SDO/AIA science plan: prioritization and implementation: Five Objectives in 10 steps [session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb I: C7: Connections to Geospace Chairs: Stephen Fuselier, Zoran Mikic Status: Draft, Version 1, 05/25/2006

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb Guidelines to group leads Assess the task definitions in appendix A (‘AIA Science Plan’) in the 2004 Concept Study Report (CSR). In particular: Science/task descriptions in Ch. A1.1 Summaries in Table A2 Identify required changes from, and additions to, the ‘AIA Science Plan’ Evaluate the status of that plan, and formulate changes, if needed. You may add as many pages to this document as you need, but: Add pages under the same headings: please, do not change the roman numerals in the page titles, please add ‘a, b, c, d, …’ Resources: AIA home: AIA CSR summary: CSR: Proposal:

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb Schedule 17 November 2005: draft sheets I, II to teams, requesting input for sheets III and IV 24 November 2005: completed sheets I-IV for review to teams, requesting input for sheets V-VI 8 December 2005: team input received for sheets V-VI 19 December 2005: draft of sheets VII-VIII to teams 9 January 2006: team comments received for sheets VII-VIII 6 February 2006: draft ‘Science plans’ on meeting website, with sheets IX-X filled out by team leads (or teams after telecons) February 2006: discussions during science team meeting discuss and complete pages IX-X. 17 February: completed ‘Science plans’ on line.

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb II: Science questions and tasks Primary scientific questions (AIA Objective 4): Dynamic coupling of corona and heliosphere Solar wind energetics Propagation of CMEs and related phenomena Vector field and velocity SDO/AIA science tasks: Task 1A: Develop a global background solar wind model Task 1B: Develop a coronal heating and wave momentum flux parameterization for a global coronal solar wind model Task 1C: Understand how to initiate CMEs using SDO data inputs Task 1D: Propagate CMEs to 1AU

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb III: Science context [Advances prior to and during SDO] Development and deployment of a background solar wind model solicited in the 2005 LWS TR&T Strategic Capabilities competition [SDO’s primary contribution] Improvements in characterizing and forecasting the structure of the background solar wind as a result of SDO’s vector magnetic field measurements, improved resolution, and AIA’s better spectral coverage of EUV emission

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb IV: Science investigation Having a global background solar wind model is essential To understand the connection between coronal source regions and in situ observations To understand how CMEs propagate Theoretical support: To develop a formulation on how to use AIA emission measurements to constrain empirical models of coronal heating and momentum wave flux To develop a CME initiation model that can use inputs from HMI and AIA (especially from far-side imaging?) To develop a CME propagation model

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb V: Implementation: General 1 [What do we need to make progress on the science questions in general?] Suggested TR&T Focused Topic: How to incorporate sequences of vector magnetograms into time-dependent global coronal models Suggested TR&T Focused Topic: To develop coronal heating and wave acceleration components for a global solar wind model Need to develop software to query, analyze, and visualize model results and to compare with observations (e.g., magnetic field line tracing, connection between S/C and Sun, rendering fields, …)

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb V: Implementation: General 2 The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is very useful for operational solar wind forecasting Further development of the WSA model would improve its effectiveness and usefulness

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb VI: Implementation: AIA+HMI [What do we need from and for SDO to make progress on our major science?] Need to calibrate magnetic fields from HMI in Gauss (especially saturation effects, weak fields, polar fields) Having a photospheric magnetic field forecast model (e.g., Schrijver and DeRosa) would be very useful Need robust and accurate ambiguity resolution for vector magnetic fields

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb VII: AIA+HMI data products [list data products; differentiate ‘critical’, ‘desirable’, ‘useful’] SDO data:  Line-of-sight magnetic field (critical)  Vector magnetic field (highly desirable)  AIA emission in EUV (highly desirable) Supporting data from other observatories:  In situ solar wind data for model verification (highly desirable)  Coronagraph data for CME initiation and propagation (highly desirable)

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb VIII: AIA+HMI data production Assessment of required resources/codes/etc: [pipeline software] [analysis software/studies] [supporting software/models] [computational requirements (run time estimates, system requirements, …)] [storage requirements: size, duration, …] [access: web, archive, logs, search methods, …]

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb IX: Business plan: Resources Need a continuously running background solar wind model [this is partially addressed by the 2005 LWS TR&T Strategic Capabilities competition] Need a dedicated operator to screen data, feed in data, deal with data gaps, resolve anomalies, check running of model, check output, assess performance, compare with data (“postcasting”)

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb IX: Business plan: Resources (continued) Need a dedicated massively parallel computer system (~256 CPUs) to run the background solar wind model Need storage for archived model results

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb X: Business plan: Implementation [Define key milestones, test procedures, and target dates, …] … [Communication: define or list meetings, topical sessions, etc., where progress can be presented, discussed, evaluated, …] …

[session no.] HMI/AIA science teams meeting; Monterey; Feb Additional Considerations One CME can “pre-condition” the corona for the propagation of a following CME This is very important in assessing the geo- effectiveness of CMEs Commercial customers (e.g., airlines) need to know when a geo-magnetic event is expected to start, and also when it is going to end Models can provide “Situational Awareness”: knowing what is out there in the solar wind, and how it will affect us