Forecast Presentations Tom Robinson

Presenting Use a bright background and dark lettering Speak loudly (yell if necessary) Do not say “here”. Here is Honolulu. Say the location Instead of “There is a low here moving over here” say “There is a low over Alabama moving eastward to Florida”  Know your states! Physically point to locations. Use your finger or a laser pointer. Don't just stand still

Presenting Continued Tell us what we are looking at. Explain it as if we are seeing it for the first time. If it's a model, tell us which model, what height, what the contours are, what the color fill is, where the location is Tell us the date and time we are looking at. Instead of saying “This is the IR loop” say “This is the IR satellite loop for the past 24 hours over the continental United States.” Explain to us what your interpretation of what is happening. Do not just leave it to the audience to figure out. You are presenting the forecast to us.

Slide Reading DO NOT READ SLIDES!!!! READING SLIDES IS BORING! PLEASE DO NOT READ RIGHT OFF OF YOUR SLIDES WORD FOR WORD! You can read stuff from your actual forecast, but do not prepare a script of your presentation.

What to Include Interesting Fact Past Weather Current conditions Model forecasts Personal forecast

Interesting Fact Record high and low “This day in history...” Forecast contest scores and standings

Past Weather Past observations Satellite loops Explain what's going on, don't just show it to us Make this big picture. Mostly synoptic features, unless something awesome happened at our location This is so we can get a feel for what has led to the current conditions

Current Weather Surface map Radar (national and local) Sounding data Current observations (METAR)

Forecast Models Maps before MOS Tell us the models we are looking at, the level, and the details (do not assume we know) Start with upper levels. NEVER start with surface map. The surface data (precipitation and SLP) are the worst forecast variables. 500Mb vorticity and 200mb winds are MUCH better

Models Continued Show more than one model (I am guilty of not doing this, which is why I show ensembles) Ensembles are useful for comparing spread in models, but not necessarily for forecasting If different models disagree, comment on that and explain the difference.

Your Forecast Always show your own forecast so everyone has a starting point Give scientific explainations for why you chose these things “I went with NAM because I like it” is not good enough. “The GFS has been significantly forecasting much better for this than any other model” is half decent reason “The humidity will be low so there will be a lot of radiational cooling” is a good reason

Comparison Compare your forecast to someone else's. Use weather.gov, weather.com, accuweater.com, or all three. The NWS website (weather.gov) will participate in the forecast challenge, so it is a good one to use Aaron likes the meteogram on the web site and he will ask to see it. Just put it in your presentation to make him happy

Concluding Always ask if there are any questions Do not be insulted if someone asks you to show something Don't be worried if there are no questions Accept feedback on how your presentation went This is how you get better