QUEST, Exeter 27-28 October 2005 Stephen Plummer Olivier Arino (ESA), Franck Ranera and Muriel Simon (SERCO) Kevin Tansey (Univ. Leicester),

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Presentation transcript:

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Stephen Plummer Olivier Arino (ESA), Franck Ranera and Muriel Simon (SERCO) Kevin Tansey (Univ. Leicester), Luigi Boschetti (UMD), H. Eva (JRC) and Freddy Fierens (VITO Consortium) THE GLOBCARBON INITIATIVE: Populating the Earth with Burned Area

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 General User Needs For Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models:  There is a particular need for information on vegetation amount (ideally biomass or leaf area index), area burned, and vegetation temporal variability.  These should be global, in a consistent format, and all data products should be available from one place.  Consistency is more important than outright accuracy (within limits).  The products should be multi-annual with 5 years being the minimum but incorporating both average and extreme conditions e.g. El Ninõ.  Products should come with spatial heterogeneity information ideally at the highest available resolution.  The spatial resolution requirements are 0.5°, 0.25° and 10km.  The temporal resolution initially on a time step of 1 month but better higher, possibly bi-weekly.

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 develop a service quasi-independent of the original Earth Observation source. focus on a system to estimate:  Burned area  f APAR and LAI  Vegetation growth cycle cover six complete years: 1998 to 2003 (now up to 2007) cover VEGETATION, ATSR-2, ENVISAT (AATSR, MERIS) be applicable to existing archives and future satellite systems be available at resolutions of ¼, ½ degree and 10km with statistics build on the existing research experience Objectives

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 GLOBCARBON uses the experience of these and some of the algorithms to produce a single burned area product – multi-annually. uses revised versions of algorithms it has associated with it confidence information (detection confidence from individual algorithms plus collocation with available active fire products). Burned Area - History GBA-2000 Globscar Year 2000 – two independent demonstrators of global burned area: GLOBSCAR and GBA-2000

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Original = 6 regional algorithms GLOBCARBON = 1 global and 2 regional algorithms it has associated with it confidence information (detection confidence from individual algorithms) Burned Area - Approach GBA-2000Globscar Results are merged to one product Collocation with available active fire products improves confidence Original = 2 global algorithms and burn when both agree. GLOBCARBON = each algorithm and sub-parts given a probability. The resulting probability determines occurrence of a pixel as burned (confidence information)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results – 1 km (Madagascar) July % 75-87%88-100% Confidence Rating Index (CRI)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results – 1 km (Madagascar) July 1998 GLOBSCAR onlyGBA onlyBoth algorithms Algorithm Detection (GLOBSCAR, GBA, Both)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results – 1 km (Italy) July % 75-87%88-100% Confidence Rating Index (CRI)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results – 1 km (Italy) July 1998 GLOBSCAR onlyGBA onlyBoth algorithms Algorithm Detection (GLOBSCAR, GBA, Both)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results – 1 km (Angola) July % 75-87%88-100% Confidence Rating Index (CRI)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results – 1 km (Angola) July 1998 GLOBSCAR onlyGBA only Both algorithms Algorithm Detection (GLOBSCAR, GBA, Both)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 MODIS Comparison – 1 km July 2000 MODIS GLOBCARBON

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 MODIS Comparison – 1 km Sept 2000 MODIS GLOBCARBON

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results –10 km (Mongolia) Percentage of pixels with CRI > 80 in a 10*10km box 2000 May

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Results –10 km (Australia)

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 NW Australia – 10km May 99 May overlain with May Vectors

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 NW Australia 10km – May 99 May overlain with June Vectors

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 the process of assessing by independent means the quality of the data products derived from the system outputs Inter-comparison – not senso stricto validation because comparison with similar products which may or may not be reliable. However, it remains the only achievable method for burned area. Sampling – Ideal situation is a statistical sample in all land covers but major problems induced by data availability and cost CEOS WGCV Definition Validation - Definition

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Validation - Criteria  Representativeness: sample all fire types (stand replacing, ground etc)  Biome type: sample the variability of biomes and conditions encountered over the Earth’s surface.  Number of sites: an adequate sampling of each of the qualifying land cover classes.  Season: cover range of vegetation conditions exhibited over the course of a growing season.

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Validation - Approach  Theory:  Algorithm: Classification of the known (in 2000) performance of GLOBSCAR/GBA-2000  Statistical: sampling of all classes (strata) to determine which locations to focus on  Data Needed: Each site characterised by two Landsat ETM images 1 month apart  Problems:  Cost: 2 scenes of Landsat ETM for all samples prohibitive  Data Availability: Often two scenes not even available (1 year or less apart)  Solution: Use what we can afford + seek national/continental databases

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Validation - Results South Sudan, Stratum 1, R 2 = 0.81Montana, Stratum 1, R 2 = 0.80

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Validation - Results Sudan South, Stratum 1, R 2 = 0.81Montana, Stratum 1, R 2 = 0.80 July Aug Sept Mar Dec Apr

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 LAI Results – 10 km water no data > June 1999

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Phenology Results – 10km water no value Leaf On 1998

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 To feed in to the Global Carbon Project Earth observation must deliver long time series, consistent estimates of global vegetation behaviour complete with accuracy/quality figures. GLOBCARBON will deliver 10 complete years (1998 to 2007) of global vegetation products to the DGVM and atmospheric chemistry modelling community at resolutions of ¼, ½ degree and 10 km. Timeline: GLOBCARBON has now entered the operational production phase. Validation and inter-comparison are key elements (and being conducted by the industrial contractor). Validation and inter-comparison An ongoing process so validation data still useful – MODIS, Landsat ETM Product Release ( ): January 2006 Conclusions

QUEST, Exeter October 2005 Acknowledgements Many thanks to all the people who have contributed data for the validation of GLOBCARBON Burned Area especially: –Louis Giglio for TRMM hotspot information –Robert Fraser and colleagues (FireM3 and validation data) –Tom Bobbe for US burn area vectors –Chris Schmullius/Charles George for Siberia validation –Joao Silva for Africa validation data –DOLA for burned area validation in Australia