1 Getting Ready for Winter: An NCEP Update “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York November 2, 2004

2 Outline NWS Seamless Suite of Products New Climate Forecast System: Seasonal Climate Prediction 6-10 day forecasts 4-7 day gridded forecasts 1-3 day range: Winter Weather Desk NCEP Update –Computer –Building –Collaborative Activities/Test Beds Summary

3 New CFS CD 6-10 Day Forecast Upgrade DGEX + HPC support for Days 4 -7 HPC Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3

The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004) 1.Atmospheric component Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical Recent upgrades in model physics  Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)  cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)  gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)  cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 2.Oceanic component GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) Free surface 3.Coupled model Once-a-day coupling Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

5 Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles Simulated (top) Observed (bottom)

6 Latest CPC Forecast: Weak El Nino conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.

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9 Without skill mask CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month)

10 With skill mask If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the period is below 0.3, values are not shown CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month)

11 Without skill mask CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month)

12 With skill mask If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the period is below 0.3, values are not shown CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month)

13 CPC Winter Season Forecast

14 CDC Calibration of 1998 MRF Dynamical models of the atmosphere all contain biases (differences between model and atmosphere climatologies) and systematic errors which are flow-regime dependent. These errors cause the model to make forecasts which are, for example, too dry/wet, warm/cold in comparison with what is observed. The errors described above cause the probability forecasts from ensemble models to be“uncalibrated” in comparison with nature. This means that when we look at model forecasts, we find that the probabilities predicted for wet or dry, warm or cold, do not happen in nature with the same frequency. CDC’s reforecast calibration greatly reduces this calibration error. Upgrade to the 6–10; 7–14 Day Forecast

15 CDC Calibration To calibrate the MRF, CDC re-ran the 15-member ensemble of the model over a 23 year period and compared the probability forecasts from the model with the frequencies of events (wet/dry, warm/cold) in nature. This leads to rules for correcting future, real-time probability forecasts from this model. CDC automated approach for temp/precip is as good or better than official forecast during 1 year test period Operational implementation Sept 04

day forecast Valid Nov 2 – 6, 2004 Temperature Precipitation

Day Gridded Forecast The following grids are being generated daily Experimental grids can be viewed here – Production Methodology documentation – gy.pdf All grids extend offshore to cover the coastal waters Verification program underway –Maximum temperature –Minimum temperature –12 hour PoP –6 hourly dew point –6 hourly wind (direction and speed) –6 hourly cloud cover –12 hourly weather

Day Gridded Products Max TempMin Temp 7 Day Forecast Valid November 3, 2004

19 Focus on Winter Weather ?Goals of 3 year experiment from : ?Improve Winter Weather Services to the public through coordination of the winter weather watches/warnings with National guidance products ?Test Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for applications to winter weather forecasting ?Motivation: ?Jan 24-25, 2000; December 30, 2000: March 4-6, 2001 NWS Winter Weather Desk

20 NWS Winter Weather Desk ?Time line: Sep 15 – April 1 ?Participants ?NCEP HPC ?Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance ?Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology) ?WFOs ?All CONUS WFOs ?Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings ?Products: ?24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3) ?72h Low tracks graphic and discussion

21 Winter Weather Desk Products Indicate the probability (potential) for a location to receive specific thresholds of accumulated snow or ice. Snowfall - lines represent the probability (low, moderate, and high) that enclosed areas will receive equal to or greater than a specific threshold accumulation (4", 8" or 12") of snowfall in a 24 hour period. Freezing Rain - depicts the probability in the same manner and time period as snowfall, but with an accumulation threshold of.25" (one quarter of an inch) of freezing rain. PROBABILITY GRAPHICS FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN Prob > 4” Prob > 8” Prob > 12”Prob > 0.25” Day 1

22 Winter Weather Desk Products Depicts the forecast location and central pressure of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future. The low position and track forecast by the meteorologist at NCEP HPC is depicted in black. About 20 different computer model forecasts of low position for a given time period are depicted with symbols. Provides a user both the preferred position and track of the low and a sense of the uncertainty with the forecast. LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC

23 Dec Event Ranked 15 th on all time ALY snowstorm list Very little Snow in E NY/W NE in NOV First week of December featured a major event

24 NCEP HPC WWE Guidance

25 NCEP HPC WWE Guidance

26 Regional Statistics ERWWE1WWE2WWE3 # WFOs823 POD.89.90*.92* FAR CSI LT–Warn1315*18* * Broke previous ER regional record Trend of ER WWE WFO stats

27 Short Range Ensemble Forecast ?15 members twice per day ?63 hrs from 9 and 21Z ?Resolution upgraded August 2004 ?To 32 km from 48 ?To 60 levels from 45 ?Mean and spread charts available for forecaster use ?Most intensive use is in production of probability of snow and ice accumulations product ? 0.25” prcp

28 Planned SREF Upgrades Summer 2005 Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) Improved and new products (Convective, Aviation, Tropical, Energy) Output SREF forecasts for Alaska Implement Grid Based Bias Correction Improve Probabilistic FVS verification Develop Confidence Factors for forecasts Add 5 WRF members Add RSM BUFR files Common WRF post-processor Implement ensemble mean BUFR files

29 NCEP Update

30 Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) 2.4x upgrade operational by mid-January, 2005 Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-January, 2005 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) $20M/Year Investment

31 NCEP’s Future Location Current Location NOAA Science Center World Weather Building Camp Springs New Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (Early FY08)

32 NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (Early FY08)

33 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction oLease build-to-suit facility with 268,762 sq ft oHouse 800 staff oFederal employees, contractors, visiting scientists o40 spaces for visiting professors and students oFrom the World Weather Building oNational Weather Service’s (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) oNational Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service’s (NESDIS) research and satellite services oFrom Silver Spring oOffice of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research’s (OAR) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL)

34 NCEP Test Beds Developmental Test bed Center (EMC) Climate Test Bed (EMC, CPC) USWRP/Joint Hurricane Test Bed (TPC) Hazardous Weather Forecast Test Bed (SPC) Aviation Test Bed (AWC) USWRP/Hydrometeorological Test Bed (HPC) (in progress) Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

35 Summary NWS/NCEP’s Seamless Suite of Products from S/I forecasts to daily support for WFO watch/warning responsibilities have been upgraded –Based on new research results –Enhanced modeling capabilities –Systematic implementation and test of a “collaborative forecast” approach NCEP’s infrastructure needs – computer, building, staff – are being addressed NCEP will continue to make advanced products readily available

36 Background Slides

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