Information Society – Future Prospects Ross Anderson Cambridge University and Foundation for Information Policy Research

What Sort of Revolution? The predictable effects of a new technology are swamped by unpredicted side-effects The predictable effects of a new technology are swamped by unpredicted side-effects Railways were built to allow people to get from London to Manchester in a day, not a week Railways were built to allow people to get from London to Manchester in a day, not a week Medium term they also allowed cities to grow much bigger; they spread suburbs; and moved armies Medium term they also allowed cities to grow much bigger; they spread suburbs; and moved armies Cars also had huge direct effects Cars also had huge direct effects The printing press, and the telegraph, had more subtle effects (and side effects) The printing press, and the telegraph, had more subtle effects (and side effects)

Benefits of Computers It’s all about computation – that is, software It’s all about computation – that is, software ‘You can have software without the Internet, but you can’t have the Internet without software’ (Karen Spärck-Jones) ‘You can have software without the Internet, but you can’t have the Internet without software’ (Karen Spärck-Jones) What’s the computation for? It’s not content that’s driven the Internet but , chat, etc – whether for leisure or remote working What’s the computation for? It’s not content that’s driven the Internet but , chat, etc – whether for leisure or remote working That is – the main application is other people: how can software enhance people? That is – the main application is other people: how can software enhance people? The next wave – the Internet of things: how can software enhance things? The next wave – the Internet of things: how can software enhance things?

New Uses of Software Computer game vendors started using authentication in game cartridges to subsidise consoles from software sales Computer game vendors started using authentication in game cartridges to subsidise consoles from software sales Xerox started using authentication in ink cartridges to tie them to the printer Xerox started using authentication in ink cartridges to tie them to the printer Followed by HP, Lexmark … Lexmark’s case against SCC, EU recycling directive Followed by HP, Lexmark … Lexmark’s case against SCC, EU recycling directive Accessory control now spreading to phone batteries, car parts, … Accessory control now spreading to phone batteries, car parts, …

Unforeseen Consequences! The music majors campaigned hard for DRM from The music majors campaigned hard for DRM from But what happens when you link a concentrated industry (platforms) with a less concentrated industry (music)? But what happens when you link a concentrated industry (platforms) with a less concentrated industry (music)? Varian’s analysis (January 2005) – most of the resulting surplus goes to the platform owner Varian’s analysis (January 2005) – most of the resulting surplus goes to the platform owner By July 2005, the music industry was busy complaining about Apple! By July 2005, the music industry was busy complaining about Apple! By September 2005, power was clearly shifting from the music majors to the independents By September 2005, power was clearly shifting from the music majors to the independents

The Information Society More and more goods contain software More and more goods contain software So more and more industries are starting to become like the software industry. We’ll have the good, the bad and the ugly! So more and more industries are starting to become like the software industry. We’ll have the good, the bad and the ugly! The good: flexibility, rapid response The good: flexibility, rapid response The bad: frustration, poor service The bad: frustration, poor service The ugly: monopolies The ugly: monopolies How will the law evolve to cope? How will the law evolve to cope?

Property The enlightenment idea - that the core mission of government wasn’t defending faith, but defending property rights The enlightenment idea - that the core mission of government wasn’t defending faith, but defending property rights 18th-19th century: rapid evolution of property and contract law 18th-19th century: rapid evolution of property and contract law Realization that these are not absolute! Realization that these are not absolute! Abolition of slavery, laws on compulsory purchase, railway regulation, labour contracts, tenancy contracts, … Abolition of slavery, laws on compulsory purchase, railway regulation, labour contracts, tenancy contracts, …

Intellectual Property Huge expansion as software etc have become more important - 7+ Euro directives since 1991 Huge expansion as software etc have become more important - 7+ Euro directives since 1991 As with `ordinary’ property and contract in about 1850, we’re hitting serious conflicts As with `ordinary’ property and contract in about 1850, we’re hitting serious conflicts Competition law - legal protection of DRM mechanisms leads to enforcement of illegal contracts Competition law - legal protection of DRM mechanisms leads to enforcement of illegal contracts Environmental law - cartridge recycling mandated, after printer vendors use software to stop it Environmental law - cartridge recycling mandated, after printer vendors use software to stop it Privacy law – must respond to DRM, data mining Privacy law – must respond to DRM, data mining Trade law – governments will fight companies over price discrimination, bundling, single market issues… Trade law – governments will fight companies over price discrimination, bundling, single market issues…

Concluding Remarks We’re moving towards pervasive computing – software in everything that costs over $10 and that you don’t eat or drink We’re moving towards pervasive computing – software in everything that costs over $10 and that you don’t eat or drink This will challenge existing social and policy assumptions on many levels – including our laws on privacy, competition, trade, employment and the environment This will challenge existing social and policy assumptions on many levels – including our laws on privacy, competition, trade, employment and the environment Economics and Security Resource Page – Economics and Security Resource Page – Foundation for Information Policy Research – Foundation for Information Policy Research –