1. Nanette Chadwick Faculty Sustainability Workshop May 12, 2015 Systems Thinking: Concepts for Problem Solving )1

2. 2 SYSTEMS THINKING: -- understands systems as dynamic wholes rather than as collections of parts, as webs of interdependent connections that create emerging patterns. -- sees isolated events in the larger context of emergent patterns as they unfold through time. -- sees how the parts within wholes interrelate, and identifies leverage points to lead to desired outcomes.

3. Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static 'snapshots.' It is a set of general principles -- distilled over the course of the twentieth century, spanning fields as diverse as the physical and social sciences, engineering, and management.... During the last thirty years, these tools have been applied to understand a wide range of corporate, urban, regional, economic, political, ecological, and even psychological systems. And systems thinking is a sensibility -- for the subtle interconnectedness that gives living systems their unique character. Peter Senge 3

4. "All the important problems we face are systemic problems: the survival of the planet's ecology, world peace, the elimination of hunger and disease, the education of youth, and social justice--just to name a few. Over the past several decades the systemic nature of these complex problems has gradually entered the public's consciousness. Complex problems are systemic, complex problems are counterintuitive, systemic problems are everywhere, systemic problems are messy problems." Hutchins 4

5. TOOLS Describe what you observe.  Behavior over Time Graphs  Causal Loop Diagrams, Leverage Points  Identify mental models ICEBERG MODEL React to Events – What do we notice? Describe the Patterns and Trends Identify the Systemic Structures - causal relationships Transform our Mental Models 5

6. STEPS FOR USING TOOLS: [See handout] (1) Observe an event or phenomenon. EXAMPLE: Americans consume a large amount of fast food. 6

7. (2) Describe patterns and trends Behavior over time Graph (BOTG) TIME – define your scale! – seconds, days, years? BEHAVIOR – be specific – define your scale! - Represent your perception -General trends OR -Data intensive -Detailed 7

8. Trends in fast food consumption 1960 Time (years) 2010 Amount of fast food consumed per person per year 8

9. 9 Average U.S. Food Expenditure Shares:At-Home vs.Away-from-Home. Source: Budget shares based on data from Food Expenditures Data Set, ERS, USDA; at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditures.aspx.

10. DATA INTENSIVE DETAILED DATA INTENSIVE DETAILED 10 Many examples of BOTGs in article assigned for reading.

11. (3) Identify system structure. What are causes and effects of the trend in higher fast food consumption? CAUSES: EFFECTS: 11

12. 12 Create causal loop diagrams (CLDs): -- do not have to be circular -- can simply show flow from causes to events, and then to effects -- may be several layers deep (root causes, ultimate effects)

13. Increasing fast food consumption Eat more fast foods Do less cooking, more free time Fill schedule with activities Tight schedule, little time to cook Need quick meals 13 Positive and negative feedback cycles and their effects Where are potential leverage points to alter trends?

14. Unclassified document from the Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – 12/2009 CLD’s may be simple to VERY COMPLEX 14

15. 15 BOTGs describe WHAT happens in a system (observed patterns) CLDs explain WHY (BEWARE: CLDs are always a simplified representation of reality!)

16. (4) Transform mental models. -- this step does not always occur --many blocks, pressures -- does not have to happen, for systems thinking to be valuable -- creation of cognitive dissonance is valuable What is the thinking that perpetuates these systemic structures? 16

17. Systems thinking: -- tools can be applied to any event or phenomenon. -- Identifies the underlying causes and ultimate effects of trends -- allows students to make connections among isolated phenomena -- can alter mental models -- empowers perspective, identifies leverage points for change in systems 17

18. 18 Habits of a Systems Thinker: Handout to discuss and take home. Also available,with many other resources, at: www.watersfoundation.org