CLIMATE CHANGE A Christian Challenge & Opportunity A presentation by Sir John Houghton to the National Association of Evangelicals Washington DC March 2005

Stewardship of the Earth “We have a full repairing lease on the Earth. With the work of the IPCC, we can say we have the surveyor’s report; and it shows … the repair work needs to start without delay.” Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at the opening of the Hadley Centre 1990

What is Global Warming?

The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation Long-wave radiation

Past and future CO 2 atmospheric concentrations

The Impacts of Global Warming

Sea-level transgression scenarios for Bangladesh Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

Exceptional European Heat Wave: Summer 2003 Deviation from mean Based on ECMWF and ERA-40 Color: temperature anomaly Contours: normalized by standard deviation (Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, ) ºC Temperature Anomaly ºC, June-August 2003

Irrigated cropland appears red in this satellite photograph, made over the Nile where it flows through the Sudan. In the past 70 years, a variety of irrigation projects have increased the agricultural productivity of this dry region. More than half of the increase in the world’s agricultural productivity during the past few decades has come from irrigation. From PR Crosson and NJ Rosenberg, 1989

Major floods in 1990s 1991, , China, average disaster cost , 4% of GDP Mississipi & Missouri, flooding area equal to one of great lakes Europe, 162,000 evacuated and > 5bn $ loss Hurricane Mitch, 9000 deaths, economic loss in Honduras &Nicaragua 70% & 45% of GDP Venezuela, led to landslide, 30,000 deaths two in Mozambique, >1/2 million homeless

Global Warming & Climate Change The earth is warming Sea level will rise More floods and more droughts Poor nations worst affected Many environmental refugees

IPCC Synthesis Report

What can we do about Global Warming?

FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE signed at Earth Summit at Rio by 160 nations in 1992 The FCCC OBJECTIVE is to achieve,. … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel (in billions of tonnes Carbon) Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel use, 1850 to 1990, and for scenarios to 2100, in GtC. For each scenario, the range shows the difference between gross and net emissions. From IIASA/WEC Global Energy Perspectives green curve would lead to CO 2 stabilisation at ~450 ppm

Carbon dioxide emissions in 2000, per capita versus population (after M Grubb 2003).

COST OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Estimated Cost to UK economy of 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 On assumption of average economic growth at historic annual rate of 2.25%, estimated loss of 0.02% from the growth rate equivalent to loss of 6 months ’ GDP growth over 50 yrs UK govt Policy Innovation Unit Energy Review 2002 para 7.115

A view from industry “ A sober strategy would ensure any increase in the world ’ s temperature is limited to 2-3deg C ….. in the long run. Focused on that goal, …..policy should aim to stabilize CO2 concentrations in the range ppm over the next century. ” » » Lord John Browne, CEO, BP, July 2004

What Action? Stop Deforestation; more Aforestation More efficient energy generation & use Move to non-fossil fuel sources of energy

Reasons for optimism - Commitment of scientific community - Necessary technology available - God’s commitment to his creation

Climate Change linked with other Global Sustainability Issues Population Water - 1 bn - no clean water Energy -2 bn - no commercial energy Consumption Trade Poverty and growing rich/poor divide

The Christian Steward For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required Luke 12 v 48

What Can I Do? choose fuel efficient vehicles & appliances ensure your home is energy efficient travel sensibly support renewable energy sources support leaders in government or industry in advocacy of the necessary solutions.

“ Noone made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do so little ” Edmund Burke

Celtic cross Celtic Cross -the cross of Jesus surrounded by the world