1. Workshop Training May 24, 2016

2. Human systems are complex. Complex systems are non-linear, dynamic, and interconnected

3. It is difficult to understand a complex system through every day thought processes That’s why we need some tools

4. Iceberg Metaphor in Systems Thinking 4 Events

5. Iceberg Metaphor in Systems Thinking 5 Events Patterns of behavior

6. Iceberg Metaphor in Systems Thinking 6 Events Patterns of behavior Structure of the system

7. Iceberg Metaphor in Systems Thinking 7 Events Patterns of behavior Structure of the system Values and Goals of the System

8. “The systems-thinking lens allows us to reclaim our intuition about whole systems and hone our abilities to understand parts, see interconnections, ask “what-if ” questions about possible future behaviors, and be creative and courageous about system redesign.” Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer

9. The change a system, we need to understand the system. To understand a system, we need a map. These maps exist as “mental models” in your heads.

10. Agenda approach ∞ Day 1: Where have we been? Timeline Day 3: Where do we want to go? Loop selection Project identification Day 2: Behavior over time Where are we now? Causal-loop model How do we want to get there? Project definition Trends Variable identification 5 4 3 2 1

11. Process Pieces Outputs of each activity are the inputs of future activities You cannot do Step 5 without 1, 2, 3 and 4! The goal is to share experiences and knowledge, not convince others of ‘the right’ model Disagreements are productive. Note them and explore why Every participant’s perspective is critical to producing the most robust final model “All models are wrong, some are useful.”

12. Day 1

13. Timeline questionnaire What 3 events or milestones OUTSIDE of Rapid City affected quality of life in Rapid City (good or bad)? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What 3 events or milestones INSIDE Rapid City affected quality of life in Rapid City (good or bad)? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What 3 events or milestones in your personal life affected your quality of life in Rapid City?

14. What is a trend? A direction of MOVEMENT From more to less (less to more) From higher to lower (lower to higher) From A to B

15. Brainstorming exercise Describe 7 ±2 things you think improve, support, or degrade quality of life in Rapid City Write one complete sentence per sticky note (not a singular noun) If the word “and” or “or” is in your thought, make it two different sticky notes Consider tangible and intangible things Write clearly so others will be able to read your stick note Make sure the sticky side is at the top of your element

16. Silent sort rules No talking (it slows down the process and we will talk later) If a sticky note is like another sticky note, move them next to each other If a group has more than 4 or 5 sticky notes, create a new group Leave enough room between groups so it is clear what composes a group Moving a sticky note many times is ok

17. Creating a header card Use complete sentences that summarize the theme that people used when they created the group of detail sticky notes If the theme is a concern, issue, or problem it is helpful to use: “How to…” (abbreviated as “H2”) or “I wish I knew….” (abbreviated as “IWIK”) statements Avoid using nouns that categorize rather than descriptions

18. How to identify a variable? Provides a way to measure some aspect of a header card Noun Makes sense if increasing or decreasing Enables positive logic (e.g., happiness rather than unhappiness) Does not use the word “and” (that would be two variables) Can be tangible or intangible Can be a variable that no one has ever thought of or measured before

19. Day 2

20. Thinking Dynamically Communities are dynamic, not static. You can learn a lot about a community by examining behaviors over time. Behavior over time is a.k.a. time-path chart. You can chose tangible and/or intangible variables to map over time.

21. Today FuturePast

22. Today FuturePast Why this performance? Where does this lead? How do we get there? Desired Expected Sample Behavior-Over-Time Graph

23. Affinity to Variable to Behavior-over-time Had no early intervention or preventative services when young Had to take daughter out of school so she could get TBI services Disconnect of services between school and TBI services Family moved to Rapid City for more services for daughter with Traumatic Brain Injury How to find services for children with disabilities Number of services for disabled children Disabled child services capacity Number of disabled children in Rapid City

24. Why Model? “Name the parts” specifically Elucidate our logic Help you create an internally consistent, coherent story. Identify which elements of a complex system are more important— and under what conditions—can reveal important theoretical and practical implications.

25. Insight © Greer Black Company - 2006 All Rights Reserved Framework for thinking about models Experiential Understanding Explanatory Understanding “how things relate to me” “how things relate to things” Lonergan, 1957

26. Causal Loop Diagrams Moving from Individual Variables to Structure and System Behavior

27. A Language for “Systems” It’s hard to “talk in circles” so… We need a language to help us Understand how the structure of the system creates the behaviors we observe Represent the short- and long-term effects of our actions Capture the “side effects” of decisions Explore the consequences of alternative policies and decisions

28. Causal-loop Diagrams Causal-loop diagrams provide a useful language for representing system structure. Arrows indicate a causal (not correlative) influence. A change in X causes a change in Y.

29. Causal Link Examples

30. Polarity of Causal Links The + or – sign on the arrow indicates the nature of the causal relationship between the variables. A + indicates that, if X increases, then Y will increase above its previous value. A – indicates that, if X increases, then Y will decrease above its previous value.

31. Examples of Polarities + –

32. Example of many causes The same rules apply when there are multiple influences on a variable. + + -

33. Feedback Loops

35. Day 3

36. Identified sub-systems 1. Economic development 2. Quality of family life 3. Healthcare 4. Safety and Security 5. Education 6. Diversity 7. Housing 8. Leadership 9. Cultural development 10. Community engagement 11. Quality of life

37. What Is a System? A system is a set of interdependent parts sharing a common purpose. The “purpose” is from a particular perceiver’s point of view. The performance of the whole is affected by each and every one of its parts.

38. System Physics Today’s problems come from yesterday’s solutions. Cause and effect are not necessarily close together in space and time. The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. The system cure can make the situation worse before it gets better.

39. Behaviors of Systems

40. Essentials of a System Perspective Operational view Interdependent relationships “Circular” causality The feedback loop is the basic structural element of systems.

41. Behaviors Emerge from Structures You can begin to identify operational levers that generate the behavior over time because… Structure determines behavior. To understand “structures” that produce behaviors, we must take a system perspective.

42. How Do Systems Behave? Systems behave the way they are designed to behave. Systems behave the only way they can, given their design. The system’s structure drives its behavior. Managing a system requires a system-wide perspective of the structure and an understanding of system interdependencies—over time.

43. Title