Advanced Modeling System for Forecasting Regional Development, Travel Behavior, and the Spatial Pattern of Emissions Brian J. Morton Elizabeth Shay Eun Joo Cho July 13, 2005

2 UNC-CH/NCSU Project Team Land use and travel behavior modeling –UNC-CH –NCSU Emissions estimation –NCSU Air quality modeling –UNC-CH

3 EPA STAR Grant Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions EPA’s interests –Ground level ozone and fine particulate matter –How locations of emissions might change in response to future land development patterns –Current tools used to estimate emissions do not capture long-term changes in regional development patterns –Long time frame: 50 years

4 Key Research Questions How might regional development patterns, over 50 years, influence quantity and spatial pattern of emissions from transportation in Charlotte? Could realistic development patterns reduce transportation emissions by 10-20% or more? How would different development patterns affect quality of life? –Ozone and of fine particulate matter –Human exposure –Other indicators

5 Reasons for Selecting Charlotte Growing metro area in North Carolina Data-rich site Recent travel survey Designated 8-hour ozone nonattainment area ReVA SEQL Future transit metropolis? Charlotte transportation system in 1940 Charlotte in 2050?

6 Overview of Research Design Development drivers –Market and non-market incentives and constraints on development characteristics and location Land use model –Markets for land and for floor space Travel behavior model –Motorized and nonmotorized modes Vehicle emissions model –Engine load approach (same as EPA’s MOVES) Integrated models— TRANUS

7 TRANUS

8 Activities-Land Use System Productive sectors Household sectors Floorspace Land Commodity flows Production costs Traveler flows Equilibrium prices of land and floorspace Consumption of land and floorspace Source: Modelistica, 2004

9 Transportation Model Trip generation Trip distribution Mode split Trips assignment Elastic trip generation Elastic mode split Probabilistic assignment Urban form -Mix of uses -Density -Infrastructure -Parking pricing -Regional access Vehicle ownership model

10 TAZ Transect for Describing Neighborhoods TAZ Transect classifies neighborhoods based on: –Land use characteristics (density and use) –Transportation (street design and modes) TAZ Transect provides a palette of neighborhoods for scenario assessment

11 Two Types of Neighborhood

12 Emissions Estimation

13 Scenario Development: Two Approaches Paint the landscape with new land uses and/or changes to the transportation system Change market and non-market incentives and constraints on development, with or without transportation system changes

14 Summary of Modeling Approach Classify zones according to transect TAZ Transect Identify future scenarios based on typology Translate scenarios into land market (change constraints, impose new tastes, etc.) & transportation system Multimodal travel forecasts sensitive to typology & exogenous factors Estimate emissions from on-road mobile sources Run air quality model Study area: Charlotte Exogenous Factors: Population aging IPCC’s parameters Vehicle fleet mix Vehicle technology Run selected land use/transport forecasting model Future locations of employment centers & residences Estimate exposures

15 Expected Results and Benefits State-of-the-art simulation model for investigating effects of development on spatial pattern and quantity of emissions from mobile sources Scenario assessments for Charlotte –What proportion of area would have to be developed in a compact manner to reduce emissions by 10% or 15%? –Is a 20% emission reduction feasible with any reasonable forecast of market penetration of smart growth?

16 Analytical Innovations TAZ Transect –Quantitative typology of land-use patterns at the neighborhood level (transportation analysis zone) –Tool for describing development scenarios Land use model –Based on economic theory of how development occurs –TRANUS (applied in Europe and South America)

17 Additional Analytical Innovations Travel behavior model –Travel options include bicycle and walking –Trip generation, destination choice, and modal choice are sensitive to attributes of built environment such as pedestrian friendliness Vehicle emissions model –Detailed emissions profile for transit vehicles –Next generation emission factor model

18 Timeline of Major Analytical Tasks 2005 –Obtain data –Construct land use and transportation models 2006 –Construct baseline TAZ Transect –Refine land use and transportation models –Develop and analyze development scenarios 2007 –Additional scenario analysis –Forecast air quality with Models3/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system

19 Working Together… Already working together on data – thank you, thank you, thank you! Additional ways of working together –Land use modeling –Transportation modeling –Developing scenarios –Evaluating scenarios –Others?

20 Contact Person and Web Site Brian J. Morton, Ph.D., Project Manager (919) Center for Urban and Regional Studies University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill