Yellow Cards: Do they Matter? Kurt W Rotthoff and Anne Anders.

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Presentation transcript:

Yellow Cards: Do they Matter? Kurt W Rotthoff and Anne Anders

Data Bundesliga (top German football League) Fall 2004 – Spring 2009 (5 seasons) Yellow Cards, Yellow to Red, Red, Fouls, Corner Kicks, Offside, Shots and Goals Win, Tie, Lose Ranks (top 5 at the end of last season)

Basic Findings Receiving a Yellow or Red card decrease the probability of winning. Fouls are significant and positive – aggressive play is valuable, pushing too hard is detrimental. The probability changes are different for the home and away teams.

Equation This is run (individually) for: Probit - Home team Win (1) (0 otherwise) Ordered Probit – Home team Win (2) Tie (1) Away Win (0)

HWin0.459 (there is a home field bias) Tie0.258 AWin0.282

This is the part where you give your thoughts on the paper. It’s my paper, so I’m biased.