Carlos Dobkin and Christopher Carpenter The Effects of Alcohol Access on Consumption and Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age

Background/Motivation Alcohol consumption costs society hundreds of billions annually (IOM 2004) The government spends billions trying to reduce alcohol consumption and its adverse effects

The Design Focus on change in access to alcohol at age 21 due to MLDA laws –Clear source of identifying variation in alcohol consumption Regression Discontinuity Design –Parametric: Model the age profile with a polynomial –Nonparametric: Local Linear Regression

Data: Alcohol Consumption National Health Interview Survey (Sample Adult Supplement) –16,107 Adults Years of Age Vital Statistics Mortality –Census of Deaths in the United States –Considerable Detail on Cause of Death

Summary of Alcohol Findings There is an immediate persistent increase in alcohol consumption at age 21 Only modest evidence of an increase in first time use of alcohol More people are drinking but drinking intensity does not appear to have gone up much

Summary of Mortality Findings Big persistent increase in mortality Increase due largely to MVA but also evidence of an increase in suicides Biggest increase among white males in college

Conclusions Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) laws substantially reduce drinking and mortality The age profiles of consumption and mortality suggest it is not people’s first experience with drinking that is the problem The lack of a substantial change in drinking intensity suggest that it is drinking itself that is the problem The implied elasticities suggest a substantial amount of the mortality among young adults is due to alcohol consumption –Days drinking and days heavy drinking go up by 21 and 20 percent respectively –Mortality goes up by percent 9 percent –If one of these is the causal pathway then the implied elasticity is about.4