1. UCB MURI Team Introduction An overview of ongoing work to understand a well observed, eruptive active region, along with closely related studies…..

2. Institutions of Solar Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative Team UC Berkeley Big Bear Solar Observatory (NJIT) Drexel University Montana State University Stanford University UC San Diego University of Colorado University of Hawaii University of New Hampshire

3. Motivation Magnetic field evolution on the Sun is the engine that drives magnetic eruptions. The mechanisms that trigger and drive these eruptions are the least understood aspects of space weather. A better physical understanding of how magnetic eruptions occur on the Sun will surely lead to more accurate and longer range forecasts.

4. Goal Develop a state-of-the-art, observationally tested 3-D numerical modeling system for predicting magnetic eruptions on the Sun and the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).

5. Approach Perform in-depth, coordinated space and ground based observations of magnetic eruptions and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) propagation Understand the physics of how magnetic eruptions are triggered and powered Develop numerical models for the initiation and propagation of CMEs and the acceleration of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Couple together the observationally tested models of the Sun and Heliosphere

6. Overview of Solar MURI 1. Active Region Emergence : Fisher & Abbett (UCB), Jing Li, & Mickey (UH), Canfield & Regnier (MSU), Liu (Stanford), Moon, Wang & Goode (BBSO) 2.Effects of Large Scale Field and Solar Cycle Evolution: Hoeksema, Scherrer, & Zhao (Stanford), Li, Ledvina & Luhmann (UCB), Martens (MSU), Goode, Wang & Moon (BBSO) 3.Inner Corona: Forbes (UNH), MacNeice (Drexel), Abbett, Ledvina, Li, Luhmann, Lundquist & Fisher (UCB), Kuhn & H. Lin (UH), Canfield & Longcope (MSU), Hoeksema, Scherrer & Zhao (Stanford) 4.Outer Corona, Solar Wind, SEPs: Odstrcil (CU), Jackson, Dunn & Hick (UCSD), MacNeice (Drexel), Luhmann & R. Lin (UCB), Lee (UNH) 5.Geoeffects: Luhmann & R. Lin (UCB), Odstrcil (CU), Hoeksema & Zhao (Stanford)

7. Current team focus: Numerical models of a real, eruptive active region: AR 8210 May 1, 1998 A real forecast of solar weather requires that models incorporate time dependent magnetic data There is no existing capability to do this; we must develop it We have identified a series of new problems which must be solved, and are developing new algorithms to tackle them…

8. How do we connect real, time dependent magnetic data measured on the Sun to MHD models of the solar corona? We must first understand the physics connecting flux evolution below the photosphere to that above the photosphere. Bill Abbett will describe our work in this research area.

9. How do we determine initial conditions for an MHD simulation in the solar corona? Must first reduce convert measurements of linear and circular polarization to magnetic field vectors measured along the surface of the Sun Must use these data to construct nonlinear force- free fields or magnetohydrostatic equilibria above the photosphere and into the corona. Stephane Regnier will describe this part of the project.

10. The MHD equations require a knowledge of the 3-d velocity field at the lower boundary, but this information is not generally available. How do we solve this problem? Line of sight velocity information could be measured from Stokes I profile data Local Correlation Tracking (LCT) can in principle be used to measure horizontal flow fields Dana Longcope has developed a new method for determining both v  and v z from the magnetic induction equation Brian Welsch will describe our team efforts in this area.

11. How do we connect coronal evolution in an active region to the dynamics of the large scale corona and heliosphere? Coronal model must couple the active region scale to global scales Coronal model must couple to heliospheric models Steve Ledvina will describe our efforts in this area.

12. Other techniques for studying large scale coronal context and heliospheric evolution… The use of source-surface models to describe how active regions affect the global corona will be described by Janet Luhman… and Yan Li will describe her survey on ICME properties.