15 March 04 GC2 Systems Thinking Workshop. What is a System? “An interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized around some purpose” -Dana.

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15 March 04 GC2 Systems Thinking Workshop

What is a System? “An interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized around some purpose” -Dana Meadows lsb.syr.edu/projects/cyberzoo/images/collaredpeccaryfw.gif clips.com/crocodile/ physics/m1_6.ht

What is Systems Thinking "A discipline for seeing wholes...a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns rather than static snapshots" -Peter Senge 1.A perspective on reality 2.A set of tools 3.A new vocabulary

A perspective on reality… Mechanistic Thinking Parts Objects Events Isolation Specificity Simplicity Systemic Thinking Wholes Relationships Structures Interdependence Generality Complexity Events Patterns Systemic Structures

A set of tools… Source:

Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O OO O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O O Balancing loop – pushes level up or down to reach a goal (i.e., carrying capacity). TIME # PEOPLE Reinforcing loop – reinforces change with even more change; leads to exponential growth or decline # PEOPLE TIME S=Respond in same direction; O=Opposite direction

Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O R R R B (1) (2) (3) (4)

The Coming Anarchy 1.Team up in pairs and find one causal loop of 4 or more elements Attribute S’s and O’s to the links and record reasoning on the worksheet 2.Get together with another pair and explain loops to each other; decide on one loop and draw it on paper 3.Each group of 4 will present loop to class 4.Discussion: Is Kaplan’s vision the state of human kind? Where can we intervene?