Recap of WY 2006. ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan.

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Presentation transcript:

Recap of WY 2006

ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan

Evaluation of Sept 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY WY 2003 WY 2004WY 2005

Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4 Jan3.4 <= 0.6 Evaluation of Aug 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2006

Nino to 0.6 Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY (Nino3.4 anomalies between -0.4 and 0.6) Naturalized Flow (cfs) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean

Used range: Jan3.4 >= 0.0 Jan3.4 <= 0.6 Evaluation of Sept 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2006

Nino to 0.6 Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.0 and 0.6) Naturalized Flow (cfs) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean

ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= -0.4 AND <= 0.6 Obs. System Storage Sept 28, 2006

WY 2007 Forecast

April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.

Modified Flow (cfs) Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.7 and 1.5) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = LTM from Blue = Ensemble Mean

ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.7 AND <=

Selected References on Compositing Techniques: Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : Werner K, Brandon D, Clark M, et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6):

Conclusions: The WY 2006 ESP forecast predicted a range of flows centered around near normal conditions. Actual flows in 2006 were towards the upper range of this forecast, probably due in part to an unusually large ENSO forecast error. A moderate warm ENSO event is expected for the winter of ESP traces from associated with a forecasted range of Nino3.4 anomalies from suggest elevated drought risks for WY 2007.