Planning and Decision Making Police Administration: Structures, Processes, and Behavior (Eighth Edition) Charles R. Swanson, Leonard Territo, and Robert W. Taylor Planning and Decision Making Chapter 8

Planning The first step in the effective operation and management of a police department Management by crisis Crisis by management Proper planning is not always appreciated by police administrators (not “real” police work) Planning and good decision making is integral to effective police operations Competent planning is a sure sign of good police administration and the first step in accurate decision making

Planning accomplishes the following: Analysis of Problems Better Information Clarify Goals, Objectives, Procedures Better Allocation of Resources Cooperation & Coordination Performance of Programs Clear Sense of Direction Greater Public Support Commitment of Personnel Improve the analysis of problems Provide better information for decision making Help to clarify goals, objectives, and priorities Result in more effective allocation of resources Improve inter- and intradepartmental cooperation and coordination Improve the performance of programs Give the police department a clear sense of direction Provide the opportunity for greater public support Increase the commitment of personnel

Planning Approaches Many different methods and approaches to utilizing planning in the decision-making process

Synoptic Planning Traditional approach Based on “objective” or “rational” decision making Different approaches to selecting alternatives (step 7) Strategic Cost-effectiveness Must-wants 11 steps in synoptic planning (see figure)

Strategic Analysis Suitability studies Feasibility studies Analysis of retained courses of action Given a set of possible alternatives, the number of alternatives can be reduced in the following ways: Make suitability studies of all alternatives Determine the appropriateness of an action in accordance with general policies, rules, and laws Subject the retained and suitable alternatives to feasibility studies Determine whether an action is possible given current standards of operation, conditions, and restrictions Analyze the retained courses of action. Apply each of the following factors to each alternative to reveal critical limits and tradeoffs: Cost of each alternative Performance Effect of the alternative on the entire system Time involved in implementation and setup

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis The alternative chosen should maximize the ratio of benefit to cost Each alternative is weighed against a criterion Alternatives are ranked in order of preference Example: Costs of automating police records with the benefits to be derived The model can be as complex as a set of mathematical equations or as simple as a purely verbal description of the situation in which intuition alone is used to predict the outcomes of various alternatives.

Must-Wants Analysis Combines strengths of both strategic and cost-effectiveness analysis Uses a comparative chart to conduct analysis Useful when comparing similar items/alternatives Combines subjective and objective standards. What are some examples of situations where must-wants analysis might be used? (9mm semis v. .38 cal revolvers, Gateway v. Dell computers, etc)

Must-Wants Chart Chart for selecting a police patrol vehicle. “Musts” are at the top of the page: Conditions that are set by the police chief and absolutely have to be met in order for an alterative to continue to be a viable choice. “Wants” are listed below the musts, and corresponding data for each want are completed for each alternative that was not discarded in the previous step: Conditions, performances, characteristics, or features that are desirable but not absolutely necessary Weight: the subjective importance of the want as determined by the police chief: scale of 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest) Score: evaluation of the actual existence of wants by the chief: scale of 1-10 Weight and score for each want are multiplied and summed. The sum of each column is called the performance total of wants objectives.

Must-Wants Chart (cont.) The second part of the must-wants chart (above left) is called the “possible adverse consequences worksheet.” Statements concerning possible detriments or negative outcomes are listed for each alternative The probability and seriousness of each comment are subjectively scored (1 to 10) The final scores are summed and used in the last choice, the selection step The final step is must-wants analysis (above right) The alternative with the highest point value should be chosen

Summarizing Synoptic Planning The figure above is a visualization of initiating and implementing new information technology systems. Synoptic planning is the most widely used approach in police management

Administrative (Management) Operational (“Work Plans”) Types of Plans Administrative (Management) Procedural Operational (“Work Plans”) Administrative Formulation of the department’s mission statement, goals, and policies The structuring of functions, authority, and responsibilities The allocation of resources Personnel management Other concerns that are prevalent throughout the agency Procedural Included as part of a department’s written directive system Guidelines for the action to be taken under specific circumstances Detail how evidence is to be sent/transported, conditions under which male officers may search female suspects, how to approach traffic violators, etc. Operational Describe specific actions to be taken by line units Tactical Planning for emergencies of a specific nature at known locations (i.e. taking of hostages at a prison, jailbreak, etc.) Tactical

Effective Plans Must be sufficiently specific Benefits must offset the efforts of development and implementation Involvement in formulation must be widespread Should contain a degree of flexibility Must be coordinated in development and implementation with other units of government Must be coordinated in development and implementation within the police department The means for comparing the results planned v. produced must be specified Regardless of which strategy is used, agencies that plan outperform those that do not. Police administrators must have a planning process and recognize the characteristics of effective plans (above)

Models Decision Making Rational Incremental Heuristic Limited amount of research into different models. Rational: the traditional model of decision making based on logic or reason Incremental: Heuristic: a simplified, gut-level method of decision making that emphasizes internal personality attributes of the decision maker

Alternative Decision-Making Models Organizational Process Government Politics Operational Modeling Naturalistic Modeling Thin Slicing

Decision Making During Crisis Events Branch Davidians: Waco, TX Weaver Family Ruby Ridge, ID 1993 ATF raid to search for illegal weapons Led to a 51-day standoff Ended in a fire killing many children Combined ATF and Branch Davidian deaths 72+ Concerns about the collaboration between military and police Posse Comitatus Act 1992 U.S. Marshalls investigation of suspects and illegal weapon sales Confusion over death of suspects’ 14-year-old son and a U.S. Marshall Led to a standoff at the suspects’ fortified cabin FBI snipers killed 2 adults who were inside the cabin

Post-Event Analysis Incidents represent a series of individual decisions that depart from most mainstream models Started within the Rational Model Swayed by emotion or national attention? Each event followed its own course Similar to Incremental Model Decision makers make different decisions based on timing and ability to control events Vigilant decision maker Groupthink Defensive avoidance, do something The incidents represent a series of individual decisions that depart from most mainstream models Vigilant model: closely resembles the rational-comprehensive model Thoroughly canvasses a wide range of alternatives Surveys a full range of objectives to be fulfilled and the values implicated by choice Carefully weighs the costs and risks of negative consequences as well as positive consequences Intensively searches for new information relevant to further evaluation of the alternatives Correctly assimilates and takes account of new information or expert judgment to which he/she is exposed Re-examines positive and negative consequences Makes detailed provisions for implementing chosen course of action Groupthink: decision making by a group, characterized by a lack of both creativity and individual responsibility Defensive avoidance: Decision maker loses hope for a peaceful outcome Procrastination and delay Passing the buck/denying personal responsibility Bolstering and gaining superficial support from others

Future Crisis Events Policies should be institutionalized Agencies must adopt a philosophy that clearly articulates the importance of the safety and security of human life during such events Police agencies must consider withdrawal as a strategy Police executives must consider the role and use of SWAT teams Training for protracted conflicts should extend to executives During crises, outside/neutral referees should assist the situation Institutionalized: there must be concrete, written directives that reflect the overall philosophy of the department that must not be changed arbitrarily during a crisis event

Group Decision Making Assets Liabilities Greater total knowledge and information Greater number of approaches to a decision Participation in problem solving increases acceptance Better comprehension of the decision Social pressure Individual domination Conflicting secondary goals Winning the argument Group decision making has both advantages and disadvantages over individual decision making. Factors that can serve as liabilities OR assets: Disagreement Conflicting v. mutual interests Risk taking Time requirements Who changes Brainstorming: A group environment in which individuals can present any idea that seems to apply even remotely to the subject being considered with the understanding that criticism will be withheld unless it can somehow improve on the original idea

Ethics and Decision Making Recognize ethical issue Get the facts Decide who has an important stake in the outcome Carefully consider options from one or more perspectives Make decision based on which option is the right thing to do Test decision How do you define ethics? What are some daily events in which the police (administrators and/or patrol) must make ethical decisions? Scan your newspaper for articles about the police. Do they involve ethical decision making? Police administrators must identify ethical issues in decision making Develop strategies to confront ethical dilemmas

Common Errors in Decision Making Cognitive nearsightedness The assumption that the future will repeat the past Oversimplification Overreliance on one’s own experience Preconceived notions Unwillingness to experiment Reluctance to decide What are some situations in which police administrators might make one of the above errors?