Opportunities and Impediments David Culler University of California, Berkeley Retreat January 13, 2010 “Energy permits things to exist; information, to behave purposefully.” W. Ware, 1997

Energy is THE Problem Energy and the environmental impact of extraction, use, and disposal THE problem of the Industrial Age We need to find Information Age solutions to THE Industrial Age Problem it starts with the Faustian bargain of oblivious consumption 2

The Grid: Marvel of Industrial Age Design Deliver high quality low-cost power To millions of customers over thousands of miles Synchronized to <<16 ms cycle (60 Hz) With no orders, no forecasts, no plans No inventory anywhere in the supply chain To enable rapid economic & industrial growth through oblivious consumption 3

A New Reality … 1.Energy becoming increasingly dear –increased cost of acquisition –inclusion of environmental costs 2.Improvements in energy efficiency cause high dynamic variability in the load –high peak-to-ave ratio, bursty 3.Limitations of existing grid present transmission and distribution bottlenecks 4.Incorporation of renewable resources reduces control over supply –most are non-dispatchable (solar, wind) 4

Aware Co-operative Grid 5 Monitor, Model, Mitigate Deep instrumentation Waste elimination Efficient Operation Shifting, Scheduling, Adaptation Forecasting Tracking Market Availability Pricing Planning

Grid Exists 6 Conventional Electric Grid Generation Transmission Distribution Load

Internet Exists 7 Conventional Electric Grid Generation Transmission Distribution Load Conventional Internet

Intelligent Energy Network as Overlay on Both 8 Conventional Electric Grid Generation Transmission Distribution Load Intelligent Energy Network Load IPS Source IPS energy subnet Intelligent Power Switch Conventional Internet

Where to Focus? Buildings … 72% of electrical consumption, 40% of total consumption, 42% of GHG footprint 370 B$ in US annual utility bill 9.5% of GDP in bldg construction/renovation Primarily Coal generation Primary opportunity for renewable supplies 9 Renewable energy consumption Electricity source Coal consumption by sector

Energy “Spaghetti” Chart

A Time of Opportunities 11

UCB as Living Laboratory CAL climate action plan CoGen Plant plan Action Webs SECORI 50% BEARS –Singapore CITRIS Environmental Operational

CEC Building  Grid Pervasive monitoring of a large complex load Understand energy spend, reduce it, forecast Optimize in concert with an intelligent grid 13 Conventional Electric Grid Generation Transmission Distribution Load Conventional Internet

ACTION WEB Foundations 1.Observe and infer with a viewpoint to planning and modifying action 2.Use a hierarchy of platforms to develop and modify action plans 3.Tasking sensors, programming the ensemble 4.Closing the loop

AdobERC ADaptively Optimal Buildings Engineering Research Center

A building … should not be viewed as a fixed structure with HVAC, lighting, and other utility systems, but instead as a plant that manufactures customized environments to maximize occupant productivity, while minimizing energy and environmental cost throughout the supply chain. Like modern manufacturing, buildings must become context-aware, interactive facilities that actively optimize for productivity and efficiency. They must gain a sense of time at multiple scales, utilizing historical trends, current and projected demands, and forecasts of energy supply and weather to develop production plans and schedules. This type of planning will allow optimally harnessing renewable sources, sharing energy storage with neighboring adaptive buildings and cooperating with the power grid.

Adobe Thrusts Human / Building / Computer Interface and Factors : extract the ‘building environmental product specification’ from occupant actions, activities, and operational plans. Building Integrated Modeling : integrates the design-time Building Information Model (BIM) electronic documents, or post-hoc derived BIMs, with models of occupant operational processes to permit analysis of real and proposed building operation. Building Observation and Measurement creates the fundamental awareness of the building to its own state, integrates diverse physical information from legacy instruments, pervasive sensor networks, activity detectors, the requirements and needs of its occupants, and the interactions of these with the external world. Building-wide Optimal Control : construct and execute a model-predictive multi- objective optimal control strategy that maintains a minimal energy environment over observed demand within safety and operational constraints, simultaneously integrating subsystems (HVAC, Security, Lighting), internal activities and external factors. Integrity, Security and Reliability : protect and secure IT-centric, interactive buildings that are aware of and respond to their occupants and the information regarding their occupants. External Factors : address optimizing the building in concert with an intelligent grid and associated policy issues.

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Energy Innovation Hubs –Fuels from Sunlight; –Energy Efficient Building Systems Design; –Modeling and Simulation for Nuclear Reactors. Bold Perspective –Orchestrating rapid, transformative changes to the energy system portfolio represents a technological challenge of historic scale. –Success will require major national mobilization of basic and applied energy research capabilities, accompanied by commensurate investments in engineering and development necessary to accelerate the deployment of revolutionary energy technologies. 20

Pervasive IT breakthrough Selkowitz, ARPA-E meeting ARPA-E,TC Chan 21

NUFIPBF ( ) 22

but… probably the only domain more resistant to innovation than buildings is utilities 23 Time log of something log Time anything

Impediments Scale Cost Criticality Physical Embedding Entrenched Vested Interests Vertically integrated silos Standards, Faux-Standards, and … Fragmentation Diversity (site, use, design, …) 24

Impediments (cont) Lack of Product Orientation or Cycle On-site Manufacturing (construction ) Not growth oriented Energy under valued Intertwined policy, regulation, certification... 25

Impediments (cont) Inherently Multi-disciplined CS “undisciplined” Performance ill-defined or undefined No benchmarks No measurement or system validation No functional definition Uncertainty Challenged empirical methodology 26

Embrace The Challenge 27

Example: Testbeds 28

Example: PC (personal climate) 29

Internet 101 Plan for change, enable distributed innovation –what will be, not just was is (or was) Intelligence at the edge, not the core –Smart Grid => Dumb Grid with Smart End Points –Reliability and performance by buffering and continuous measurement and adaptation –Lower cost, incremental Deployment, Greater Resilience Horizontal Layering not Vertical Integration –Technology agnostic protocols –Application agnostic protocols Create the new as an overlay on the old 30

Thoughts … 31