Sea-level rise scenarios and impacts Robert Nicholls and Nassos Vafeidis Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University ATLANTIS Kick-Off Meeting Hamburg, January 2003

Sea-level rise impacts Four main impacts: n Inundation and displacement of coastal lowlands; n Increased flood and storm damage; n Increased erosion; n Salinisation of surface and increased waters. Modified by: n Autonomous adaptation; n Planned adaptation.

Sea-level rise impacts 2 Four main impacts: n Inundation and displacement of coastal lowlands; n Increased flood and storm damage; n Increased erosion; ???????? n Salinisation of surface and increased waters. Modified by: n Autonomous adaptation; ???????? n Planned adaptation.

Sea-level rise n West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) collapse –5/6 m rise n Melting of Greenland –potential 6/7 m n Other processes –small glaciers (0.6 m maximum) –thermal expansion –regional effects on ocean level

Timescales of sea-level rise n WAIS collapse but over what timescale? –5/6 m rise over 1,000 years (???) 0.5 to 0.6 cm per year –5/6 m rise over 50 years (???) 10 to 12 cm per year

Timescales of sea-level rise n WAIS collapse but over what timescale? –5/6 m rise over 1,000 years (???) 0.5 to 0.6 cm per year –5/6 m rise over 50 years (???) 10 to 12 cm per year n Melting of Greenland –potential 6/7 m over 1,000 years (???) –can it happen faster?

Timescales of sea-level rise n WAIS collapse but over what timescale? –5/6 m rise over 1,000 years (???) –or 0.5/0.6 m per century (???) n Melting of Greenland –potential 6/7 m over 1,000 years (???) Consider these timescales, or ignore?

Impact Study n Need worst case scenario –time dimension ?? –unmitigated vs. stabilisation ?? n Approach –Literature review –Expert interviews (UK and USA) –Hadley Centre -- for stabilisation analysis ??

Impact Study 2 n Define study area –As an Arc-GIS layer n Define data sets –Elevation –Assets at risk

Impact Study 3 n Define hazard zones –inundation (permanent submergence) –flooding (temporary submergence) coast/river interactions –erosion -- but is this really needed or important?? n Deliverables –What do the case studies require?