Migration and the Irish Labour Market since EU Enlargement Brian McCormick Economist FAS

Overview Brief Literature Overview Immigration Trends Profile of EU10 workers Absorption & Segmentation

Summary of pre-enlargement literature  Lack of research (Ruhs, 2005)  Immigration reduced wages (Barrett et al, 2006)  In 2004, immigrants earning 18% less (Barrett & McCarthy, 2006)  Immigration main adjustment mechanism (Honohan & Leddin, 2006)

Gross Migration Flows

Nationality of non-Irish in employment, Source: CSO UK24.5%16.6% Rest of EU %11.2% EU %48.6% Rest of the World29.7%23.6%

To Twenty-five….and then? How far east?

To Twenty-five….and then? How far east?

Post-enlargement migration trend Peak?

Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement

Labour demand has been strong

…..but shortages have been bearable

Age Distribution

Educational Profile

Occupational Distribution

EU10 Earning Less

Occupational Distribution

Minimum Monthly Salary in the EU

Absorption & Segmentation Immigration has complemented Irish skills set Displacement not a major issue Doyle et al (2006), FAS (2006) Is segmentation an issue? (low-skill, low-pay) Risks increase in a slowdown Minimum wage risk for low-skill occupations (Fitzgerald et al (2007): Can & should EU10 migration be influenced?

Thank you!