Germplasm Enhancement for Adaptation to Climate Changes Marcelo J Germplasm Enhancement for Adaptation to Climate Changes Marcelo J. Carena, Professor & Corn Breeder NDSU Corn Breeding and Genetics North Dakota State University Aug 3 2011 Brasil Maize Early Generation Hybrid Lattice Trials Ready for Harvest on NDSU Fargo Campus (S of 19th Ave N) in North Dakota Maize Early Generation Hybrid Lattice Trials Ready for Harvest In Northern North Dakota

Value and Cost of Public Maize Genetic Improvement Value and Cost of Public Maize Genetic Improvement (Crosbie and Lamkey, 1999) Pre-biotech Retrospective Look at Corn Improvement (1865-1996) Assuming 2/3 of Actual Gains Due to Genetic Improvement Macro Analysis of Maize Breeding Costs and Benefits for USA (1994 Dollars and All Public Programs) 2

Value and Cost of Public Maize Genetic Improvement (Crosbie and Lamkey, 1999) $ 3 Billion Were Invested in 130 Years. How Much After 1996? $ 260 Billion Were the Result From Research on Applied Maize Breeding Plant Breeding Is Harder Than It Looks. Need for Unique Training. But, How Many Applied Breeding Programs Left???? Meaning Integrating Pre-Breeding with CV Development?? Training the Next Breeder Generation with CV Development? 2

Public Creativity + Industry Vision = Business Cold Spring Harbor Lab, Long Island (1904-1916) CREATORS OF THE HYBRID MAIZE IDEA CONNECTICUT, NEW HAVEN AES (1905 - 1920) MN & ND Public Creativity + Industry Vision = Business We Have Worked with the Same Method for > 100 Yeas BUT Breeding Programs often do not Take Advantage of Marginal Environmental Conditions

Annual Planted Acreage and Productivity of North Dakota Maize Maize Productivity (Bu/ac)

Production Challenges/Opportunities in ‘the North’ Production Challenges/Opportunities in ‘the North’ Period Between Killing Frosts Effective Heat Supply Rainfall? NORTH DAKOTA FARMERS

Production Challenges/Opportunities in ‘the North’ Production Challenges/Opportunities in ‘the North’ Period Between Killing Frosts Effective Heat Supply Rainfall YIELD IS AS IMPORTANT AS OTHER TRAITS. BREEDERS VS. PRODUCER/EXTENSION MIND SET While Weather can be a Disadvantage for Production (e.g., 2009), It can be a Breeding Advantage to Screen and Discard Unstable, Weak Maize Varieties in LOCALLY Run Breeding Programs. Breeding for Adaptation is Best Done under Target Challenging but Uniform Environmental Challenges where Strengths/Weaknesses are Quickly Identified and Most Stable Genotypes Succeed.

US Northern Maize Production/Breeding Concerns Billions of Dollars are being Lost to Drying Grain, Drought and Cold Susceptible Maize, and to Processing Low Quality Grain in the Northern U.S. Market. Adaptation is Everything. Still Most Northern U.S. Hybrids are not Locally Bred. Lines/Hybrids are Provided by Retailer Companies Licensing Products from Foundation Seed Companies Centered in Southern Minnesota (MN). Hybrids are Often Late Maturing Products with Below Average Grain Quality, Drought and Cold Tolerance, and Rate of Dry Down. Hybrids are neither Reliable nor Stable for the Northern USA. Too Many Production Failures since there are no Breeding Programs Locally Developing Products (Industry not actively Present). 2

US Northern Maize Production/Breeding Concerns Hybrids Offered by Retailer Companies have Similar Genetics. Few Hybrids, More Traits, Makes Maize Vulnerable Small Seed Company Quote: “only three lines were viable in industry for northern corn production in 2009” Northern Corn Farmer Quotes: “A 79RM (major company) hybrid failed me in 2008 and 2009, two years in a row (poor moisture and dry down), and this is their earliest hybrid, while the seed price keeps increasing with their trait integration business.” “I want to grow a 72RM corn hybrid. I have been searching for this product in the past 3 years and the earliest product I find is a 79RM hybrid” The Confidential Nature of the Maize Business Limits Breeding Rights to Develop BETTER VERSIONS of Industry Inbred Lines. It Reduces the Breeding Efficiency to Identify the Most Outstanding Hybrid for Farmers. 2

NDSU Maize Breeding Program 80 Years of Continuous Maize Breeding Research, Northern Program in North America Moving Maize North and West. STRATEGICALLY Located to Develop Products under Extreme Environmental Conditions. Large Active U.S. Applied Maize Breeding Program Integrating Pre-Breeding with Cultivar Development (Goals) Several Locations for Maize Breeding Research Serving All Farmers in Both Desirable (High Industry Investment) and Marginal (Low Industry Investment) Environments. Cooperation with >10 Industry Partners for Technology Access. Breeding Access to Checks and Testers, Locations, Equipment, Plots, etc. NDSU has Released 17 Maize Lines, 8 Populations, and 6 Hybrids in the Past 12 Years. Hundreds of Requests for Earliness, Stress Tolerance, Unique Genetic Diversity, Dry Down, and Grain Quality. Unique Alleles not Present in the B73 and/or NAM Genomes Recently Sequenced. 2

TESTING LOCATIONS OF NDSU MAIZE BREEDING RESEARCH How Diverse are Maize Hybrids within and across Companies? How Many Companies Breed Hybrids under these Conditions?

NDSU Maize Breeding Program Addresses: Lack of Genetic Diversity and Earliness Early Corn Limitation – Short-Season Cold Tolerance Fast Dry Down, Test Weight, Grain Quality West Corn Limitation – Short-Season Drought Tolerance NDSU is the Only Program in the West, Winter Cold & Drought Managed Environments Fast Applied Breeding (Two Winter Generations + One Summer per Yr., 3 Times More Efficient than Without Winter Nurseries as Before 1999) Training Breeders for Industry and Public (20/20%)

NDSU PROVIDES UNIQUE AND DIVERSE MAIZE PRODUCTS NOT PRESENT IN INDUSTRY History – NDSU x NDSU (Low Industry Use, some ND203, ND246) 1999-2007 – NDSU x Industry Lines, System Open to All Provided ‘Cheap’ $500/request. (>140 Requests in 2007, 100% Full Funds to Research). Three types of Agreements (MTA, Inbred Research, Commercialization). Releases were Quick. On-Going Additional Efforts – NDSU x NDSU and NDSU x Industry Lines. NDSU Provides Experimental Lines to Foundation Seed Companies, Re-Coding, Protection, Market, and Sell to Retailer Companies in the Northern Market. Releases are Delayed to Give Advantage.

ND2000. Reg. No. PL-306, PI 631394. Released after 4 Years of ND2000 Reg. No. PL-306, PI 631394 Released after 4 Years of Hybrid Tests and RS For Breeding Programs Developing Early-Maturing High Quality Hybrids Distribution to more than 100 institutions NDSU Research Foundation is the Owner Distribution was not Exclusive (Equal Access to All) No PVP Protection “Work Horse” Line for Seed Production Use as Recurrent Parent for EarlyGEM

 Recurrent Selection & Pedigree Selection. Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic  Recurrent Selection & Pedigree Selection Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic 1939 BSSS 1953 B14 1958 B37 1972 BS13(H)C5 B73 1984 BS13(H)C7 B84 1997 BS13(S)C5 B104 2

RECURRENT SELECTION AND LINE DEVELOPMENT RECURRENT SELECTION ELITE X ELITE (2 Types) FAMILY STRUCTURE INBRED LINE DEVELOPMENT EVALUATION TC and SC TRIALS RECOMBINATION RELEASE OF LINES NEXT CYCLE OF SELECTION IMPROVED POPULATIONS

PEDIGREE SELECTION Breeding Stress/Disease TC Prod. Trials 07-08’ S1/2 (3-5,000) S1TC 2T 09’ S3 (3 locs) S3 TC test 09-10’ S4/5 S4TC 4T 10’ S6 TC test S6-8 SC Early and Late Maturity Trials with 8T in 2011

ND2015. No Reg. No. PL-, No PI. Released after 5 Years of ND2015 No Reg. No. PL-, No PI Released after 5 Years of Hybrid Tests: For Breeding Programs Developing Early-Maturing Unique Hybrids Distribution to 1 Institution! NDSU Research Foundation is the Owner Distribution was Exclusive (Not Equal Access to All) PVP Protection by NDSU Marketing Arm NDSU EarlyGEM Product

Inbred Line Development GERMPLASM PRE-BREEDING SOURCES FOR NDSU MAIZE INBRED LINE DEVELOPMENT (adapted from Carena et al., 2009b). Germplasm Improved by Intra & Inter Population Recurrent Selection (RS) (Advanced Cycles, ~10%) NDSU Breeding Sources Inbred Line Development Elite x Elite (within Heterotic Groups, ~40%) (across Heterotic Groups, ~5%) Top Progenies from RS (full sibs, half sibs, S1s, and S2s, with testers) Top Backcross Progenies from NDSU EarlyGEM Adapted Breeding Crosses (~35%) Elite Industry Lines under MTAs (~5%) Germplasm Adapted from Stratified Mass Selection (~5%) 2

NDSU Maize Breeding: Genetic Diversity GEM – Germplasm Enhancement Maize Program, 30 Industry & Public Cooperators, Following LAMP GOAL: To Increase the Genetic Diversity of Industry Hybrids by Incorporating Unique Tropical and Temperate Corn NDSU EarlyGEM Program: Unique to NDSU, Provides Industry the Chance to Access Unique Tropical and Late Temperate Maize NDSU Leads the First Long-Term Continued Effort to Incorporate GEM Germplasm in the Northern U.S. Over 10,000 BC1 Lines Screened so far. First Release/Distribution of Breeder Seed in 2011. NDSU EarlyGEM

Inspiration! NDSU EarlyGEM

90RM GEM Lines Vs. 85RM Industry Development of High Quality Drought Tolerant Maize for Utilization in the Northern U.S. NDSU Genetics Provided Superior Performance Not Only in Yield, Test Weight, Drought Tolerance But Also in Grain Quality Drought Tolerance 193.8 % Yield Under Stress Extractable Starch 67.8% vs. 64.2% Fermentable Starch 16.6% vs. 16.4% Grain Protein 10.5% vs. 9.4% (AA profile too) Grain Oil 4.3% vs. 3.5%

PREVENTING JOB AND WEALTH MIGRATION FROM RURAL ND Trotters, Western ND Hwy 16 I am an amateur photographer and I continuously witness the loss of rural population (e.g. Trotters) NDSU Maize Breeding for High Extractable Starch under Drought Stress is a Solution in Areas with Cheap Energy for Ethanol Processing. Most Ethanol Plants are Located in the West. Without Short-Season Drought Tolerance, no Product Utilization Trotters, Western ND 2

NDSU Maize Breeding Results: Drought and Cold ESSENTIAL!: WINTER NURSERY IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE (New Products Developed in 4 Yrs. Vs. 12 Yrs, SEED PRODUCTION DROUGHT SCREENING DROUGHT TESTING NDSU Maize Breeding Efforts for Drought And Cold Tolerance Supported By MN and ND Corn Grower Associations Table 1. Results of Single-Cross Corn Hybrid Experiments in 2005. Summary of Top 15 Corn Hybrids. Commercial Hybrids in Blue did not Make the Top List. Table 1. Results of Single-Cross Corn Hybrid Experiments in 2005. Summary of Top 15 Corn Hybrids. Commercial Hybrids in Blue did not Make the Top List. Table 1. Results of Single-Cross Corn Hybrid Experiments in 2005. Summary of Top 15 Corn Hybrids. Commercial Hybrids in Blue did not Make the Top List.

NDSU Maize Breeding Results: Earliness Stratified Mass Selection provides earlier products at less than $200 per population 20,000 400 20,000 400 Cycle 3 (C3) Plants Evaluated Plants Selected (only 2% each time)

NDSU Maize Breeding Results: Earliness Millions of Dollars from NSF and USDA are Still Being Utilized for Molecular Studies on non-Desirable Traits for Breeding (e.g., Flowering, Easy to Measure and Screen for). NDSU has Made Maize Earlier at an Average Rate of 2.5 Days per Year. ISU even more. Cost: Less than a Penny per Plant Evaluated, a Cost/Efficient way of Moving Maize North. Without Exceptions, all Tropical and Late Temperate Maize have been Successfully Adapted. After Selecting for Earliness Yield = +20 to 40 bu/ac Grain Moisture = -8 to -12 % Test Weight = +2 to 3.5 lb/bu Plant and Ear Height = -9 to -28 cm or -4 to -11 inches 2

A NEW METHOD FOR ESTIMATING RATE OF DRY DOWN NDSU Corn Breeding Results: Dry Down A NEW METHOD FOR ESTIMATING RATE OF DRY DOWN Area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) AUDPC is used to summarize the progress of disease severity. We Proposed: Area under the dry down curve (AUDDC) Larger AUDDC area, representing slower dry down progress Smaller AUDDC area, representing faster dry down progress

IN THE PIPELINE: 1) Development of the Next Generation Healthier Corn Products: Adaptation of QPM Products, EarlyGEM lines, New Populations (NDSS, NDL, NDBS11, EarlyGEM Synthetics for Different Traits) New Index/Quality Factor: Quality/Acre Screen from Current 4,000 to 25,000 Plots 2) Ex-PVP Lines, Evaluation of their Usefulness, Unique hybrid Combinations not Tested Before 3) On-going intra- and inter-Population Improvement Programs

Major Applied Breeding Concerns 1) Infrastructure: Cold Storage, Equipment, Personnel for Public Breeding Programs Addressing Long-Term Goals of Adaptation and Improvement. Not Very Popular among Grant Donors but Need Priority on Brainstorming Ideas before going after Funding. 2) Research Emphasis: Need more Innovation Research and Less “Cutting Edge” (what Everybody does). 3) Cooperation: Active cooperation with Industry should Provide Access to Latest Technology and should Prevent Spending Millions in Academic Labs that Become Obsolete Very Quickly (Indirect Costs should be Eliminated to Stop Vicious Circle in the Public Sector). 2

Major Applied Breeding Concerns 4) Germplasm Exchange: Think before Making Exclusive Agreements, Limiting Breeding Access. The Best Cultivar for your Area Might Never be Made. Will Royalties be the Only Way to Fund Public Breeding Programs? 5) Traits: Do Breeding Programs Target Traits with New Technologies? Markers, for instance, were Originally Created to Solve Breeder Challenges with Quantitative Traits that are Difficult to Measure. Do we need Markers for Maize Flowering? Too many Resources have been used without Targeting Traits. 6) Germplasm: Without Choosing, Sampling, and Locally Adapting Unique/Elite Germplasm Neither Traditional Breeding Techniques nor Modern Techniques will Succeed. 2

Major Applied Breeding Concerns 7) Hybrids: Each Successful Hybrid has its Own Combination of Genetic Effects. Sample Sizes for Basic Experiments (e.g., QTL) are Limited. Genome Sequence Information Could Complement ‘Traditional’ Quantitative Genetic Studies on DH or Other Breeding Populations. 8) Recurrent Selection and Genetically Broad-Based Germplasm: Breeding Programs Improving Genetically Broad-Based Germplasm Could Provide National Labs Unique Genetic Materials for Additional Sequencing Efforts and Increase the Sample Size Currently Limited by B73 and NAM, Identify Unique Alleles. Few Extensive Recurrent Selection Programs are Left that could Validate Models for New Selection Methodologies (e.g., GWS). 2

Conclusions There is a Need for Vital Projects to Agricultural Applied Research that will Meet Present and Future Demands of Superior Genotypes Tolerant to Climate Changes in the U.S. and Abroad. Training the Next Generation of Breeders Need Major Exposure to Germplasm Improvement AND Cultivar Development Breeding Programs Addressing Climate Change Challenges are Essential for the Future Sustainability of Corn Production not only in Current Production Areas but Also in Areas Where Corn Production is Headed. Breeding Programs Should Adapt, Improve, and Develop Elite and Unique Germplasm Through Most Efficient (old and new) Breeding Strategies Depending on Cost and Impact. 2

Conclusions Adaptation to Climate Changes Requires Improvement of Traits Quantitatively Inherited Largely Influenced by the Environment. These Traits are Often Controlled by Hundreds of Genes and Their Interactions and are Difficult to Measure. Ideas to Overcome the Evaluation of Such Traits should be a Priority. Long-term Activities to Adapt and Maximize Genetic Improvement of Elite Germplasm under Climate Changes are Required. This will be the Source of Unique Cultivars that will Meet the 21st Century Demands of Food, Feed, Fuel, and Fiber. Applied Breeding Programs are the Only Ones that can Meet Future Environmental Changes and Applied Plant Breeding Capacity Building will be Essential. 2

Acknowledgements Minnesota Corn Growers Association North Dakota Corn Council Utilization North Dakota Corn Growers Association North Dakota State Board of Ag. Research North Dakota Ethanol Producers Assn. USDA-GEM BASF/Thurston Genetics AgReliant Genetics Monsanto DuPont/Pioneer Hi-Bred International Syngenta Laboulet Semences Ag Solutions Dow/Mycogen SGI Genetics CIMMYT/FAO/European public partners