IMO 18-Month Outlook Presentation to the F&ASC June 25, 2003

Outline 18 - Month Outlook - Assumptions & Risks - Results - Key Findings and Conclusions - Questions

Changes from Mar 25, 2003 Outlook demand & energy generally up in-service delays modeled at Bruce, Pickering changes to generator planned outages updated transmission projects and planned outages delay to 4th Michigan-Ontario phase angle regulator

Existing Resources * Bruce “A” units not included Pickering “A” units included

Scheduled Resource Additions

Major Outage Risks Summer 20031,300 MW Winter 2003/43,300 MW Summer 20046,400 MW Winter 2004/53,900 MW

Forecast Demands methodology - no significant change impacts to end of May 2003 captured increase to peaks most weeks energy up

2003 energy: TWh 2004 energy: TWh Forecast Demands

Weekly Peak Demand: Actual and Forecast

Reserve Margins: Normal Weather

Reserve Margins: Normal Weather comparison of Q vs Q1 2003

Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather

Findings & Conclusions Nuclear units still not available –Ontario faces summer similar to 2002 or tighter, until they return –tight supply situation at times, especially with weather extremes –heavy reliance on imports Existing Resource Scenario –negative reserves for more than half the period –many outages at risk –reliance on imports –risk of insufficient supply at times of extreme weather Planned Resource Scenario –significantly improved resource adequacy picture –reserves exceed requirements for most periods –still some periods with reserves below required levels

Transmission similar to last Outlook limits to transmission outages expected under peak conditions, especially in summer reactive supply concerns continue to exist under peak summer conditions in Toronto, Windsor and Thunder Bay areas Findings & Conclusions (cont’d)

Overall Conclusions

End