PREV ’AIR : An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting Laurence ROUÏL

Built for operational purposes: In France public information related to pollution episodes (threshold exceedances) can be driven by observations but also by forecasts since 2004 The system :  a cooperative system for air quality monitoring, forecasting and mapping over Western Europe and France ;  set up in 2003 by: Model development : MOCAGE Meteorological forecasts National Meteorological servicesMétéo France Model development : CHIMERENational Research CentreCNRS Builds up and hosts the NRT database AQ expertise for the Ministry National Agency of Environment ADEME Builds up and hosts the prev ’air system Model development : CHIMERE AQ expertise for the Ministry Public organization under the supervision of the Ministry of Ecology INERIS PREV’AIR :

Architecture of the PREV’AIR System 3D Chemistry Transport Models...  CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS  MOCAGE / METEO-France  open system to other models... … Driven by meteorological forecasts:  AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher resolution forecasts)  ARPEGE, ALADIN... Using input data:  emissions inventory (EMEP)  boundary conditions (LMDZ-INCA/GOCART)  land-use (GLCF data base) NRT observation data:  BASTER/ADEME NRT database centralizes data from 40 French local AQ monitoring networks  bilateral cooperation with other partners Chemical forecasts Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts Numerical AQ forecast data Forecast s (maps) French NRT data (BASTER) Analysis (maps) Observation s (maps) Others partners NRT data...

 available at D+0, 00 h LT on the web site  daily peak and averaged concentration maps for D+0, D+1, D+2  pollutants: O 3, NO 2 (France and Europe) and PM (Europe) O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+0 O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+2 O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) D+1 PREV’AIR outputs: daily forecasts

PREV’AIR numerical data  extraction over user-defined domains  available through the Internet for AQ related institutions (user accounts) Applications  AQ information on public French channels (TV)  direct use for a local information (GIS)  input data for local modelling purposes : ESMERALDA (Paris + 6 regions) AERES (Marseille region), etc … PREV’AIR outputs: numerical forecast data

PREV’AIR NRT observation data National web sitePREV ’AIR 39 French AQ related organisms (AASQA) "real time" national database BASTER AASQA web sites Local servers 680 monitoring stations hour LOCAL NATIONAL O 3 NO 2 SO 2 PM10 PM2.5

Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12 of September 2004 Maps of daily max and mean measured concentrations :  for O 3, NO 2, PM2.5 and PM10  using observations made between 0h and T time  hour by hour updating if data available (pollution events)  for D day and the 6 previous days PREV’AIR outputs: maps of French NRT data

Modelled concentrations corrected with observations:  Observations collected in real-time for 150 stations (ozone)  Statistical adaptation using a kriging method  Available at J+0 with updates if near real time observations available  Operational for ozone since 2004 and for PM10 in 2006 For the day before and the current day July 31, 2004 PREV’AIR outputs: analyzed maps immediately available for information (web sites, media…) = O3 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m 3 ) O3 simulation (µg/m 3 ) + observations

PREV’AIR outputs: scores (forecast quality)

PREV’AIR outputs: time series (forecast quality)

Models evaluation and performances

PREV’AIR outputs: archives and budgets long term analysis Ozone, averaged peak (µg/m3) during summer 2003

Involvement in the GMES program (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) :  PROMOTE (ESA) = PROtocole MOniToring for the GMES service Element on atmospheric composition phase 1: demonstrator phase 2: definition of air quality services related to forecasting and mapping; definition of a cooperative framework (with other European AQ teams)  GEMS (EU) = Global and regional Earth-system (atmosphere) Monitoring using satellite and in-situ data contribution to the Air Quality part for the development of data assimilation methods and ensemble forecasts Towards an European framework...

=> Looking for bilateral cooperation with other European partners :  for NRT data exchange : necessary to build analyzed maps and to evaluate the simulated results (Italy, Germany, Belgium) (contact:  for forecasts or analyzed maps: users accounts could be available to download over specific areas (contacts: ; Towards a European framework...

END…. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR Domains: over Europe over France  Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1°  Vertical resolution:8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa Meteorological forecast data  AVN / NCEP for initialization and boundary conditions  MM5 higher resolution forecasts  ARPEGE Chemical scheme  MELCHIOR (47 species, 125 reactions) Aerosol module  7 species (PPM, SOA, nitrate, sulphate,  ammonium, Water Contents, dust) 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase) See http//euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere PREV’AIR 3D chemistry transport models

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR Domains Global Model / Over Europe / Over France  Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1°  Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hPa Meteorological forecast data  ARPEGE and ALADIN Chemical scheme  RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions) No aerosol module PREV’AIR 3D chemistry transport models