27/06/

The world is turbulent Financial crisis Systemic forces No return to Business As Usual How scenarios help organisations Forecasts and scenarios Communicating scenarios Scenarios as part of renewal Three case studies Public engagement Visioning Strategy 27/06/

27/06/ Financial crisis Debt Bank bailouts Ongoing effects

Commerce ‘09 Consumers (money of the day: US GDP grew by 8 times in the period) © Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley /06/

Expenditure $US bn 2008 S&L crisis Obama stimulus plan 2008 tranche of the bank bailout Marshall plan Louisiana purchase NASA, less moon shot Moon shot Korean war The New Deal Iraq war Viet Nam ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley /06/

Banking crisis remain chronic, as does state intervention The economic situation is completely predicated on the banking crisis Economic situation develops independently of the banking crisis Banking crisis is settled relatively quickly Japan India UK US Middle income industrialising ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 China Euro zone 27/06/ Prolonged depression, growing statist environment Slow grind to expunge debt; some deliberate use of monetary inflation Business grows as before Slow return to health; US consumer stage centre

27/06/ Systemic forces Population Demographics Education Values Energy Environment Inter- connectedness

North America Europe Latin America Asia Africa World population (billions) Total world population Secondary education Graduate-level education /06/2015 ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley

Africa S America Asia Oceania N America Europe Ratio of people under 16 years to people over 45 Time 27/06/2015 ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley

Purity Authority Affiliation Fairness Harm Relevance to a moral decision Decreasing traditionalism  27/06/2015 ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley

27/06/ Gigajoules per capita GDP per capita USA Europe, Japan, Korea China, India

The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already 0 Carbon dioxide Species extinction rate Nitrogen cycle Phosphorus cycle Stratospheric ozone depletion Ocean acidification Freshwater use Change in land use Sustainable limit ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley /06/

27/06/ Perceived impact US BN $ Perceived likelihood in next 10 years

Rich nations 15% world population 90% world wealth Industrialising nations 25% world population 9% world wealth Poor nations 60% world population < 1% world wealth 27/06/ ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow

27/06/ ©2009 Ringland

27/06/ Scenarios Forecasts Scenario planning How it works Cycle of renewal

1991 forecast A trend is a trend until it bends 27/06/

Trends Range of other uncertainties Uncertain timing Single point forecast Today 27/06/ ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010

Scenario planning attempts to describe what is possible. The result of a scenario analysis is a group of distinct futures, all of which are plausible. They are mental models. Future Present B C D A Number of Possible Future Worlds 27/06/

Ingvar, a neurobiologist, found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleep Mental models of the world provide a context for these explorations “memories of the future” act as a filter to signals. Scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for the brain to explore increases the range of “what we have experienced” and “what is relevant to our future” increases the ability of the brain to perceive.. Source: D. Ingvar, “Memory of the Future”, Human Neurobiology, 4(3), p , /06/

Scenarios are mental models - artifacts Communication method depends on audience Engineers & scientists – comparator tables Managers – brief “Public” – visualisation & stories All audiences helped by early indicators Newspaper headlines now if this scenario is developing Plus All audiences need discussion time to internalise, eg “What are the implications for me/the organisation? “ “How would I/the organisation manage in this scenario?” 27/06/

Road maps © 2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow 27/06/ Audit of capability Internal scanning Organisational & leadership development Horizon scanning Scenarios Asset allocation Policy and strategy Review Narrative Innovation

27/06/ Public engagement Seattle Visioning Natural England Strategy Scotland

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White “flight to the suburbs” leaving Seattle Seattle public schools had problems Enrolment dropped Voters refused to support education bonds Schools decayed & staff leaving Teachers Union with GBN set up a project team from a diverse set of stakeholders Old/young Male/female White/black Employers/students/teachers Asked questions for the future of the schools Will changes to the social fabric be turbulent or healthy? Will the rate of change be slow/resistant or rapid/embracing? 27/06/

Turbulent Healthy Social fabric Rapid Slow/resistant Rate of change RioTweaking the Edges Mosaic The Change 27/06/

The City agreed with the team after wide consultation and town meetings etc that The Change was the desirable scenario Schools as community centres Use of ICT Pre-school & adult education Students rather than schools funded Business took an active role Unemployed adults as classroom assistants On the basis of The Change scenario as a vision, Seattle City passed two school bonds to get funding Revision of governance of schools & teachers seniority rules Use of ex-military as Headmasters Seattle became a beacon for educationalists across the US /06/2015

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Project took from September 2008 to September 2009 Natural England & stakeholders formed team with SAMI Feedback to NE Board and Senior Management Team 3 workshops to develop scenarios 50 people at each Natural England pro-actively involved other agencies Test with 6 groups of stakeholders & Board experts on uplands, woodlands, marine, ---- Engage with “not the usual suspects” in the public School children, inner city, small business, prosperous rural Create Vision for the English natural environment 27/06/

Head in the Sand Head in the Sand So Far, So Good So Far, So Good Continuing as we are: present trends extended Focus on ICT, ignore disruptive effects of social networking Focus on consumption, ignore limits Policy emphases and dangers Possible future outcomes Backlash Focus on productivity, ignore long-range consequences. Environmental Guardians Environmental Guardians Digital people connect to web of life & leave national power brokers powerless. Protect and Be Damned Protect and Be Damned Environmental and financial crises force protectionist worldview. Global competition forces innovations for sustainable efficiency. 27/06/

Findings “the most important thing we have done” (from a Board member) include: Importance of marine environment Young people assume technology will fix the environment Outside London found great engagement with “Protect and be Damned” Balance food needs vs “the environment” The Scenario Report and related documents are on ditto NECR030 Ditto NECR031 27/06/

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Scenarios for Scotland (S4S) project Set models for new devolved administration Analogies with ? Norway? Finland? Use of S4S at Napier University Set strategy for new team Five year plan Five years later Use of SAMI global drivers to plan for next 5 years 27/06/

Purpose: set agenda for new devolved government – what sort of country should Scotland aspire to be? Timing as new Scottish Parliament set up 10 sponsors, from private sector & Government, managed by SAMI plus St Andrews and Strathclyde Universities, 1,000 interviews, 50 + focus groups Launched on St Andrews Day 1999 High Road scenario, “can do” Low Road scenario, “government’s fault” Used by Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Executive & politicians to formulate policy and strategy eg focus on entrepreneurs, capacity building and new enterprises eg attracting students and keeping graduates in Scotland 27/06/

Low Road -“government’s fault” – Business as Usual Economy and Quality of Life High Road scenario - “can do” possible upward triggers between scenarios GraduateEntrepreneursNatural educationadvantages 27/06/

New University Principal and new Senior Management Team (SMT) at Napier University in 2003 Needed to create a common language and strategic plan Used the Scenarios for Scotland to frame a discussion What scenario for Scotland? Did the University need to share the Scotland scenario? Two day workshop discussion led to 37 actions and new Strategic Plan To change from technical college with mostly local, undergraduate engineering students Target: Use positives of Edinburgh brand to become global Use positives of Edinburgh Festival to connect with Arts Develop Masters courses with global focus 27/06/

University Global Local Scotland Low Road High Road X ? ? ? Graduate education New courses, new students 27/06/

Phone call to SAMI in 2008 We’ve done that, met our targets Will you help us with a plan for the next five years? Used the SAMI five global drivers of change Globalisation Climate change Raw materials Technology People Workshop discussion allowed SMT to calibrate what was achievable, desirable, and to set targets for the next five years Changed name to Edinburgh Napier University. og 27/06/

The world is turbulent Financial crisis Systemic forces No return to Business As Usual How scenarios help organisations Forecasts and scenarios Communicating scenarios Scenarios as part of renewal Three case studies Public engagement Visioning Strategy 27/06/

27/06/ Some of this is covered in the book “Beyond Crisis” – there is a sample on the table. If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please give me your business card! And if this has whetted your appetite to learn more there are flyers with details of Futures Coaching courses that SAMI runs for the Government Office for Science, also on the table.