Toward Sustainability: Does Science Matter? William E. Rees, PhD, FRSC UBC School of Community and Regional Planning 24 October 2008

“...man today is in flight from thinking.” (Martin Heidegger, Discourse on Thinking) Starting Premise

Real-World Context: The (Worsening) Scientific Consensus “We the undersigned, senior members of the world’s scientific community, hereby warn all humanity… A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.” (UCS, World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity 1992) “At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning. Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of the Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.” (MEA, Living Beyond Our Means 2005)

The Geo-Political Dimension The Age of Consequences (November 2007). Washington, Center for Strategic and International Studies “We predict an [inevitable] scenario in which people and nations are threatened by massive food and water shortages, devastating natural disasters and deadly disease outbreaks” (John Podesta, contributing author). Rich countries could “go through a 30-year process of kicking people away from the lifeboat” as the world’s poorest face the worst environmental consequences” (Leon Fuerth, contributing author).

Climate Change Summary (as of Oct 2007) Temperatures are now within ≈1 C° of the maximum temperature of the past million years. It is now “very unlikely” (≤ 10%) that the world can avoid a potentially catastrophic mean global temperature increase of 2 C° Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are now growing more rapidly than “business-as-usual”, the most pessimistic of the IPCC scenarios. (Increases are 35% higher than expected since 2000.) Some warming has been offset by cooling from other anthropogenic factors (suspended aerosols). Without this effect, mean global temperatures would be even higher.

Unprecedented Losses of Sea Ice In 2007 (almost equalled in 2008)

Meltdown: Decades ahead of schedule? IPCC Projections: Way Off!

Recent findings turn the screws “Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends” To stabilize GHGs at even [a catastrophic] 650 ppmv CO 2 e, the majority of OECD nations must begin to make draconian emission reductions within a decade. Unless we can reconcile economic growth with unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of 6% per year), this will require a planned economic recession. (Anderson and Bows Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A doi: /rsta ) P.S. On 23 September, scientist announced the discovery of massive venting of methane from beneath the Arctic Ocean into the atmosphere.

Bottom Line: Our best science says that ours is a World in Overshoot The human enterprise already exceeds global carrying capacity by 25-30%. On 23 September, we passed ‘overshoot day’ for For the rest of the year humanity will live by depleting natural capital. Human Ecological Footprint

In this light, what’s the case for intelligent life on Earth? H. sapiens claims unmatched intelligence and unique capacities for forward planning and the exercise of moral agency. Techno-industrial society is allegedly a scientific and knowledge-based culture. Yet, despite decades of hardening evidence and rising rhetoric on the risks of global change, no national government, no prominent international agency, no corporate leader anywhere has begun to advocate in public let alone implement the kind of policy responses that are called forth by the best science available today.

We remain prisoners of the perpetual growth myth. According to Lawrence Summers then Chief Economist, World Bank (1991) “There are no... limits to the carrying capacity of the earth that are likely to bind any time in the foreseeable future… The idea that we should put limits on growth because of some natural limit, is a profound error [with] staggering social costs.”

The myth is reflected in human population dynamics Continuous growth—population and economic—is an anomaly. The growth spurt that recent generations take to be normal is the single most abnormal period of human history Population: 6.8 billion The use of fossil fuel beginning in the 19 th Century allowed the explosive growth of the human enterprise

Cause and Effect: An Anomalous Period of Geometric Growth During the 20th Century: Population quadrupled to 6.3 billion Energy use increased 16- fold Industrial production grew 40-fold Water use increased 9 times Fish catches rose by a factor of 35 Carbon Dioxide emissions increased by a factor of 17 Sulphur emissions increased 13-fold Other air pollutants rose by a factor of 5 Tropical deforestation and desertification accelerated (etc.)

We seem truly “In flight from thinking” Most approaches to climate change and sustainability today are delusional. Such vaunted ‘solutions’ as renewable energy, hybrid cars, green buildings, smart growth, the new urbanism, green consumerism, etc., all assume that salvation resides in maintaining growth through greater material and economic efficiency.

Examples: Myth and mass delusion What have we been sniffing? Gasoline is a powerful halucinatory drug. It’s habitual users will believe anything to avoid facing reality. Since when is a paltry 36 mpg ‘green’ or remotely sustainable? And the delusions only get worse….

National Geographic, May 2008

Efficiency alone won’t cut it: The Jevons effect “It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.” (Jevons 1865).

This is a ship overloaded with inefficient autos, appliances, electronic gadgets, etc.

This is ship overloaded with efficient goods (but sinking just the same and possibly faster)

Corn Ethanol: Substitution as Fuelish Fantasy Does not reduce carbon emissions. This + increased emissions of other GHGS = increased climate forcing (global warming) Does not reduce dependence on imported oil Does not improve the quality of tailpipe gases Increases rates of soil erosion and air, water, and soil pollution Increases local scarcity and raises food prices in food importing countries. (Knowing this, people in rich countries are making a conscious decision to place fueling their cars ahead of feeding people in poor countries.) Displaces soybean production to Brazil, which accelerates tropical deforestation, further increasing carbon dioxide emissions and biodiversity loss.

Bio-fuels: Geographically Delusional Dedicating all present U.S. corn and soybean production to biofuels would meet only 12% of US gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand. To replace US oil consumption with biofuels would required 1.4 million sq.mi. of corn for ethanol and 8.8 million sq. mi. of soybean for biodiesel. Total US cropland 625,000 sq.mi.

This does not include the massive carbon footprint of the fossil fuel required to make the biofuel (possibly equivalent to the existing carbon footprint). Eco-Footprint (Sq Miles)

Bottom Line: Continued Material Growth is Unsupportable To ‘sustain’ just the present world population at the material standards enjoyed by North Americans, would require four additional Earth- like planets! Regrettably “Good planets are hard to find.”

The Really ‘Inconvenient Truth’: End of Growth “Industrialized world reductions in material consumption, energy use, and environmental degradation of over 90% will be required by 2040 to meet the needs of a growing world population fairly within the planet’s ecological means” (BCSD 1993; ‘Getting Eco-Efficient’). To avoid a mean global temperature increase above 2 C degrees, the world must reduce carbon emissions by 90% by 2050” (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research 2006). For sustainability with equity, North Americans should be taking steps to reduce their ecological footprints by 80% to their equitable Earth-share (1.8 gha) (Rees 2006).

Humans display a universal propensity to deny uncomfortable realities—we actively repress intelligence and reason “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim” (Gustave Le Bon 1895). “For us to maintain our way of living, we must… tell lies to each other, and especially to ourselves… the lies act as barriers to truth. These barriers… are necessary because without them many deplorable acts would become impossibilities” (D. Jensen 2000).

“Know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed” (Count Axel Oxenstierna of Sweden) “Not truth, but error has always been the chief factor in the evolution of nations…” (Le Bon 1895). “Wooden-headedness, the source of self deception...plays a remarkably large role in government. It consists in assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions [i.e., ideology] while ignoring any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts” (Tuchman 1984).

An Explanatory Cognitive Mechanism During individual development, sensory experiences and cultural norms literally shape the human brain’s synaptic circuitry in patterns that reflect and embed those experiences. Subsequently,people seek out compatible experiences and, “when faced with information that does not agree with their [preformed] internal structures, they deny, discredit, reinterpret or forget that information” (Wexler, 2006).

A Convenient Truth: Income Growth in Rich Countries Produces Few Gains Since 1976, the Canadian economy has grown by 130%. GDP per capita is 70% per cent higher. There has been no change in the percentage of the population in poverty or in the unemployment rate. The absolute numbers of impoverished and unemployed has increased. Subjective well-being is constant or declining. (Siegel 2006)

The Gathering Storm The Good News We have the technology today to enable a 75%-80% reduction in energy and (some) material consumption while actually improving quality of life. The Bad News Yet we do not act. Privileged elites with the greatest stake in the status quo control the policy levers. Ordinary people hold to the expansionist myth. Society remains in eco-paralysis. “The scientifically necessary is politically unfeasible but the politically feasible is scientifically irrelevant.”

Closing Words of the 2007 Tällberg Forum (Sweden ) “ Do we know what to do? Probably yes. Will we do it? Probably not. ”