Spatial-temporal behavior modeling of human development indexes in Water Supply and Sanitation Management in developing countries Celine DONDEYNAZ Supervisors: Prof Chen, Dr C Carmona-Moreno, Dr X Zhang

Background GOAL 7 Target 10 Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation United Nations Millennium Goals for Development International initiative to reduce poverty by 2015 Regarding water and sanitation supply the ultimate objective is to provide facilities to 100% of the population. To reach this objective intermediate goals were established

Background In 2004, in the sub Saharan Africa region are out off the track  Access to clean water = 56 %  Access to basic sanitation facilities = 37 % In 2004, in the Northern Africa region are in the track  Access to clean water = 91 %  Access to basic sanitation facilities= 77 % Ref: Joint Monitoring Programme, Mid-term assessment of the Millennium development goals, Pit latrine in Lalibela, Ethiopia, C.Dondeynaz

This reflects the efficiency of the WSS management in a specific developing country which is a combination of a wide range of variables a complex and a cross cutting issue Environmental Factors State of the WR Developing countries Social-organizational Factors - Human - activities pressure on WR - Governance and political commitment - Performance of WSS infrastructures Accessibility to WSS for population Society General welfare, health, social, economic… Progresses towards the MDG’s Aid delivery to the Water sector Variables ( interaction between them ) General framework for Water Supply and Sanitation management in developing countries Acronyms WR = Water Resources WSS = Water Supply and Sanitation MDG = Millennium’s Development Goals ?? Monitoring and Assessment Development strategies Donor Countries

Subject and questions 1/1 OBJECTIVE : Find spatial-temporal trends and pattern behaviors between environmental and social/organizational variables that could affect the level of WSS and the welfare level of a country. => Better understand the keys elements involved in an improved WSS management. HOW : Spatial-temporal analysis of the selected variables using multivariate analysis methods and GIS analysis tools. Main QUESTIONS 1. Are the different variables and data coherent enough to establish spatial-temporal behaviors? 2. Can be established measurable protocols and can behavior patterns be extrapolated in time and at other spatial scales? 3. Can data and patterns be integrated into a tool for better understanding these mechanisms ?

Subject 2/2 GENERAL STEPS FORESEEN Step 1 Data collection and coherence verification Step 2 Multivariate statistical analysis to find common and cross-linked behaviors among the different variables Step 3 Integration of indicators, factors and variables into a GIS analysis tool for the spatial analysis and visualisation of system dynamics. Temporal analysis will be performed in a later stage.

Step 1: DATA COLLECTION Scope of the data collection  International data providers : UNEP – FAO – JRC – WB …  Factors Considered : Environmental, Social/organisational  Scale : National country level in a first stage (Application at basin level in a second stage)  Time series : consistency issue requires a strict examination of data coherence and methodologies. SELECTION AND PREPARATION OF THE DATASET Ongoing process

LIST of Variables being considered Environmental Cluster Water resources availability (Water poverty index, Water stress, water bodies...) Land cover indicators (dryland coverage, forest cover..) Social/organizational Cluster Activities pressure ( water demand, irrigation level, industrial pollution, production indexes..) Demographic pressure ( growth, repartition Urban-rural) Governance Accessibility to WSS Cluster Population access to Sanitation ( total- rural- urban) Population access to Water Supply( total- rural- urban) Country Welfare Cluster Health indicators (water-born disease, mortality, life expectancy..) Poverty indicators ( HDI, National poverty index, education level...)

STEP 2 : STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Objective: To find out how the collected variables are interlinked, we will use several multivariate statistical methodologies to evaluate relationships between indicators. * XLSTAT * SPSS  Multivariate analyses - of the variables - at country level

STEP 3. Integration into a GIS  Objective: Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis tools will be also used to analyze the spatial behavior first at national level and maybe at regional level, if relevant.  Tools considered - GIS Open source software for spatial analyses - Web based analysis visualisation and database consultation tools Ref : D Chen, C Carmona, A Leone, S Shams, “Assessment of Open Source GIS Software for Water Resources Management in Developing Countries” 2008, 23 p, ISBN

Conclusion Thanks you for attention Questions ?