Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little 1, R.C. Francis 1, M.G. Dalton.

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Presentation transcript:

Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little 1, R.C. Francis 1, M.G. Dalton 2 and J.C. Field 3 1 School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2 AFSC, NMFS, NOAA, Seattle, WA 3 Santa Cruz Laboratory, NMFS, NOAA, Santa Cruz, CA

Wash. Oregon California Northern California Current Ecosystem (NCCE)

82.4 BIOMASS REVENUE Baseline: year 2000

how do ecology and economy respond to… 1.different CLIMATE 2.additional FISHING effort 3.CLIMATE & FISHING *all scenarios for year 2000 and year 1960 systems* SCENARIOS

SCENARIO 1: Climate

…to 2100 Average SCENARIO 1: Climate

…to 2100 Average SCENARIO 1: Climate

…to 2100 Average SCENARIO 1: Climate

BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

Compared to year 1960 system? SCENARIO 1: Climate

BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

2000 SYSTEM 1960 SYSTEM SCENARIO 1: Climate

2000 SYSTEM 1960 SYSTEM SCENARIO 1: Climate

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

Are we measuring RESILIENCE? from Walker et al. 04 SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

REVENUE CLIMATE CLIMATE

SUMMARY thanks to: WA Sea Grant, IPDES, SAFS

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