes

18 Outline u Identification u Estimation u Mitigation u Exercise

19 Problem u You and 7 others are going to fly 1500 miles in a pedal-powered airplane. u The plane can carry 3000 pounds of freight (including passengers) at 30 mph, when powered by 4 pedallers. u Each team member can pedal for 4 hours continuously. u If you lose power the plane crashes.

20 Exercise 1. Identify the risks 2. For each risk, estimate its probability and impact 3. Prioritize risks 4. Identify mitigation strategies for the most important half of the risks 5. Share your results with rest of class