1. Climate Scenario Investigations

2. “…as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know
“…as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know…it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.”   Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld DoD News Briefing, February 12, 2002

3. Scenario Planning Guidance
Addressing the “unknown unknowns”

4. CSI Charge Provide further framing and guidance for
Ecosystem Work Group to compile proposed scenarios for Council consideration
Provide guidance and framework for EWG development of
Detailed description of scenario planning exercise activities, and
Process and timeline for completion

5. Definitions

6. Scenario Oxford English Dictionary:
A postulated sequence or development of events .
Essentially - Plausible, consistent story about the future
Consider how we would operate under novel conditions
Scenarios are not forecasts or predictions
Opportunity to identify potential solutions

7. Scenario – CSI Proposed Definition
Plausible alternative futures
each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions.
Provide a starting point for examining questions about an uncertain future, and
Can help the Council consider alternative future management actions in concrete terms

8. Scenario Planning Focus
How the California Current Ecosystem might change
How West Coast fisheries and communities might respond
Help identify uncertainties, challenges, or roadblocks
Different potential “realities”
Examine specific potential events
Find paths forward should they become reality

9. Timeline and Products

10. Proposed Timeline
Scenario Topics and Process Scoping – Nov – Mar. 2019
Meetings/webinars with EWG, MTs, and HC
Scoping Webinar with MTs, ABs, public
Council Selection – Mar. 2019
Consideration of EWG report
Council selects 2-3 Topics and approves process
Scenario Planning – Mar to Mar. 2020
Scenario Planning - approved process
EWG Meetings
Regular updates to Council on progress
Report results and recommendation in March 2020

11. Scenario Topics and Process Scoping
Potential Scenario Planning Topics
Rationale for inclusion
Scenario Planning Process recommendations
Proposed timeline
Proposed meetings/workshops
Funding opportunities and collaborative efforts
Expert facilitation needs
Required participants, and
Other recommendations
Potential Scenario Planning Process Partners

12. Scenario Topic Considerations

13. Considerations Timeframe - 15-20 year window
Next 5 years too short - interannual variability
Beyond 30 years too long - guessing future actions and responses
FMP Specifics – how are they different?
Fishing Industry Scale – focus on fishery sectors
Council doesn’t manage communities
Individual choice is difficult to gauge
Resources Available – capitalize on other efforts
Funding, process, or information resources

14. Scenario Topic Selection
Management tool availability
Existing FMP management tools
Vulnerability and risk - relative to:
Individual species
Fishing communities
Vulnerability factors common to ALL scenarios:
Stock changes
Human behavior changes (in response to species changes)
Level of certainty of potential outcomes

15. Final Product – March 2020

16. Scenario Planning Report
Inform future Council action
Provide options for tools (existing or new)
Not be a call for immediate action
Options for actions if scenarios play out
Potential proactive management to prevent unwanted outcomes
 Not be comprehensive management plans
Brief descriptions scenarios, outcomes, and potential responses

17. Example Products Climate Change Impacts, Great Barrier Reef,
Evans, et al, 2013
Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop Summary
NOAA – Atlantic Salmon Scenario Planning Pilot

18. Climate Scenario Investigations
Thank You
Climate Scenario Investigations